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Comments Posted By agrippa

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Election Night Thread – 3-8-2016

Someone will be nominated; someone will be elected.
Whoever is elected will be hated by half the population.

Between the conventions and the election will be an outbreak of invective and fulmination. Having a sense of humor would be useful.

The next four years will be interesting.
This year should have been no surprise.
The two parties – both an amalgam of factions antagonistic to each other – had no one of any stature to run. They still do not.
Sanders is not a Democrat; Trump is not GOP. They, both, saw an opportunity and took it.

Both are “anti establishment” insisting they will answer questions that have been asked and answered.

It will be interesting to see how they deal with the organization that they purportedly belong to. The two parties are the Washington establishment.
If Sanders wins, he will make his peace with the party. At the end of the day, he a member of the Establishment.

So will Trump, as he is a member of the Establishment.
All that applies to Clinton, if she is nominated.

In the new year, after the election, expect a lot of wailing and gnashing of teeth, jumping up and down, hollering “Oh my God”. It will, at the end of the day, amount to two bald men fighting over a comb. All that will go on for a while; but it subside.

But, the great mass of ordinary people do not care – they hardly bother to vote – and Washington, for them, can do whatever it does. Life will go on. It always does.

» Posted By agrippa On March 13, 2016 @ 8:59 am

You succeed in living up to those principals. Kudos

» Posted By agrippa On March 9, 2016 @ 5:53 pm

There is a lot of media hype nowadays. 24/7 cable; the internet with all the news websites, opinion websites, blogs, etc, etc.
A lot of the news is essentially un-sourced; opinion websites are full of hyperventilating rhetoric and invective. Comments frequently amount to little more than anonymous poison pen letters.
it is like an anvil chorus.
But, there are a lot fewer reporters, a lot fewer newspapers. There are entire subjects that are missed: Congress slighted; foreign news is slighted; etc.

Planetpov is a cut above the average political website. It is one of two that I post comments on.

» Posted By agrippa On March 9, 2016 @ 4:25 pm

I hope that you are correct.
The two factions of the Democratic Party have to come together for the common good.
GOTV is very necessary.

GOTV is necessary for off year elections. Too many people disremember those.

» Posted By agrippa On March 9, 2016 @ 2:23 pm

This is a very interesting election, or could be. The baby boom generation is passing on and the younger people will have to earn their spurs. The baby boom generation is the Establishment ( having once been “anti establishment”). The baton is being passed.

Implied in this post is the notion that the younger people will have choice between a left wing savior ( Sanders) and right wing savior ( Trump). If Sanders is nominated.
Clinton is just about the last of the baby boomers; an experienced politician in an election fraught with anti politician. But, there is no such thing as an “anti politician”, and there is no savior. You have mere mortals; that is all that you have.

There is, down the road from the WH, two bodies of 535 ( 435 and 100) who are one third of the Government. None of those 535 take orders from the WH.

» Posted By agrippa On March 9, 2016 @ 8:42 am

A lot of people do not like Hillary Clinton. I had had enough of the Clintons in 2000; but, they are still around. I guess that it was too much to ask to expect them to retire. I wanted new people. I guess that the Democratic Party does not have any. Sanders is not a Democrat.
It will be a while before this is sorted out, and someone will be nominated.
If it is Sanders vs Trump it will mean both candidates will know nothing of foreign policy and both will be non party. In either case, a person who will sort those people out will be elected; and, save the country from ________ at the same time.

No one is this field is a fit replacement for PBO.

It is a consequence of people not caring about or hating politics, not bothering to learn about it, not bothering to vote.

» Posted By agrippa On March 9, 2016 @ 4:30 am

I think that we have a very low quality field of candidates for both parties. The Democrats have only Clinton and Sanders. Clinton has very high negatives and Sanders is not a Democrat.
I wanted to see the Clintons retire from public life; but, I guess that they are too young for that. I was hoping for someone better; but, there really is not. You deal with what you have.
The GOP is worse; they had another “clown car”. That bunch is, literally, beyond words. Very sad.
Both Parties could have and should have done better.

I am glad that we had PBO for President for eight years. Eight years of calm and rational leadership; even keel all the way. Of course, he was hated by the right as a ___________ ( name the insult) and hated by the left as a ______ ( name the insult). He can handle that and so can I.
I am glad he was there.

