Ever since the disputed Iranian elections of 2009, I have believed that Ahmadinejad was fraudently elected. Why? Because that’s what I was told. Allegations of vote tampering were repeatedly asserted. There were protests on the street. The narrative seemed true. However, I have recently realised that, considering how the MSM media lied about Egypt, is lying about Wisconsin and has lied about nearly every important issue in the last decade or so, the narrative about the Iranian elections may also be false, or at least exaggerated.

Now, please don’t get me wrong. I do not in any way support the repressive Iranian regime. I’m just unsure as to whether Ahmadinejad was elected or not. To satisfy this truth craving I’ve recently been meandering through articles and essays concerning the 2009 election and its outcome. Through the course of this journey I have encountered very emotive arguments for and against the allegations of fraud, leaving me none the wiser as to who is actually correct. However, I also found this:

http://brillwebsite.com/writings/iran2009election.html

This incredibly in depth essay seems to objectively rebuke every allegation of fraud against Ahmadinejad and in favour of Mousavi. It provides logical and reasonable explanations, it points out misinformation and fallacies, it contains numbers that appear to add up. It is either a fantastic piece of investigative journalism, or the most brilliant piece of propaganda that I have ever seen. Either way I invite you to read it with an open, but vary wary, eye.

I still don’t know who won that election, but I’ll be dammed if I allow somebody else to make up my mind for me.

“Never assume the obvious is true.” ~  William Safire

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ghsts
Member

Caru keep your doubt as long as you can, in questioning all truths, all facts you may never fall victim to the hubris that destroys progress and enlightenment from both sides.

KQµårk 死神
Member

Well I know Gore won in 2000 but that didn’t seem to matter.

Khirad
Member

You’ll forgive me, but I’m just too tired to pull up all my 2009 resources or argue what I think is besides the point anyway – whoever won or not, the constitution of the Islamic Republic of Iran guarantees free association and free assembly in articles 26 and 27.

There’s quite a few holes in Eric A. Brill’s piece, who is a writer, I should add, for the premier apologist site, Race For Iran. For those whom aren’t familiar with these American supporters of human rights violations:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/josh-shahryar/the-real-race-for-iran-hu_b_625225.html

I, for the record, am agnostic. There is no way to prove it either way, and that is how they like it. Mohsen Rezaei’s intitial objections sure raised my eyebrows though (he was the pragmatic conservative candidate and former IRGC commander for 16 years). The Ministry of Interior’s numbers do not have to cohere to local tallies. And, they can be made to anyway. It’s why in Khatami’s first election, Rafsanjani’s daughter took a coterie with her to make sure no shenanigans occurred.

This past time around, Ahmadinejad had stacked the Ministry of the Interior and provincial Governors (an article I’ve lost, but which was hard to brush aside), and that should raise eyebrows too. Anyone who has taken the time to read about all the electoral fraud in the past would not bat an eye that this could have been stolen. I find Eric A Brill’s handle on electoral history in IRI history tenuous, or, just disingenuous. I have a few books for him to read.

Unless, of course, he thinks the election of Rafsanjani in 1989 with 94.5% of the vote was completely clean, as well. To be honest, I wonder if Khatami really won his second election in 2001. Since Banisadr (impeached for being too moderate) and Rajai (assassinated by the MeK), Khamenei, Rafsanjani, Khatami and Ahmadinejad have all won reelection. I think that for one of them to lose would say that the velayat-e faghih was faulty. Ergo, it would say that this vice regency of God was not in line with God’s perfection (Ray Takeyh does a better job than I explaining this weird logic).

Even had he won (and it would have been slimmer, if past performance is any clue) – there is a concerted contempt for democracy.

The Chatham House is of course the most famous for the election fraud theory:

http://www.juancole.com/2009/06/chatham-house-study-definitively-shows.html

As were Nate Silver’s:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/06/iran-does-have-some-fishy-numbers.html

These are partly what Eric A. Brill was responding to, if I recall correctly.

If we wanna even get into polling, pieces like this must also be considered.

Study Reveals Ahmadinejad Supporters in Rural Areas No Longer Back Him
http://www.insideiran.org/featured/study-reveals-ahmadinejad-supporters-in-rural-areas-no-longer-back-him/

And that Ahmadinejad knows Azeri is bullshit to explain his performance in East Azerbaijan Province. Does he also know Luri? How the hell did he win Lorestan Province (Karroubi’s home) with those preposterous numbers? To win that big would have practically required Karroubi’s relatives to vote against him! Never mind the questions of how Ahmadinejad got a doctorate.

