Tonight is the GOP primary in New Hampshire. The Dems are having one too, which should be as unsurprising as the GOP primary in terms of who will win.
Mitt Romney will almost certainly win tonight so the victor of the primary isn’t the story, it’s all about the margin of victory and who comes in after him and in what order.
Huntsman needs to come in very strong or he’s gone. Newt needs a strong showing or his role in SC will be locked into that of wreaking vengeance on Romney and nothing more. For Santorum to have a hope at being a top tier competitor and THE conservative choice, he needs to beat Newt. Ron Paul could be a surprise long distance runner in the primary, especially if he comes in 2nd in NH. Rick Perry is in South Carolina wondering where everyone else is.
You’re invited to join us tonight in this thread for thoughts and commentary about the developing results in New Hampshire and what they mean for these candidates as the primary moves forward.
AdLib I promised to get back to you on turnout. The numbers do not look good for Repugs. The Republican turnout was down 16%. Obviously Independent and Democratic turnout was up but most of those voters will not vote in the general election for Romney since they supported Paul and some Huntsman.
A similar thing happened in Iowa.
NH turnout dropped 16% among actual Republicans
http://campaign2012.washingtonexaminer.com/blogs/beltway-confidential/nh-turnout-dropped-16-among-actual-republicans/307181
The enthusiasm gap is no doubt on the GOP side so far especially considering the head winds the president is facing with the economy.
Bito, I have been looking for Obama’s numbers in New Hampshire and can’t find them but I did find the following. The guy with the boot on his head looks like Castro to me.
http://americanglob.com/2012/01/10/obama-lost-new-hampshire-primary-votes-to-vermin-supreme/
My thoughts exactly.
Any and all discussion of the Biden/Clinton subject is the MSM saying “oh look, a squirrel”( any of various other members of the family Sciuridae, as the chipmunks, flying squirrels, and woodchucks.)
Talking about celebrities getting a divorce is so much easier than actually discussing policy.
The MSM is a bit worried right now that they will lose out on a lot of advertising bucks if the GOP nom is decided quickly. So, as usual, they invent a new “controversy” intended to keep people watching their lame pundits.
This is a totally manufactured and 100% phony “issue”. I guarantee that Obama, Biden, Hillary and the entire Obama admin have said nothing to give any validity to this BS story.
So, as Karoli says, let’s not waste time energy or create the division the MSM and GOP would like to see by arguing over whether Superman would beat The Hulk in a fight.
At times the MSM remarks about the huge amount of money in campaigns. Huh, 85% of the monies goes to TV advertising, how much will they really mention. bitch and moan about the travesty of the Citizens United or the cost of campaigns? How else can they pay the talking heads and pudnuts millions without those advertising bucks?
Who said (a complete paraphrase) ” don’t trust the opinion of anyone when their answer depends on their livelihood” ?
I have trouble listening to the talking heads when they start talking over each other. Not only that , but they do not know any more than we do. Maybe less than most of us.
HOLD ONTO YOUR HATS….
Just saw Rick Perry hand Hannity his lunch on Fox!!!!!
Perry had a GREAT attack on Romney flawlessly delivered re. Bain and businesses in Gaffney and Georgetown SC.
Hannity pulled out all of his tricks and could not get Perry to flinch.
Made a strong case for the South being different and now it was Romney’s chance to show if he could face the heart of the GOP.
If THAT Perry had been around from the start, it would be a different race.
Wish I had seen that! Perry is a child and children aren’t good at debating but they excel at being spiteful (as well as nice things too).
Perry is at the end of his rope and he’s watching his dreams of the Presidency, so reachable just a couple months ago, evaporate into nothingness.
This is it, his farewell from the national scene as a moron and the biggest loser of the pack…unless he can somehow turn it around in SC or at least go out saving face with a decent showing.
So, he is doing what he does best, be a small minded hater but to our benefit, he has to hate on Romney if he wants any chance of reviving his dream.
Hope he isn’t muted by the bullying of the GOP elite as it looks like might be happening with Gingrich. It’s fun to watch Romney squirm with that phony smile plastered on his face and it would look to be the last chance to deny Romney a primary win.
Remember my thesis that the fix was in.
Well it may prove to be so just a few days late.