Of course there is nothing unusual about the USA electing ciphers ( or worse) as President. We have survived them all; we will survive whatever cipher is elected in November.

People either do not care about or hate politics. That attitude has consequences.

» Posted By agrippa On March 8, 2016 @ 6:35 pm

LIVE CHAT TONIGHT: Republican Debate in Detroit @ 6:00pm PST

Those who support Clinton and those who support Sanders have to understand that the Party will have to come together.
You can, of course decide to follow the GOP and create antagonistic factions.
it is very unlikely that the Democratic Party will get a majority in the HoR. The Senate is in play; but, the House, more likely than not, is not in play. That means that domestic reform is very unlikely.

Democrats need to watch this meltdown and learn not to do the same thing themselves.

» Posted By agrippa On March 3, 2016 @ 5:59 pm

The Clueless GOP Pours Romney Gas on the Trump Fire

The GOP may not be able to get its’ act together; so be it.
That is not my problem.

But, The Democratic Party needs to stay together. If you lose the nomination, you support the winner. If you win, exercise good sportsmanship.

Both parties can break up into antagonistic factions if that is what people decide they want to do. That choice has consequences.

Keep in mind that there is a country to govern. This country is too large to be an insane asylum.

» Posted By agrippa On March 3, 2016 @ 5:39 pm

In my lighter moments I call this the “Seinfeldization” of American politics.

The torrent of puerile abuse from Trump will continue – all the way to November.

Will it succeed? There is a real risk that it will. And Trump will be elected President.
Keep in mind that there is a lot of fear, anger and free floating hostility. That all comes frustration over flat/falling incomes/loss of manufacturing, too many non whites, and the fact that GOP voters were being used.

The present is grim and the future looks just as grim.

What Romney said about Trump is true and accurate. But, that is a plus for Trump.

Many people are fully aware that he is a vulgar charlatan.
That is precisely why they will vote for him.

» Posted By agrippa On March 3, 2016 @ 2:28 pm

Election Day Thread – Super Tuesday Primaries 2016

» Posted By agrippa On March 2, 2016 @ 7:02 am

The Case for/against Hillary Clinton

I agree that Trump is a little too crude for the gentlemen in the GOP. Thus, an embarrassment. I expect that Trump will be nominated.
Clinton is a bulldog and not nice.
It will be a real fight; but, Clinton looks like the nominee to me. I will vote for either Clinton or Sanders.

» Posted By agrippa On March 11, 2016 @ 11:18 am

The Democrats cannot afford to self destruct like the GOP is doing.

» Posted By agrippa On March 3, 2016 @ 5:47 pm

I expect that this cycle will be the most divisive and rancorous since 1968.
You need to be prepared for that.
Here, in TX, the people vote GOP and will vote whoever is nominated by the GOP. I doubt that very many GOP voters anywhere in the USA will refuse to vote Trump. Party loyalty will demand it.

If a Democratic nominee is elected, there may be a Democratic majority in the Senate. The odds of a Democratic majority in the HoR is very low.
I think that a GOP majority in both Houses is likely.
If Hillary or Sanders is President, divided government is likely. Thus, we will have gridlock.

I expect Trump to be nominated by the GOP.
I expect that a great majority of GOP voters will vote for him.
If he is elected, he will have a GOP majority in both Houses.
Trump is not a Republican, he is a Trumpist.
At worst, we will have a man on horseback who will save the country.
At best, an unknown quantity.

In Jan 2017, we will have a President who is hated by half the country.

» Posted By agrippa On March 3, 2016 @ 4:49 am

You are welcome.
It is very important that “lefties” and “progressives” to get organized and get elected to office at the lower levels – local and state. Then, building a base, climb the ladder to Washington.

People like Sanders have good ideas; if these ideas are to gain support it will take people organizing and getting elected. It is a long road.

» Posted By agrippa On March 1, 2016 @ 3:56 pm

I agree with this article.
Today, I voted for Sanders ( heart) out of idealism.
But, I support Clinton ( head).
I think that Libya was a big mistake, for reasons of state ( Raison d’etat). In foreign policy, reasons of state – head headed ( and hard hearted) realism – are very important. Realism indicated that Gaddafi stay in power. Ignore reality at your peril.
She needs to learn that lesson. I presume that she has.
She will be far more practical than anyone from the GOP.

