Tonight is the GOP primary in New Hampshire. The Dems are having one too, which should be as unsurprising as the GOP primary in terms of who will win.

Mitt Romney will almost certainly win tonight so the victor of the primary isn’t the story, it’s all about the margin of victory and who comes in after him and in what order.

Huntsman needs to come in very strong or he’s gone. Newt needs a strong showing or his role in SC will be locked into that of wreaking vengeance on Romney and nothing more. For Santorum to have a hope at being a top tier competitor and THE conservative choice, he needs to beat Newt. Ron Paul could be a surprise long distance runner in the primary, especially if he comes in 2nd in NH. Rick Perry is in South Carolina wondering where everyone else is.

You’re invited to join us tonight in this thread for thoughts and commentary about the developing results in New Hampshire and what they mean for these candidates as the primary moves forward.

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KQµårk 死神
Member

AdLib I promised to get back to you on turnout. The numbers do not look good for Repugs. The Republican turnout was down 16%. Obviously Independent and Democratic turnout was up but most of those voters will not vote in the general election for Romney since they supported Paul and some Huntsman.

A similar thing happened in Iowa.

NH turnout dropped 16% among actual Republicans

http://campaign2012.washingtonexaminer.com/blogs/beltway-confidential/nh-turnout-dropped-16-among-actual-republicans/307181

The enthusiasm gap is no doubt on the GOP side so far especially considering the head winds the president is facing with the economy.

SallyT
Member

Bito, I have been looking for Obama’s numbers in New Hampshire and can’t find them but I did find the following. The guy with the boot on his head looks like Castro to me.

http://americanglob.com/2012/01/10/obama-lost-new-hampshire-primary-votes-to-vermin-supreme/

bito
Member

My thoughts exactly.

Karoli Karoli
I would rather watch fox news nonstop than fight over Hillary Clinton.

Any and all discussion of the Biden/Clinton subject is the MSM saying “oh look, a squirrel”( any of various other members of the family Sciuridae, as the chipmunks, flying squirrels, and woodchucks.)

Talking about celebrities getting a divorce is so much easier than actually discussing policy.

MurphTheSurf3
Editor

HOLD ONTO YOUR HATS….

Just saw Rick Perry hand Hannity his lunch on Fox!!!!!

Perry had a GREAT attack on Romney flawlessly delivered re. Bain and businesses in Gaffney and Georgetown SC.

Hannity pulled out all of his tricks and could not get Perry to flinch.

Made a strong case for the South being different and now it was Romney’s chance to show if he could face the heart of the GOP.

If THAT Perry had been around from the start, it would be a different race.

Khirad
Member

It’s called the Southern Conservative Protestant Evangelical vote.

Yeah, it’s a tad different demographically.

This is what I think Perry’s strategists told him when he went back to Texas to “reassess.”

Two Mormons, two Catholics, and well, Ron Paul are all that’s left.

Not hard math. Still, I doubt there’s enough anti-Catholic sentiment left in Dixie for that to pan out for Perry who has a host of bigger problems.

Still, I love that Perry and Gingrich are going for the jugular. It’s been so awesome to see Democratic talking points taken up by the GOP candidates. It will make general commercials so much easier. In Obama’s Chicago reelection HQ they’re probably lapping it all up like Manna from Heaven.

Nirek
Member

And not one of them with enough intelligence to beat Obama.
Sure President Obama has done some things I disagree with but he is far better than the present crop of GOP candidates.

SallyT
Member

Murph, I don’t watch FOX, so, who are they for now? I heard some talking on MSNBC that the powers of be are telling Gingrich to back off of Romney and his business past because he looks like he is going to be the nominee and they don’t want him torn up too much. So, has FOX now got behind Romney? Of course, they say the south will be a real test for Romney, however. Unemployment in SC is 9.9. It was 5.5 in Iowa and NH. Bain is not popular in SC, either.

MurphTheSurf3
Editor

Fox lined up solidly behind Romney with 24/7 coverage in defense of him and his Bain connections. They have shaped it as a defense of the American capitalist system and have accused Gingrich et. al. of taking up Obama’s socialist cause.

It could be much rougher going in SC.

bito
Member

Wow, battle of wits! Hannity and Perry.

MurphTheSurf3
Editor

Read my description of the meeting below (to AdLib)….quite a scene…striking really.

bito
Member

Without seeing it, I stand by what I said: “a battle of wits.”

MurphTheSurf3
Editor

Hope you get a chance to see it…stunning.

SallyT
Member

I like how one of these commentators said it was a win for Utah tonight. Two mormons in the top 3. Yah, 2 mormons, 2 catholics, one old loony toon, and one that can’t count pass 2. Winners!

Chernynkaya
Member

This is pure silliness but it made me LOL!!
“Ron Paul Has A Freaking Giant”

[img]http://bit.ly/yyTkbS[/img]

More photos of that fella here–he’s a big’un!
http://www.buzzfeed.com/gavon/ron-paul-has-a-freaking-giant

SallyT
Member

Cher, he looks like that guy that was on Little House on the Praire. I think it was Merlin Olsen or something like that.

