The delusions on the left by some continues.  Every night I see the progressive pundits on MSNBC with big smiles on their faces watching the race thinking it’s in the bag for Obama because the GOP are so batcrapcrazy.  In fact night after night Lawrence O’Donnell with glee says Romney and Ryan will lose the election even though he was so wrong about his previous Pawlenty predictions.  The group think is that Romney is such a bad candidate and big liar that he will never win the presidency.  Folks the left now has it’s own echo chamber and it’s not based in reality.  The big delusion among these pundits and Democrats are that facts and policies matter in the first place to swing voters.  The problem with these predictions are that for the first time in electoral history Romney has enough money to sell the big lie.  In fact at least two big lies are working.

First Ronmey’s continued lie about President Obama ending the work requirement is starting to work with white working class voters.  Some of the recent swing state voting has shown marked improvement by Romney.  What Democrats fail to understand is that in this case the truth does not matter even among some independents.  Because even if Obama is not ending the work requirement now they think he wants to and all they need is the flimsy evidence called a state waiver to believe it.

Secondly seniors are believing the Romney big lie on Medicare.  It’s easy for them to understand Obama is cutting costs %716 billion with Obamacare.  They never trusted Obama anyway so the explanations that there are no benefit cuts as a result play poorly with a bunch of scared seniors.  Florida polls have actually been better for Romney recently even though he wants to kill Medicare as we know it.  Again complacent Dems think that it’s easy to seniors the truth that ending the cuts in the ACA will actually make Medicare insolvent faster, but this assumes the seniors even know what the term ‘insolvent’ means.  They see Romney’s plan as not hurting them because the Republicans cynically are not making many changes to Medicare for voters 55 or older.

There are other key indicators that the president’s chances of reelection are in peril.  On top of that list are voter suppression and a huge money gap.  The GOP is going to litterally give FL to Romney, some way some how Rick Scott will make an inevitable close race turn FL red like it was in 2000.  Voter suppression efforts in PA and OH could be devastating to the Obama campaign as well.  No matter what the GOP wants to sell they have enough money to sell it.  It’s not just that the Romney has enough money to sell one lie, he has enough money to sell ALL his lies until a couple stick.

Things are getting better for Romney in other ways.  No one is asking about his taxes which means no one is talking about his tax plans either.  Sure Dems think we will win the culture war this time because of the war one women, but Dems have never won an election on culture wars.  In fact all the groups Obama counts on are traditionally low turnout voters including single women.  While Republicans thrive and turn out in droves to vote against people they hate like President Obama, Dems need to love their candidate to turn out in great numbers.  While Obama is loved by his real core there are still a big group of ‘dissapointed’ lefties out there holding grudges against Obama.  We don’t hear them much in an election year but that resentment is still there.  There are signs this is true like voter registration for Dems being way down compared to Republicans because of this.

Most of all Democrats are complacent.  They simply think that Romney/Ryan and the GOP are so out there on the right wing that American will never vote for them.  But most of the middle still see the GOP as a viable alternative because they don’t dive past the shinny exterior the GOP wants them to see.  Ironically Ryan does make holding onto the Senate look much better for Democrats which is good because they will be the only backstop with a Romney presidency.

So just to warn you all when the clown show called the RNC convention convenes and Romney is repackaged expect Romney to take a lead in the polls.  The vast majority of his gaffes and missteps will be nothing but distant memories when most people were not watching anyway.  Romney will look like a shinny new car even though he was totaled because most voters won’t bother to check the Carfax.  All his previous gaffes have done is set the expectations so low for Romney in the debates that if he comes close to Obama he wins.  So after Romney becomes the official nominee he can really unload his war chest in the swing states and the big lies will become truths with the voters he needs in November.

The worse part of all is when Romney gets elected he will get all the benefits of an economy Obama saved and slide to an easy reelection.  Romney will increase government spending drastically and get the economy supercharged at least until the next bubble breaks.  Electing Romney would have been like giving FDR only four years to fix the Great Depression so there would have been Republican presidents who are as legendary as FDR is now.

This election is for the heart and soul of America and we could find out that our collective hearts and souls can be bought.

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bito
Member

Thanks to the heads up from Kalima in her Morning Blog on her Tomasky’s review of this topic!!! This man hits it out of the park way so often when he addresses health care it;s amazing!

Please check it out!

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/08/26/romney-and-ryan-are-peddling-fear-to-seniors-by-grossly-distorting-the-facts-on-medicare.html

glenn
Member
glenn

I have been voting for a long time. I think this election is just as important as the elections during the Vietnam War. In my opinion, we are just as divided a nation now as we were then.