I agree that we will continue to have a GOP Congress. A Democratic president is a necessary counterweight. Gridlock is ugly; but, it is continuing reality. So, Domestic Reform is not very likely.

“Lefties” and “Progressives” do need to get elected at the local and state level and climb the ladder. The GOP basically runs state and local government.

» Posted By agrippa On March 1, 2016 @ 12:17 pm

Election Day Thread – GOP SC Primary and Dem NV Caucus – 2-20-2016

The WH, in the USA, does foreign policy. Congress, most of the time, is not involved.

And, so much of foreign policy is for “raisons d’etat”. Thus, it is secret. So, we do not know what is being said or done.
We have to trust the President ( whomever that may be) and the people he appoints. We have a pretty good idea who Hillary Clinton would want to have working for her. Knowing the appointees can tell us a lot about the policy of a President.
That is how it will have to go with Sanders. Who are his advisors on foreign policy? As he does not really have a body of work, assessing those people come first.

On foreign policy, the GOP candidates are blind kittens. Full stop.

I am of the view that we do not have a consensus on what to do about domestic issues; and, Congress does that by passing legislation ( which is very difficult thing for a legislator to do). If Clinton or Sanders is elected, I see another divided government. Members of the HoR have, for the most part, have safe seats; and, do not lose reelection. Resulting in a GOP HoR.

Because we have first past the post, and no proportional representation, voting for a third party is a mere gesture.

The media is the media. When one comes, they all come; when one leaves, they all leave.

» Posted By agrippa On February 22, 2016 @ 6:03 am

I will vote for either Clinton or Sanders. The GOP people are blind kittens. I am not one who thinks that “the two parties are the same”. They are not.
I am most concerned about foreign policy, as we are living in an “interesting time” and the GOP does not have a clue. I think that
Sanders does need to expand on his foreign policy views, as it is the White House that runs USA foreign policy. I have a fair notion of what Hillary Clinton would do. Sanders, not so much.

And, I do not think that we have anything close to a consensus on domestic issues. I really cannot see a basis for thinking otherwise.

On the domestic side, the mischief that GOP Governors and state Legislatures get up to is a real issue. That is mostly missed at the National level.

I think that PBO has done very well; he had little help from the Democratic controlled Congress when he had one, and the GOP in Congress has done its’ very best to oppose him.
Foreign policy has been mostly damage control; trying to keep the lid on and avoiding more war. Cuba and Iran have been two important successes. I am very glad to see that he was able to do both.

» Posted By agrippa On February 21, 2016 @ 6:57 pm

I cannot say that I care for any of those people running for President, whether they be GOP or Democratic. We have a two party system, with first past the post.
I have very little respect for any of them; I have little respect for their knowledge, wisdom or integrity. They are the epitome of the least common denominator.
But, we do have to pick one. Drat. I prefer Seinfeld; with him, the fatuity is taken pure without the corruption of cant.

I do wish that we had a multi party system with proportional representation. Such a system would have the possibility of including the actual diversity of opinion in the USA. If that results of that cause “government instability” ( “musical chair cabinets”),so be it. I prefer that to government by gridlock and the resultant political cowardice. And, the animosity would be overt rather than covert.

It seems that this election season will say little about foreign policy; owing to the fact that we have the candidates that we have and the politicians that we have and the media that we have, it would be naive to expect an adult debate about foreign policy from those people.

» Posted By agrippa On February 21, 2016 @ 11:35 am

Morning Blog 6th Anniverary Edition

If I were in the UK, I would vote Labour; In Germany, I would voted SPD; in Canada, I would vote Liberal. In The USA, I have to vote Democratic.
We do have a two party, first past the post system. That means that both parties are faction ridden.

Revolution is a word fraught with blood and iron. It is a very romantic word; and phrases like “radical reform” are too abstract to be used in the hyper emotional world of politics.

Then, when the elections are over, you get into the very messy world of governing. There is nothing romantic about governing.

» Posted By agrippa On March 20, 2016 @ 8:59 am

Thanks.
I forget to read Juan Cole at times. He is good.
I am a conservative Liberal; conservative in that change is slow and difficult and is full of “unintended consequences”; conservative in that humans are a complicated mixture of thinking and feeling and are fully capable of anything; conservative in that history shapes the present and the past is not even past.