Chernynkaya
Member

Wow. He really does look like Merlin Olsen! Re-animated, of course, cuz he’s dead. 🙁

SallyT
Member

Well, Cher, dead looks good next to Ron Paul.

LFer
Member
LFer

I posted these thoughts about Romney’s victory on that other website, you know, the one that shall not be named.

I’m sorry to see Mr. Romney polling so well. Lets see what his experience at Bain might tell us about a Romney administra­tion.

Corporate raiders like Bain buy up businesses and load them up with debt. Then they sell off the valuable bits and force a regimen of austerity on the company – downsizing and layoffs, outsourcin­g and offshoring­. In other words the customers, employees and their communitie­s take it in the shorts so the financiers don’t have to. And then the vulture capitalist­s walk away from the whole mess, their pockets bulging with money.

Corporatis­t politician­s have already loaded up the country with debt. The next step is to bring in someone to sell off (privatize) the valuable bits and force a regimen of austerity on the country – downsizing and layoffs, outsourcin­g and offshoring­. In other words the 99% will take it in the shorts so the 1% don’t have to. And then the corporatis­t politician­s will walk away from the whole mess, their pockets bulging with money.

Is this really what Republicans think is best for America?

funksands
Member

LFer your observations are accurate. Guys like Romney view America as a host to be fed upon. It’s nothing personal, predators just eat.
And no, I don’t believe that Republicans think this is best for America. I don’t believe that Republicans believe in much of anything.

They exist as a delivery system for political power and money to the top .0005% The Family is the perfect symbiosis of that belief.

Every year they ratchet up the rhetoric, move further right, until all they have left is jingoism, fantasy, platitudes, and single-celled organisms running for office.

But they are too far in to turn back now. They won’t stop until they are stopped. For those bankrolling the party, there is too much money at stake. For those minions who serve those masters there is too much power at stake. For those poor suckers who vote for them, there is victory over the enemy at stake.

KQµårk 死神
Member

One thing is for sure. The GOP establishment have stomped down any further attacks on Romney’s days at Bain Capital. Because they know that’s his glass jaw.

Chernynkaya
Member

WTF?? Biden: Romney’s “I like being able to fire people” comment probably taken out of context http://njour.nl/wVtkQ3

bito
Member

Cher, perhaps he shouldn’t have said it, off message, but he is right in a way. The point I think that should have been made was that Romney was slap wrong about choosing an HC insurance company. Under the ACA exchange one can choose their insurance company. Mitt was making it sound like “Big Gubment” was your only choice.

BTW, Mitt saying he “liked” firing” people is totally sick, I absolutely hated the times when I had to layoff people due to RIF (reduction in force) when a job was winding down. They were people, my coworkers, my friends/buddies, who had families and bills.

#Mittsongs Heart of Stone

Chernynkaya
Member

bito, most everyone I read acknowledges that the comment was taken out of context, but as you point out, it was even worse IN context. Did you see the article by James Fallows in today’s DP? He said the same as you. What was the worst thing about what Romney said was the word “like.”

bito
Member

No Cher, I didn’t read read Mr. Fallows, he either read my tweets or he is a very smart fellow. 🙂
Now if if I could get someone to notice that the biggest failed answer in the Sunday N.H. debates was how they could instill/develop cooperation with the Dems in Congress and get their “dream-book” proposals passed. They all had a major fail on that question and it went non-reported.

SallyT
Member

Biden is just covering his butt for when someone quotes him. “It was taken out of context!”

KQµårk 死神
Member

Maybe Obama should take on Hillary as VP, just saying.

Chernynkaya
Member

KQ, I know everyone pooh-poohs that idea, and says never happen, but I love the idea. I never thought Biden was all that, and Hillary would be a real bonus.I ma nit looking forward to Biden in the campaign trail. He’s such a pol and sounds phony to me.

choicelady
Member

Cher – he won my heart when, after Obama won, he and his wife were on Oprah. He said of course HE wanted to win, but in terms of history and significance, “We got it right.” His affirmation of the importance of Obama’s victory historically, of a Black president, was glowing in his eyes and smile. THAT is something I will never forget. He meant every word.

He’s a loose lip, that’s for sure, but he’s also the POOREST Senator we have, even after all his years in the Senate which means he did not find ways to enrich himself, and there are many good things about him. I will also love him for whispering to Obama just as health care reform passed, “This is a big fucking deal!” I find I’m always laughing WITH him, never AT him. I just plain like him.

SallyT
Member

Cher, I heard them talking on TV the other night about Hillary being the VP canidate and it was said she would be the most qualified VP since Adams. Also, in looking at 2016 she would have a better chance at getting the WH and getting it kept in Dems hands for 16 years. And, they think it will take that to get the country completely turned around. Something to think about.

choicelady
Member

I just cannot trust her, Sally. She’s an admirer of Doug Coe, leader of “The Family”, the ultra right wing Christians on C Street. She has made him her personal pastor – and he’s not even ordained! She has huge corporate ties, and she worked too cozily with some of the WORST of the GOP Senators – Coburn for one. She once was someone I deeply admired – but I’ve lost a lot of respect for her. And I don’t bloody trust her at all.

