The Brexit referendum vote in the UK, which resulted in telling the UK to leave the EU, was a little more complex than the core supporters of Brexit would admit. There were of course many voters who voted for it because they are xenophobes and racists but there appear to be many who voted for it out of ignorance, either deceived by the pro-Brexit propaganda or to “send a message”.
One can hardly sympathize with the “send a message” voters who, after the destruction to their economy, whined “I thought it wouldn’t pass anyway.” Now they want a re-do of the vote to “really” vote and while that would be a good thing for the UK and world economy, admitting you’ve been an idiot and used your vote to restructure the UK’s economic and political status like a thumbs down on a Yahoo comment, is not impressing anyone with showing someone worthy of getting to vote again in a do-over.
Of course, the MSM which has been co-financing Donald Trump’s campaign through in-kind contributions of billions of dollars in free airtime, was quick to try and re-inflate the sagging Trump campaign by parroting that this proves Donald Trump could win the Presidency.
No, it doesn’t.
There are big difference between the UK and the US (and not just the windshield vs. “windscreen” crap) in demographics, politics and the fact that Donald Trump is not an organization of sovereign states that our country belongs to (yet).
To begin, there is little question that the core Brexit voters want to leave the EU because of their anger at immigration (and out of resentment that Germany doesn’t have a leader with a small moustache). These core voters, not too dissimilar from Trump’s core voters, are markedly racists, poorly educated, more rural, more elderly and look goofy when wearing baseball caps.
Oh, and did I mention they’re white? Really, really, really white?
The UK is 87% white and known for being very provincial (IOW, anti-immigrant). That’s a huge base to try and gain a majority from, especially in the current global environment of the wealthy robbing the 99% of their standard of living and pointing at the “others” as the phony cause for that.
Though there were high profile supporters of Brexit including ex-London Mayor Boris Johnson and UKIP Leader and Antichrist groupie, Nigel Farage but they were not the ones being voted for, it was a vote on a referendum that had been wholly propagandized.
The fact that Johnson and Farage and the Pro-Brexit movement lied hugely to the public to get it passed is similar to Trump’s compulsive lying but similarity does not mean things are identical (I drink water and my dog drinks water but only one of us humps people’s legs…but I am going to therapy for it).
WHY BREXIT DOESN’T MEAN TRUMP CAN WIN
- DEMOGRAPHICS – The UK has a white population of 87.1% (AKA “Whitetopia”). The US has a white population of 63.7%. So the pool from which white racists could slither out of is much smaller as a percentage. On the Brexit vote, the “Stay” supporters had an uphill battle along the way because their arguments were primarily intellectual. They tried to invoke fear of economic harm if Brexit passed but compared to “Them immigrants are stealin’ our jobs and women!”, it is a cold and intellectual argument. However, in the U.S. Presidential race, Trump’s attacks on just about everyone but older, white, uneducated males has emotionally energized women, Latinos, African Americans, Muslims, Asians, etc. to register and get out and vote. Polls show Democrats very enthusiastic about voting for Hillary while they show Republicans unenthusiastic about voting for Trump. When it comes to getting out the vote, this is a critical advantage for Dems in most all demographics.
- VOTING FOR A REFERENDUM VS. A PERSON – People in the UK voted for and against a policy which itself, has no character, personality or fake comb over. People in the US will be voting for a person to become President. It’s not a binary vote of “yes” or “no”, Americans will be choosing between two people, comparing the two and voting in a combination of who they like and who they dislike. Also, (unlike Brexit) Donald Trump already has a negative rating among 70% of the population, many Republican politicians and voters are refusing to support him and there’s even a movement within his party to deny him the nomination at the convention. While there may be many independents who support the anti-globalism Trump blathers about disingenuously, they won’t vote for him to advance it if they hate him.
- DIRECT VOTE VS. ELECTORAL COLLEGE – Sometimes, as the quote goes, the masses are asses. Unfortunately, tyrants and tyranny can rise by whipping up the public into a populist furor (or Fuher) and winning a direct vote. One reason The Founders instituted an Electoral College in U.S. elections was to protect our democracy from such a situation. So, does it really matter if Trump is polling nationally close to Hillary? Does that mean he can pull a Brexit? No. Just because Trump may excite racists to turn out in huge numbers in a red state he’s already going to win, it changes nothing. In Presidential elections, it is about winning states, not voters nationally. So national polls are just informational about trends but otherwise have no relation to how much of a landslide or nail biter a Presidential election will be. As it is, counting strongly Democratic and Republican states, Democrats begin being close to winning in the Electoral College from the start. There are swing states that need to be won but few need to be won by Hillary, many need to be won by Trump. Hillary could lose most of them but if she were to win a state like Florida, it wouldn’t matter if she lost other states, she’d still win. Trump has to run the table and with a 70% disapproval rating and the polls reflecting the enthusiasm advantage very much in Hillary’s favor, that is highly unlikely to happen.
- VOTING TRENDS – PM David Cameron was very cocky when he guaranteed the Brexit vote, as a ploy to win what he thought would be a tough election and rally pro-Brexit Conservatives to support him. The polling trends though began moving bit by bit towards pro-Brexit, especially after the Syrian refugee crisis and the Paris attacks by ISIS. Those trends continued to favor Brexit and it was a struggle for Cameron to steer opinion against it. Trump on the other hand is experiencing an ongoing negative trend in support (from his own party as well as others). What’s very interesting is that in most primary races while the GOP Primary was still competitive, undecided voters flocked to Trump’s opponents by wide margins. Trump seems to be the kind of candidate that, the more undecided voters see of him, the less they like him.
So in the end, despite the MSM’s insistence that Brexit proves Trump could win, that’s not the case. Yes, any candidate could win any race, even someone with a 99% chance of losing has a 1% chance of winning so it’s not impossible for Trump to win.
But it is not more likely because Brexit passed in the UK. In fact, polls released since the passage of Brexit show Hillary with a growing lead over Trump (I guess it didn’t look so good for Trump to be applauding the crashing stock markets and Pound while on the world stage, trying to spin it as beneficial as an incentive for wealthy people to fly to his golf courses in the UK and make him richer…and how do the folks in Florida feel about losing tourists to their golf courses?).
It may instead be that the cautionary tale that is the pro-Brexit vote, how it has destabilized the nation politically and economically…and will continue to play out as a disaster over the coming months…may convince many of the (unbelievably!) undecided voters in the U.S. towards the Hillary side to avoid boarding the Trumptanic.