None of the polls matter. What matters is that Democrats have to get out and vote. Make sure you are properly registered, according to the new laws (if any) in your state. See if you can help someone else register. Take as many friends as possible to the polls, or encourage them to vote.

I completely agree that Democrats cannot become complacent. We must make sure our voices are heard at the ballot box.

Vote!

choicelady
Member

KQ I do agree that the lies are the thing. I don’t actually worry overly much about the policy lies. Obama is quite capable of reminding people of the truth. What bothers me are the “undercurrent” lies – from the “birther” idiocy on to the meme that catastrophe is looming if Obama is re-elected and many variants on the theme. These are things that don’t actually reach the mainstream media but have a huge impact.

Case in point – the persistent drumbeat that has existed with the NRA and sovereign citizens since Bush I that the government is coming for ya. Black helicopters, UN takeover, roundups of guns, concentration camps etc. The rumors were bad enough under Clinton but are expanding in power and scope today. New book: Amerwrecka says Obama is the most dangerous man EVER and that his re-election will destroy the nation. New film – getting large attention – “2016” by RW pundit and alarmist Dinish D’Souza (himself an immigrant from East Asia) laying out the “dire” truth of Obama’s “real” background and influences.

I thought we’d heard it all back in the 90s when much of this was leveled at Clinton. Yes – it’s precisely what was charged at FDR – a “secret Jew” a “socialist” etc. – but it takes on a new power since this president is Black. We now can see the depths of the roots of fear in the nation against “the other” that influence us powerfully.

Today’s NY Times has a story that is a must read: “Ever Meek, Ever Malleable” by Frank Bruni. It is about a film people cannot accept – “Compliance” that details the horriyingly TRUE story about a series of incidents in 2004 where an authoritative voice of a man on the phone claiming to be a police officer directs other people to do actual, physical harm to totally innocent people on the premise that they stole money. And people complied going as far as sexually assaulting a woman at the direction of this voice.

This is not the first such incident but the only one I know that involves actual harm. In 1963 psychologist Stanley Milgram showed that people would inflict even lethal levels of what they believed to be electric shocks to someone they could hear but could not see. There were no actual shocks, but the subjects did not know that. Sixty-five percent of those supposedly administering shocks of almost lethal proportions, complied EVEN when they were reluctant. Why? A man in a white lab coat told them to.

Milgram was eventually sanctioned for performing the experiment and new ethical guidelines on the use of human subjects was created as a result. It does not, however, change the clear evidence that “being a good German” was not confined to Hitler’s nation. MANY people, even against their best judgment, will comply with horrific directions that cause harm.

Those who refused tended to be “outsiders” – minorities and some women in the main. The rest were not so much in refusal but were emotionally overwhelmed by the experience and could not do it.

Almost NO one challenged the “test” or went to help the “victim”. Obedience to authority – to white coated, white professional authority – was very strong.

So will we believe the Black man whose words and deeds can be verified or the White man whose promises are without credibility? Will we live by the truth – or once again, as we have in many previous circumstances, will we live by the lie?

We will see whether this nation is ready to grow up or not. The outcome will be dire if we do not.

Nirek
Member

KQ, I was talking to my daughters mother-in-law last night . She is British and told me that most Brits have more respect for Obama than Romney. She also said that nobody had any respect for “w”!

Too bad the Brits can’t vote here, huh?

Kalima
Admin

Being a Brit by naturalization, I totally agree Nirek, we do respect your President and have absolutely no respect for the likes of Mitt The Twit. He and people like Palin are the butt of many radio comedy shows that I listen to, and are thoroughly trashed by a bunch of very funny satirists, something the Brits excell at.

I can’t vote here in Japan either, even though I’ve payed more than my share in taxes for over 30 years. The up side, I have national health care, and although it won’t be enough to live on, I’m going to be able to claim a pension when the time comes.

Nirek
Member

I have trouble believing there are so many dumb people. I think it will be a landslide for Obama. The right wing media is calling it close to keep their ratings up.

AdLib
Admin

KQ – Here is Nate Silver’s current projections put on an interactive electoral map:

img

Here’s a link to the interactive map which is fun to play with: http://www.270towin.com/

Nirek
Member

I bet FL will go for Obama.

AdLib
Admin

I’m with you, in the end, I think FL will go for Obama which would create a landslide for him…and a mandate!

KillgoreTrout
Member

This is from TPM’s tracker poll. Ohio, Obama is at 47.8% and Romney at 44.9%. Even though there are a lot of Christian fundies here, I think Obama will carry Ohio. There is a pretty solid middle class here.

South western Ohio is mostly red, they could be a problem.

AdLib
Admin

The two polls that came out today on OH show Obama with a 3 and 6 point lead (shown in my comment below). He’s held a lead there for some time so it’s an encouraging trend. The meme is that no Repub in recent history has won the Presidency without winning OH. It’s just a meme but it sure will be tough for Romney to win without it.