SallyT
Member

CL, you have valid concerns there. I don’t really go along with prayer groups in general anyway. Prefer to keep those to myself. I am mostly concerned that we don’t have a followup to Obama. She was just mentioned in that conversation I stated. The Republs have Christie in mind. We have ???? I don’t see it being Biden. I mentioned the Governor of Montana to Bito. I like that guy and he is a real cowboy. But, I probably don’t know enough about him either.

Chernynkaya
Member

Sally, the thing is, I think she said she doesn’t want to run again. Also, she’s quitting as SoS after the election.

SallyT
Member

Khirad, I hope he doesn’t take any from the Senate or the House. We need all we have there!

Khirad
Member

I’ve actually become a fan of her as SoS.

Will be a shame to see her go.

I’ve forgotten, but who are they floating as her successor, or is it all just idle speculation?

I remember back in 2008 it was at first thought to be between Kerry and Richardson.

Just leave Kerry where he is. Richardson would be decent, especially with a new North Korea, but I’m hoping for someone else altogether.

SallyT
Member

Bito, are you ignoring me???? Don’t make me look like Perry!

bito
Member

@AdLib, I wasn’t disagreeing on Warren, I was mentioning history.

But now I will disagree. What do we know of her positions on foreign policy and many other topics. She has never held an elected position, so exactly what are her views and has zero legislative experience-Senator Obbama (both state and federal did.) I want her in the Senate and allow her to get her “feet wet” before throwing into the pool. She is hated by R’s as much as Dems love her.

SallyT
Member

Okay, Bito, a governor….how about Brian Schweitzer. To much a long shot? I like that guy myself.

SallyT
Member

Ad Lib, she might be a good one. Like Cher, I think we need to get someone ready to run. You know that the Repubs have Christie in mind. I don’t like that guy at all. Elizabeth probably could handle him.

Chernynkaya
Member

Sally, the Party needs to start grooming someone asap. The only one I can think of off the top of my head is Sherrod Brown.

funksands
Member

Too bad. I thought she was an excellent SOS

SallyT
Member

Cher, I am with you on her not being interested. She must be tired. But, VP is nothing like SOS. Gee, she hasn’t been home very much, has she? The VP doesn’t do that much traveling. But, I do think we have to look at the election after Obama. It is going to take more than 8 years to get the things done that have to be done before they “F” it up again!

KQµårk 死神
Member

I was saying it tongue in cheek but the idea does intrigue me for some reason.

choicelady
Member

Naw – Biden is a truly nice guy. He always gives the benefit of the doubt. But he ROCKS at the policy things he does. I definitely do NOT want Hillary. I don’t trust her at ALL. Biden was born foot-in-mouth, but he is the LEAST wealthy US Senator and has a great heart and good mind. Just that loose lip thingy…

bito
Member

C’lady and a die hard Union supporter!

Chernynkaya
Member

But do you think he’s a campaign asset? Not Biden’s heart, but his effectiveness?

bito
Member

Excuse me, Andrea Greenspan sucks dead bears.

EDIT: IMHO 😉

Chernynkaya
Member

She’s ass juice.

SueInCa
Member

Anyone who could be married to Greenspan has to be a freaking dog and no morals. She makes me want to puke. It makes me mad in the morning that I think to turn on the news at 10 and she is sitting there. I turn it off right away

KQµårk 死神
Member

She’s another one who defended Bain Capital. Go figure.

KQµårk 死神
Member

Brokaw needs to give it up for good the totally GOP turnout is down so Romney did not win as many independents as McCain did last time. It was not an impressive win for Romney.

bito
Member

From Nate Silver:

Based on a linear extrapolation from the precincts counted so far, the turnout would be about about 225,000 voters. About 240,000 voters turned out for the Republican primary in 2008.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/01/10/live-blogging-the-new-hampshire-primary/?src=twt&twt=fivethirtyeight#g-o-p-turnout-pace-improves-some

One has to remember, neither party was running an incumbent so the totals would probably be lower.

I have been trying to find the vote totals in the Dem primary for PBO, no luck, anyone?

choicelady
Member

But they were not last time either. The GOP “enthusiasm gap” seems quite large, and no explanations about incumbents etc. will make it clear. There are just fewer GOP voters voting. That does not bode well for their candidates – ANY of them.

KQµårk 死神
Member

I think without the Ron Paul factor the vote would be much lower in IA and NH regardless.

choicelady
Member

Creepy but true. That man gives me the willies. He’s a true fanatic with a very dangerous delusion.

SallyT
Member

Brokaw is still in WWII.

KQµårk 死神
Member

He sounded like an all out shill for Romney. I guess he has to defend the 1%.