BUT Perry came off as calm, cool, collected, self assured, knowledgeable, sensible and sharp.
Unbelievable.
Yep, I think you were ahead of your time on this.
The pressure has no doubt been ongoing but now that Romney has won two straight, I think the hammer is really coming down.
Sununu has been publicly threatening Newt and others and Jim DeMint released a statement tonight supporting Romney (though not endorsing) and attacking those who are attacking him.
Newt sure looked like a whipped dog tonight, he may or may not give into the pressure but it sure sounds like Perry, who has been attacked by Romney’s people from the beginning, isn’t going to cooperate with them now at the sake of losing face.
Driving deeper and deeper wedges into the party….?
That’s the whole thing that’s being overlooked by the all-powerful, all-not-seeing GOP Elite…the GOP Base.
The Repub Elite think, as Cheney once explained, that they create reality.
So they wanted Obama elected?
In this case, their coronation of Romney may seem like genius but how will the Ron Paul supporters, the social conservatives, the Tea Party and those who (unfortunately) dislike Mormons respond to having an undesirable nominee foisted upon them before they even have a chance to vote?
I do see at a minimum a real decline in enthusiasm by the base and at most, a revolt in the party with many refusing to get on board.
There’s a reason that dictators are overthrown elsewhere in the world, the GOP Elite might learn more about that soon.
Your last comment….great analysis of the opposing forces at work in the GOP. I sense real panic in the ranks. The idea of the big money powerbrokers threatening Newt and the Ricks is incredible. Do they think they can keep this quiet or that it will work? You named it- a coronation will not be acceptable or accepted.
It’s hardly a secret at this point, they’ve publicly fired warning shots across the bows of the anti-Romneys. And you’re right, there does seem to be a panic they’re trying to hide, the RW is still fervently trying to come together behind their own candidate before the barn door is shut while the GOP Elite are trying to slam the door shut and lock it tight.
At the same time, the Elite have to be worried at least a little that they will alienate their base by cutting them out from choosing the party’s candidate.
SC will be fascinating and could be a GOP bloodbath in many ways.
Aliens took the real Perry. Left this one. Too late.
Wow, battle of wits! Hannity and Perry.
Read my description of the meeting below (to AdLib)….quite a scene…striking really.
Without seeing it, I stand by what I said: “a battle of wits.”
Hope you get a chance to see it…stunning.
As the old joke goes, a battle of wits between two guys without any ammunition.
The entire group of GOP candidates is out of ammunition.
Murph, I don’t watch FOX, so, who are they for now? I heard some talking on MSNBC that the powers of be are telling Gingrich to back off of Romney and his business past because he looks like he is going to be the nominee and they don’t want him torn up too much. So, has FOX now got behind Romney? Of course, they say the south will be a real test for Romney, however. Unemployment in SC is 9.9. It was 5.5 in Iowa and NH. Bain is not popular in SC, either.
It would be sweet to see Romney trying to keep that phony smile on his face in SC after losing to someone there. Whether it happens in the primary or not, I’m confident it will happen in the GE.
Will the plastic man suffer from the heat in the Palmetto State?
We all know what happens to plastic when it’s subjected to severe heat.
The headline could read “Romney Gets Bent”.
It all depends on whether Newt pulls back from attacking Romney full bore and if Rick Perry pours all he can into hammering Romney.
Romney is not a fighter, people like him who’ve been born with a silver spoon in their mouth don’t have any experience in having to fight for themselves. They’ve had money, lawyers, etc. to fight for them.
That’s why he’s so easily startled and that’s why I think Obama will mop the floor with him.
AdLib, if Gingrich is as self-serving as you have said, do you really think he will back off of Romney? He has been pissed that the powerstobe Republs having been supporting him and made comments to that effect. All he has to lose is this race. He will still have his books and speaking fees. Oh yes, and his history teachings. Why not go for broke. Be the guy that bucked the establishment. Does he have that in him or is he all talk?
The GOP organizers in SC are still very powerful. They can shut down Newt if they choose to. The question is will they? It comes down to whether the inevitable is acceptable to those who represent core GOP audiences. If Mitt is ok with them, they can push the rest to the edges.
Sally, that’s a good question. I do think Newt is all about doing what most gratifies him so the question is, will the GOP Elite make him a financial offer he can’t refuse or will Newt find revenge the tastier dish?
