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AdLib On March - 15 - 2016

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This could be the night Marco Rubio is knocked out of the GOP Primary, Kasich may win his first (and possibly only) primary and Donald Trump could become the only Republican with a mathematically viable path towards winning the GOP nom.

On the Dem side, Hillary could accumulate a dominant lead or Bernie could pull out another surprise victory.

It will be a dramatic election night whatever the results and this is the thread to post your thoughts, observations and predictions on the night.

Hope to see you then!

Written by AdLib

My motto is, "It is better to have blogged and lost hours of your day, than never to have blogged at all."

64 Responses so far.

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  1. AdLib says:

    An interesting observation by Estab Repub Mike Murphy, he said that the choice of delegates for the GOP convention, who could possibly decide who the nom is if Trump doesn’t get enough delegates committed to him through the primaries, would be very conservative types, Ted Cruz types.

    So if that’s true, Kasich’s dream of becoming the nom at the convention sounds delusional. Not to mention that Kasich would come in a distant 3rd with much less delegates than Trump and Cruz. He would be far less justifiable to replace Trump or Cruz.

    So Kasich’s staying in could be great for Dems, helping to set up a catastrophic convention that he can’t win and only a greatly disliked and polarizing candidate can win, Trump or Cruz…standing amid the ruins of the GOP.

    Or else, Trump wins it outright and becomes the most disliked candidate to ever run for President.

  2. Kalima says:

    Just wondering about those nasty Koch brothers and their efforts to try to stop Trump. The last article I posted about them was over a month ago. Do you think they fled the country, or maybe went to live at the other brother’s recreated “Wild West” town??

    They seem awfully quiet. 😉

    • AdLib says:

      I think the Kochs are focusing on trying to buy the Senate and House for themselves…er, the Repubs.

      They announced that they’re sitting on the sidelines for the time being. They don’t like Cruz or Trump and Kasich doesn’t look to have a prayer at being competitive.

      I think they’ll slime their way into the presidential election when the GE starts though.

      • Kalima says:

        Not that I give a flying nun, but remember how much they were in the news in 2012.

        Yep, slime balls.

        • AdLib says:

          They had planned to buy this election but then came Trump and the clown parade. They remain the most evil force trying to disintegrate our democracy.

          • Kalima says:

            I wish them nothing but bad luck, and loss of money in their wicked endeavors. Not that these cretin will ever be poor, but losing what is most important to them must sting where it hurts the most. Wasting their money as well as other people’s money, has become their hobby.

            • Kalima says:

              Nobody can like Cruz that much. Had they wanted to, he could have wasted their money already.

              My, the “chosen one” is getting a tad whiny now.

              They deserve each other. “The Axis of Evil”.

            • AdLib says:

              Well, they thankfully lost nearly everything they spent in 2012 under Rove.

              What I just heard was that Cruz’s speech tonight was aimed directly at getting the Kochs to give him their money. He wailed about regulations and tax cuts for the wealthy. Are the Koch’s stupid enough to think Cruz could ever win?

              Hope so, let them waste their money on that loser.

  3. AdLib says:

    So will the Repub Establishment go harder after Trump, backing Cruz and/or Kasich or will they do a 180 and start supporting Trump now that he looks like the inevitable Repub nom?

    I do hope they keep trying to prevent him from getting the nom and have a contested convention, that would be like watching a watermelon exploding in slow motion.

    How much in denial can they be? It’s clear that Trump is the choice of a plurality of their voters (but not a majority).

    And that he is doomed to lose in the GE.

    I am hoping the GOP gets behind Cruz and Kasich and deny Trump the nom, hopefully by very little. How sweet that would be!

  4. funksands says:

    Bernie pulls ahead in Missouri!! Go Sea Biscuit!

  5. AdLib says:

    Marco Rubio suspends his campaign after losing in FL, denies rumor that he will now be sold for parts.

    • To the highest bidder, of course.

    • Kalima says:

      Maybe an elevator company could use the mouth. He can repeat “3rd Floor Haberdashery” all day long in some downtown department store. Of course they will have to reset to omit the name President Obama.