Liberal in that I believe in trying to move forward in the context of all that written above; liberal in the sense that tolerance is not a virtue, it is a necessity.

I do not believe in “Revolution”. There were two successful revolutions ( in that the revolutionaries accomplished what they set out to do): The Roman Revolution ( Ronald Syme’s book on it) and the US Revolution.

» Posted By agrippa On March 20, 2016 @ 4:53 am

kalima, thank for your morning blog.
It is excellent.

I do not watch TV and read very little in the way of paper copies, except for the “Economist”. That is about the only magazine/newspaper that I buy.
In the quest for actual news and rational analysis ( both are as rare as hen’s teeth) I have to spend a lot of time on line searching for both. You make the task a good bit easier.
The job of an honest reporter is difficult as a source who actually knows has talk to a reporter. And, most “sources” who do know, will not talk to a reporter. Why should they?

And, rational analysis ? lol. That scarcely exists. Finding actual and credible news and rational analysis is a major find.
What passes for news and comment in the MSM is drivel. The BBC is pretty decent as is Al Jazeera.

» Posted By agrippa On March 19, 2016 @ 10:56 am

Thank you for your excellent work. I read your news digest on a regular basis.
In my working days, I went to Europe on business a couple of times every year. So. I have a bit of knowledge and interest in matters not American.

» Posted By agrippa On March 14, 2016 @ 8:54 am

Well done!!

» Posted By agrippa On March 11, 2016 @ 6:18 am

http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/04/the-obama-doctrine/471525/

Good article in the Atlantic.It is well worth reading.

Many of the comments are the anonymous poison pen letters which the internet is renowned for.

» Posted By agrippa On March 11, 2016 @ 6:17 am

I am sorry to read about your wife’s health problems.
I hope she gets well.

» Posted By agrippa On March 1, 2016 @ 5:51 am

Arguing Points To Use Against Your Crazy Uncle Supporting Police Brutality

I agree; on all points.

In regard to the ‘war on drugs’, I think we are seeing the negative consequences of trying to enforce unpopular laws.
I think that is part of the problem.
Reaching a boiling point is a good way to put it.

» Posted By agrippa On May 4, 2015 @ 7:56 pm

A significant point to be made is that black people have two serious impediments: poverty and race. I think that it is a close run thing as to what is a more serious impediment.
Being born poor means that you cannot make any mistakes; in order to make something of yourself you have to strong, persistent, ambitious and lucky. Many poor whites are are in a similar fix as those black people who are born poor.
But, poor white people have a fortunate skin color – blacks do not.
There remains – although I think that it has decreased – a significant amount prejudice against black people.
I am not sure what is more important.

I think that there is a problem with the police culture. It appears to have an ‘us vs them’ mentality. We are ‘the thin blue line’. And, “we do not do anything like civilians”, to quote a police officer that I spoke to. And, there appears to be a code of silence. “Good cops” are silent about “bad cops”

We are, also, dealing with class prejudice. Those conservatives cited in the article, are, also, prejudiced against poor white people.
Being poor is a personal vice.

The Police have to live by “Peelian Principles:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peelian_Principles

» Posted By agrippa On May 4, 2015 @ 8:59 am

What do Republicans Stand For?

Those people praising Putin were amusing to me. But, not so much as they would be tyrannical little yes men under a tyrant.

Unfortunately, many ( if not most) people are disconnected from politics – uninformed and inactive. So, the GOP elected officials can do what they like with impunity.
I do not think that will change. I see many years of stagnation, economic, social and political.

» Posted By agrippa On April 8, 2015 @ 5:52 am

First, I think that the GOP stands for deference and obedience. It is the duty of low ranking people to show respect for and obey their betters. That duty is not reciprocal.
Second, religion is useful as a social control. The poor will always be with us; and salvation will come in the hereafter.
Third, if you want peace, prepare for war. The world is a jungle and a country must always be ready to defend its’ honor.
Fourth, the business of the USA is business. “They hired the money, didn’t they?”
Fifth, do as I say, not as I do.

» Posted By agrippa On April 7, 2015 @ 1:47 pm