We’ll see but he sure looked whipped tonight.
It will be very interesting to see where the GOP machine in SC goes. I don’t think they can shut down Perry but they could threaten Gingrich enough to shut him down.
Newt, like all bullies, is in the end, a coward. We’ve seen that repeatedly in this race alone. So, only time will tell as to whether his spite or his fear wins out.
Fox lined up solidly behind Romney with 24/7 coverage in defense of him and his Bain connections. They have shaped it as a defense of the American capitalist system and have accused Gingrich et. al. of taking up Obama’s socialist cause.
It could be much rougher going in SC.
It’s called the Southern Conservative Protestant Evangelical vote.
Yeah, it’s a tad different demographically.
This is what I think Perry’s strategists told him when he went back to Texas to “reassess.”
Two Mormons, two Catholics, and well, Ron Paul are all that’s left.
Not hard math. Still, I doubt there’s enough anti-Catholic sentiment left in Dixie for that to pan out for Perry who has a host of bigger problems.
Still, I love that Perry and Gingrich are going for the jugular. It’s been so awesome to see Democratic talking points taken up by the GOP candidates. It will make general commercials so much easier. In Obama’s Chicago reelection HQ they’re probably lapping it all up like Manna from Heaven.
And not one of them with enough intelligence to beat Obama.
Sure President Obama has done some things I disagree with but he is far better than the present crop of GOP candidates.
I like how one of these commentators said it was a win for Utah tonight. Two mormons in the top 3. Yah, 2 mormons, 2 catholics, one old loony toon, and one that can’t count pass 2. Winners!
Using that logic, I guess it was a win for killing Medicare, SS and public schools.
This is pure silliness but it made me LOL!!
“Ron Paul Has A Freaking Giant”
[img]http://bit.ly/yyTkbS[/img]
More photos of that fella here–he’s a big’un!
http://www.buzzfeed.com/gavon/ron-paul-has-a-freaking-giant
Cher, he looks like that guy that was on Little House on the Praire. I think it was Merlin Olsen or something like that.
Wow. He really does look like Merlin Olsen! Re-animated, of course, cuz he’s dead. 🙁
Well, Cher, dead looks good next to Ron Paul.
Zoom out for a moment and think about this. Right now, Obama who is President over an economy that’s ailing, high unemployment, great dissatisfaction about government and incumbents and is being attacked incessantly by seven Republicans getting lots of media time…is still beating all of the Repubs including Romney in most reliable polls.
Is this not a point where Romney should be at his highest point against Obama in the polls? Before Obama and the Dem machine has begun campaigning against him?
If Obama is winning a fight right now where he has been punched constantly and he has hardly lifted a glove, where should the polls and votes be once he lets loose on Romney?
I don’t put a great deal of stock in polls this early but the fact that a challenger to the President who’s residing over such tough times, is behind in the polls, sure seems to indicate great advantages ahead for Obama.
Kerry was double digits up on Bush in comparison when he won the nomination early. I guess when Mitt is the nominee is the time to start looking at polls but in reality polls don’t matter until after conventions.
It’s just an indicator but shouldn’t be taken as the way things are.
But as an indicator, it sure seems to undercut popular support for replacing Obama with Romney.
Ad, I couldn’t agree more. I honestly think this is the first really visible sign of the illness of the GOP as a national party. On a local level, guys like Louie Gohmert can still win a Congressional seat, but nationally they are sick.
Obama has no business being in the position he is in at this point in the race, given the headwinds he’s had to fight alone.
Yep, even though they would be meaningless early polls, they should be showing Romney well ahead of Obama right now if only as a Fantasyland alternative to the way things are in the country now.
That’s the way things have been historically so as you say, this reflects huge weakness in the GOP and their platforms and candidates.
How can you not have your candidates, who have only been hammering Obama, not be beating him with 8.5% unemployment and a government in gridlock?
I think it’s very telling and though we will have to work hard this year, I think Obama will end up winning re-election decisively.
I posted these thoughts about Romney’s victory on that other website, you know, the one that shall not be named.
I’m sorry to see Mr. Romney polling so well. Lets see what his experience at Bain might tell us about a Romney administration.