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/tehranbureau/2010/03/ahmadinejad-and-his-men-embodiments-of-fraud-and-corruption.html

More counterpoints.

Why Ahmadinejad Did Not Win
Muhammad Sahimi

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/tehranbureau/2009/06/why-ahmadinejad-did-not-win.html

Iran’s Stolen Election
Ahmad Salamation

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/tehranbureau/2009/07/irans-stolen-election.html

Who Won the Disputed Iran Election? (pretty good rundown)
James the Hype

http://www.dissectednews.com/2010/05/who-really-won-the-disputed-iran-election.html

And since, way too much material such as this has trickled out (some from Persian sites I can’t find anymore).

Audio Reveals IRGC’s Interference in Presidential Election
http://www.insideiran.org/media-analysis/audio-reveals-irgc%E2%80%99s-interference-in-presidential-election/

WINEP is really an arm of AIPAC, so take it with a big grain of salt, but be that as it may, this provided some valuable key structural points.

http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2009/06/irans_voting_manipulation_indu.html

Bottom line. They are not free in the first place, with the Guardian Council vetting candidates – and the Guardian Council being but an organ of the Supreme Leader (whose preferred candidate has been made crystal clear). No free election includes issuing warrants before the vote for Mousavi aides and the storming of their offices and the cutting off of cell phone/SMS services (the same befell Khatami, whose Reformists had not been so gutted at that point from oversight power).

Furthermore, the Supreme Leader violated all protocol in not waiting the requisite weekent for a full count (of which it is NOT computerized! How did they get a hand count THAT FAST?!) and declaring Ahmadinejad the president during Friday Prayers following the election. The irony is, is that it is within the realm of possibility Ahmadinejad could have won (though this would have been against all previous trends, and nearly unprecedented in avoiding an outright runoff). The polls are worthless, especially the Terror Free Tomorrow one, which was taken before the Mousavi campaign had even taken off. Never mind refusal rates and non-answers (everyone in Iran knows how to speak in code over the phone). The University of Maryland one is also interesting, if you actually read the full thing. It actually doesn’t prove anything, but even a bit of the opposite, actually!

But, on the more general leftist confusion, of which, thank god, you are not a part.

Iran and Leftist Confusion
by Reese Erlich

http://www.commondreams.org/view/2009/06/28-10

Left is wrong on Iran
Hamid Dabashi

http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2009/956/op5.htm

America’s Misguided Left
Muhammad Sahimi

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/tehranbureau/2009/07/americas-misguided-left.html

Chomsky on Iran

http://www.worldpress.org/Mideast/3391.cfm

ADONAI
Member

I just don’t think it really matters.

Once Iran nukes Israel, we’re all dead anyways.

KillgoreTrout
Member

I don’t think that will ever happen. Because of the sheer stupidity of such an act. Assured mutual destruction is still a very valid principle.
Nuking Israel would mean the total destruction of Iran.
I know there are christian fundamentalists that would like nothing better. it would support their insane belief in Armageddon.

ADONAI
Member

I think you underestimate how much the people over there hate Israel.

KillgoreTrout
Member

Oh, I have no doubt about their hatred for Israel. But I don’t believe that hatred would lead them to suicide.

ADONAI
Member

They run into cafes with bombs strapped to their chests.

But you are most likely right. They just don’t seem THAT crazy.

Fingers crossed though!

Khirad
Member

Or the other way around.

By the way, here’s a whole other subject of which I think is being played up way too much and which I could let loose the links on, as well.

ADONAI
Member

Indeed

JackRusselTerrier
Member
JackRusselTerrier

Do you know who really won the recent elections in The United States?

Truth
Member

JackRussell, very pleased to see you!

Hay Zeus Boodah
Member
Hay Zeus Boodah

Corporations….They always do !

KB723
Guest
KB723

JackRussel I KNOW who won and it wasn’t the Americans.

Plutocrats really suck
Member
Plutocrats really suck

Well, they tell us who won so it has to be true. 🙄

ADONAI
Member

The Republicans.