KillgoreTrout
Member

I was just showing TPM’s tracker poll, basically. Yesterday they had Romney up in Fla and Pa. Today, Obama is up in Fla and Pa. I am hesitant to put a lot of stock in polls.

AdLib
Admin

KT – I look at polls only over the long term for the trends, I agree that individual polls are not very meaningful.

The long term trend shows Obama ahead in OH:

img

And notice that only the Repub slanted Rasmussen and Purple Strategies have ever shown Romney with a lead, clearly outliers.

KillgoreTrout
Member

I don’t know KQ, you raise some good points, but I think you are underestimating the dems. Sure there are many who don’t stay informed, point by point, about what’s happening in this race. There are also many dems who would never vote for Romney or any other republican, no matter what.

Obama still has an overall lead among Americans. It’s not a very big lead, but it’s still a lead, none the less. I also think you may be underestimating our seniors’ intelligence.

Another factor in all this is the debates. I think the presidential debates will have a fairly large effect, IF the moderators do their jobs correctly and ask the tough questions.

I think the majority of people in the middle class know that Romney has no interest in strengthening the middle class. Then there are minorities, and women that see right through Romney’s grand charade, especially Latinos.

I’m not saying Obama is a shoe in, and you are right to advise on the side of caution. I do think this will be a close election, and it’s not impossible that a Romney win could happen. I don’t think he will win though. I think Obama will carry the required number of electoral votes needed to win.

Olderandwiser55
Member
Olderandwiser55

True. I’m in Colorado and Romney has his own commercials plus the republican national plus two super pacs… So at times I’m seeing one Obama commercial to four against.

This short video I loved and I wanted to share.

“In remarking on the political divisiveness and social unrest of an historically polarizing election and in commenting culturally and metaphorically on Victor Hugo’s fictional historic struggle at the barricades of freedom, “One Term More”, with deep affection and utmost respect, parodies the inimitable
“One Day More!”

http://www.onetermmore.com/video_subtitles.html

AdLib
Admin

KQ, you’re right on the money with your caution on becoming complacent and believing that because Romney, Ryan and the GOP are so wrong on the issues, so extreme and such liars that voters will naturally recognize this and re-elect Obama. That’s what Dems thought when Reagan was running and when Bush was running. You just can’t take anything for granted in politics, especially that the majority will recognize what a disaster a candidate is.

Obama could lose, especially if people become overconfident about his winning and don’t work as hard as they can to make it happen.

That said, as I’ve often mentioned, there is a mathematical reality to winning sufficient electoral votes to become President and the numbers still don’t show Romney has a likely path to it. Here are the latest polls:

img

http://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/president/

While you’re right that Romney and the RW SuperPACS are spending millions and eventually billions on ads hammering lies about Obama on his Medicare savings, welfare, etc., we do need to recognize that Obama’s and pro-Obama SuperPAC ads hammering Romney have been and continue to be very effective too.

This is not a one-sided fight, as has often been the case with the GOP vs. Dems, this time, the Dem is fighting back smartly and hard.

I mentioned in an earlier post today that Obama continues to hold onto a solid lead in OH and PA. If he wins those, he will win the Presidency. According to the polls above, Obama also leads in FL, NM, MI and WI. So at this point at least, the polls don’t reflect that Romney’s campaign of lies is putting him ahead.

Might Romney get a bump out of the RNC convention? Yep, though I would suggest that it would be very small since the convention will be an extremist Hate-a-Thon.

Then comes the DNC convention and Obama gets a bump back, especially with a positive theme which is what the bulk of the convention will be about.

Contrasting these two conventions will, IMO, only strengthen the Dems and Obama. And who knows how the RNC Convention might be hobbled by the possible impending hurricane.

Then of course we have the debates. Though there may be disagreements about how Romney may or may not be at a disadvantage in debates, I think that in the end, ROmney will be hurt by them. Romney has one major disadvantage to be sure, Obama will be in a high profile position to confront Romney on his lies and dishonesty on the issues. Having Obama and Romney standing side by side on the stage, one forcing chuckles, refusing to give specifics, dodging questions and launching mean spirited insults while the other carries a serious and substantial demeanor, addresses specifics and issues and has the experience and insights of an accomplished sitting President, I don’t see how anyone but die hard Repubs will see Romney as a winner in the debates.

All that said, it is for the best that Dems proceed as if this is a toss up election because not doing so could make it one.

Dbos
Member
Dbos

Man this article may be right on but its a big downer ;might as well give up on America if this happens.

Olderandwiser55
Member
Olderandwiser55

Never give up. Never. Hope for the best, plan for the worst. They want us to give up.