Corporate raiders like Bain buy up businesses and load them up with debt. Then they sell off the valuable bits and force a regimen of austerity on the company – downsizing and layoffs, outsourcing and offshoring. In other words the customers, employees and their communities take it in the shorts so the financiers don’t have to. And then the vulture capitalists walk away from the whole mess, their pockets bulging with money.
Corporatist politicians have already loaded up the country with debt. The next step is to bring in someone to sell off (privatize) the valuable bits and force a regimen of austerity on the country – downsizing and layoffs, outsourcing and offshoring. In other words the 99% will take it in the shorts so the 1% don’t have to. And then the corporatist politicians will walk away from the whole mess, their pockets bulging with money.
Is this really what Republicans think is best for America?
LFer your observations are accurate. Guys like Romney view America as a host to be fed upon. It’s nothing personal, predators just eat.
And no, I don’t believe that Republicans think this is best for America. I don’t believe that Republicans believe in much of anything.
They exist as a delivery system for political power and money to the top .0005% The Family is the perfect symbiosis of that belief.
Every year they ratchet up the rhetoric, move further right, until all they have left is jingoism, fantasy, platitudes, and single-celled organisms running for office.
But they are too far in to turn back now. They won’t stop until they are stopped. For those bankrolling the party, there is too much money at stake. For those minions who serve those masters there is too much power at stake. For those poor suckers who vote for them, there is victory over the enemy at stake.
Consider this LFer, Romney’s popularity for being a hedge fund vulture is exactly what will cut against him in the GE. So, it’s a good thing he’s popular with the GOP cult for what will hurt him in the GE.
I am growing more and more confident that Romney will prove to be a far weaker and easy to damage candidate than some may suspect right now. He has a glass jaw and is the symbol of everything the public opposes. He’s going to be in defense mode constantly and that’s not a path to winning.
I listen to part of Romney’s speech again and he’s acting like it’s 2008. He kept on saying Obama “wants to” make the US into noun verb Europe. Well how come Obama did not do that already Mittens since he had both chambers in Congress? Oh yeah he passed Obamacare that is close to Romneycare with better benefits and cost controls. So he can’t even attack Obama’s record with any credibility and just tries to scare us about what Obama would do in the future.
The guy is so transparently bad it’s not funny.
That’s sure how it looks to me. When Romney can’t be preaching to the choir of the GOP, I think he hits a ceiling in polls and votes that he simply won’t be able to break through.
One thing is for sure. The GOP establishment have stomped down any further attacks on Romney’s days at Bain Capital. Because they know that’s his glass jaw.
That’s great, it preserves it for Obama during the GE! Imagine if Hillary was stopped from attacking Obama on Rev. Wright and McCain brought it up near election day.
The less that comes out in the primary leaves a lot more to bury him with in the GE.
Yup and they still have the sound bites from the GOP candidates as well.
Such great assets already to use on Romney, he has no idea what’s in store for him but Obama knows well how low the GOP can go and he’s well prepared.
With you on that. No matter how good the attack, once it gets old, it gets stale.
Further, Obama can broaden the attack as part of his narrative that Wall Street became a predator in the post Reagan years feasting on easy kills in the U.S. economy. Bain is one of those predators and its founder bears responsibility for the beast.
It’s a necessary component of the whole OWS/99%/economic injustice platform and Romney represents all the evil of the 1%.
It’s a huge minefield ahead for ROmney but he’s running through a grassy field in the GOP primary thinking that this is what it’s like.
He’s in for a rude awakening.
{{{Applause!}} For your comment and also for those powers that be. I love it!
WTF?? Biden: Romney’s “I like being able to fire people” comment probably taken out of context http://njour.nl/wVtkQ3
Maybe Obama should take on Hillary as VP, just saying.
Naw – Biden is a truly nice guy. He always gives the benefit of the doubt. But he ROCKS at the policy things he does. I definitely do NOT want Hillary. I don’t trust her at ALL. Biden was born foot-in-mouth, but he is the LEAST wealthy US Senator and has a great heart and good mind. Just that loose lip thingy…
But do you think he’s a campaign asset? Not Biden’s heart, but his effectiveness?
C’lady and a die hard Union supporter!