2ndClassCitizenPundit
Member

That depends on your definitions.

jkkFL
Guest

I went to AlJazeera to pick up their views on the election:

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/02/201122053957526278.html
http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2009/06/2009613181040285185.html
http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2009/06/200961111422655588.html
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/tehranbureau/2010/06/irans-rural-vote-and-election-fraud.html
I have added a brief comment from PBS..

I see no indication to accept the theory that the election was fair; and my reading these articles have not changed my mind.

St James
Member
St James

Perhaps the best lesson we can learn from this is to stay out of the
foreign revolution business.

2ndClassCitizenPundit
Member

Oh, please, gods yes!

The best way to lead is by example. Let people observe how it works on their own, and they’ll do their best.

Of course, I’ve also been a big proponent of the “clean up your own backyard first”. And by “your”, I mean “our”.

jkkFL
Guest

Hmm.. you certainly have hit on a sensible idea..
Gonna take that to DC? 🙂

PocketWatch
Member

StJ – I’m thinkin’ …. um…. yeah!

PocketWatch
Member

I just flash-read the whole paper concerning the Iranian election. Whew! I smell a rat, and not necessarily on the side of the winner. Why has the loser insisted that a do-over take place while ALSO insisting that no serious fact-finding, or even cursory looks take place?

Now, don’t get me wrong, I’m no fan of the current Iranian regime, but it appears that 62% of its people are. That’s what – it seems to me – the US and others are concerned about in Egypt and elsewhere these days.

Just because WE don’t like a country’s regime and politics, doesn’t mean THEY shouldn’t like it.

The only criticism I can find in the whole piece is that it doesn’t seem to address the possibility of coersion BEFORE the election (vote for X, or you’ll have serious issues!).

If what the article says is true, or even somewhat true, the vote was correct.

Khirad
Member

Eric A. Brill is the consummate apologist. Such inconvenient facts are brushed aside. He also twists reality.

Who said they wanted no fact finding? And who says they’ve offered no evidence? LMAO! Like that evidence would be acknowledged if it were presented!!! It begs credulity.

I don’t care what the US policy on Iran is.

No political system can survive by relying on coercion, imposition, and guardianship, and only those governments that rely on the people can achieve stability.

The Islamic Republic is neither Islamic nor a republic; it is a military government.

– Grand Ayatollah Hossein-Ali Montazeri

PocketWatch
Member

Khirad,

Since I don’t know enough to really have a certain (as in factually based) opinion, and know nothing of the players, I bow to someone that has more expertise.

On the face of it, this guy makes a compelling argument. When faced with an article like this, it is nearly impossible to track down quotes, references, and the like. It would take days, and who’s to know if THOSE are valid or the complete set of facts?

Which brings up another point… I contend that the US (or any governemt, for that matter) government’s foreign policies are generally driven by State Dept. Bureauocracy, not the politicos that come and go, including the President. Experts with experience. Or so it seems… am I miguided in thinking that?

ADONAI
Member

The people of Iran don’t seem to care for him. That woman didn’t get shot at a pro-Ahmadinejad rally.

And 85% is a pretty goddamn big total to win no matter where you are.

But maybe he is legit. Just too much circumstantial evidence going against it though.

Either way, he seems like a loudmouthed idiot.

Kalima
Admin

Or that this was never said by Neda’s mother before the gathering of the dead on the 30th of July 09.

““You can’t blame young people for going out and wanting to feel free,” Neda Soltan’s mother Hajar said in interview published by the Australian broadcaster ABC.
Hajar Soltan (translated): I want to thank politicians and leaders from every country at all levels who remembered my child. Her death has been so painful. Words can never describe my true feelings.
But knowing that the world cried for her, that has comforted me. I am proud of her. The world sees her as a symbol and that makes me happy.
It was all about being young and feeling passionate about freedom. She wasn’t political. She didn’t belong to any party or group. She didn’t support any faction. Every other young Iranian was there and she was one of them.
She was very special. She finished high school and then got married. Philosophy and theology were her favourite subjects. She was a spiritual person. She believed in God. She loved music.
You can’t blame young people for going out and wanting to feel free. She had dreams like any other young person but she wasn’t given the chance to make her dreams come true.
But there was one dream she spoke about very openly – that she longed to become a mother. She used to ask me, how does it feel to be a mother? What is it like? And this for me is the most painful thing of all. She got married but she never had a child. She lived with her husband but they separated after three years and for the past couple of years she was living with me.”
For all of our burdens, we should also remember how lucky we are to be living in relative freedom day in, day out.”