KQ, I know everyone pooh-poohs that idea, and says never happen, but I love the idea. I never thought Biden was all that, and Hillary would be a real bonus.I ma nit looking forward to Biden in the campaign trail. He’s such a pol and sounds phony to me.
I was saying it tongue in cheek but the idea does intrigue me for some reason.
Cher, I heard them talking on TV the other night about Hillary being the VP canidate and it was said she would be the most qualified VP since Adams. Also, in looking at 2016 she would have a better chance at getting the WH and getting it kept in Dems hands for 16 years. And, they think it will take that to get the country completely turned around. Something to think about.
Sally, the thing is, I think she said she doesn’t want to run again. Also, she’s quitting as SoS after the election.
Cher, I am with you on her not being interested. She must be tired. But, VP is nothing like SOS. Gee, she hasn’t been home very much, has she? The VP doesn’t do that much traveling. But, I do think we have to look at the election after Obama. It is going to take more than 8 years to get the things done that have to be done before they “F” it up again!
Too bad. I thought she was an excellent SOS
Sally, the Party needs to start grooming someone asap. The only one I can think of off the top of my head is Sherrod Brown.
Elizabeth Warren 2016?
History says: Senators do not fair well running for prez. Think Rep or Gov.
Ad Lib, she might be a good one. Like Cher, I think we need to get someone ready to run. You know that the Repubs have Christie in mind. I don’t like that guy at all. Elizabeth probably could handle him.
Okay, Bito, a governor….how about Brian Schweitzer. To much a long shot? I like that guy myself.
Bito, remember that Dem Senator from IL who ran in 2008? 😆
I think Warren is the type of candidate that could whip up huge enthusiasm, not only as potentially being the first woman to be President but as being someone who is boldly Progressive and fearless. She has the charisma and brains and down-to-Earth, anti-establishment sensibility that could electrify people across parties.
I can’t think of anyone else who has that potential right now. Sure, she needs to be elected Senator first but I think she will win.
As for Hillary, she is very well liked now and would be formidable but the RW had compiled a punishing mountain of attacks on her for 2008, thinking she would be the nominee and she would be carrying all the baggage from the past which when brought back to light, could be challenging to overcome.
Warren has no baggage and would be more like Obama, someone who comes from humble beginnings, spent her life working for the greater good of Americans and has a conviction about changing the way things are.
When Obama gave his speech in 2004 for Kerry, I said to my wife, “I wish he was running for President.”
I am pleased to be supporting Obama in 2012 but in 2016, I would love to be able to support Warren in a run for President.
@AdLib, I wasn’t disagreeing on Warren, I was mentioning history.
But now I will disagree. What do we know of her positions on foreign policy and many other topics. She has never held an elected position, so exactly what are her views and has zero legislative experience-Senator Obbama (both state and federal did.) I want her in the Senate and allow her to get her “feet wet” before throwing into the pool. She is hated by R’s as much as Dems love her.
Bito, absolutely we will need to see where she is on many issues, as we will when she is elected Senator (knock wood).
I do know quite a bit about her though and she has solid Progressive sensibilities on every issue I’ve ever heard he speak about.
She’s a straight talker, smart, tough and principled. Everything about her speaks of reason and pragmatism so, while it’s possible, I would be very surprised if she had any positions on issues that weren’t well reasoned and sensible.
I’m getting way ahead of things by suggesting her now, she’s got a tough fight just to become Senator and as you say, we haven’t heard her positions on all the issues but I do think we will as her campaign for Senate goes on and I’ll bet they’ll be as solid as her positions on the things we do know about.
She’s a superstar in the making. I heard a report from the Dem Party Chairman in MA who said he’s stunned at how easy it’s been to raise money for her, easier than it was to raise money for Ted Kennedy he said.
People are passionate about Warren, I would be thrilled to see her rolling up her sleeves in the Senate. And if that works out…maybe something bigger.
Bito, are you ignoring me???? Don’t make me look like Perry!
I’ve actually become a fan of her as SoS.
Will be a shame to see her go.
I’ve forgotten, but who are they floating as her successor, or is it all just idle speculation?
I remember back in 2008 it was at first thought to be between Kerry and Richardson.
Just leave Kerry where he is. Richardson would be decent, especially with a new North Korea, but I’m hoping for someone else altogether.