      • funksands says:

        I’d pay money to see that. HA!

      • AdLib says:

        :-) That’s a great recommendation!

        Do they still have that recording you can call that tells you what time it is? He would be very good at that!

        I know! He could also do the recording at airports that tell you not to leave your bags unattended!

        For Marco, so many job opportunities, so little substance!

        • Kalima says:


          He could move to Japan. Here, everything talks, even my fridge, the bath, and the loo. His possibilities are endless. Just like his debate speeches.

          • AdLib says:

            Really? Then maybe Rubio should be the US Ambassador to Japan because he only has circular conversations.

            Imagine how many hours just a greeting would take!

            • Kalima says:

              He could stand at the main entrance to do his greeting. U.S. Ambassador would be a disaster for U.S.-Japan relations. Nothing would get done in a land where everything takes months to decide. Sometimes even years.

              Well, I suppose I should decide what to have for lunch. Expect me back in about two weeks.

              Go, Bernie. Go!!

          • AdLib says:

            Kalima, no worries. The Rubiomobile doesn’t drive far anyway, the steering wheel is locked in a right turn only position and just keeps going around in a circle over and over.

            But it does have many water bottle holders.

            • Kalima says:

              Love it! You are so naughty. Going around in circles would be compatible for most of Tokyo anyway. That’s how life in Old Edo moves most days. You have to repeat yourself over and over to be understood.

          • AdLib says:

            They could even make a car that uses Rubio’s voice for the onboard computer and when the front doors are open, they could look like Rubio’s ears.

  6. Kalima says:

    Hillary won the Ohio primary too, but lost to Obama in the GE.

    Ohio Democratic presidential primary, 2008
    Candidate Votes Percentage

    Hillary Clinton 1,259,620 53.49%

    Barack Obama 1,055,769 44.84%

    John Edwards 39,332 1.67%


    Florida primary 2008


    • AdLib says:

      Kalima, just to lay out what Bernie’s thinking, CA has 546 delegates, NY has 291, PA has 210, etc.

      Over 1,000 delegates in just those 3 states and much more on top of that.

      So while this was admittedly a good night for Hillary, it ain’t over by a long shot!

      • Kalima says:

        I agree, and the primaries are not a certain indication for the GE, more people should be voting.

        So no, it’s far from a coronation yet.

        • AdLib says:

          Also considering that we’ve seen multiple instances in the primary where issues have come up that have knocked Hillary down in the polls, you never know what may happen so if you’re Bernie, you stay in and see what happens.

          • Kalima says:

            All in all, Bernie’s staying power and popularity on issues he believes in, have surprised even the most cynical and critical of his campaign. That is really something to be proud of.

            • Kalima says:

              2008 all over again. Some people will never learn, but it’s usually the repubs.

            • AdLib says:

              And Bill Clinton is coming out now with more dishonest and nasty insults of Bernie.

              Bill is a disaster waiting to happen.

            • Kalima says:

              You are right. Over-confidence and complacency can be dangerous. Hillary obviously has forgotten most things about 2008, except that she lost the GE to Obama.

            • AdLib says:

              Here’s the trap Hillary can fall into. She’s already been pivoting towards the GE and talking more about Trump. If in the process, she gets over-confident and starts moving back to the center-right as she tried to before she saw Bernie as a threat, there could be a shift back to Bernie.

  7. monicaangela says:

    I believe I’m going to be sick. Hillary has won the great state of Ohio. I can’t believe the luck Bernie is having tonight. I sure hope those that are voting for Clinton get what they are hoping for. I see Rubio has dropped out, and Trump is winning all over the place. Many democrats here in Ohio voted the republican ticket to help Kasich win in Ohio. This night has been really hard on me, don’t think I can take much more of this. :)

    • kesmarn says:

      monica and friends, as you probably know I was working the polls in Ohio yesterday (6 a.m. to 10 p.m. this time), so I’m even later to the party than usual.

      Kasich’s win was pretty nauseating, I agree. But at least Ohio chose him over Trump — which is a very small consolation, but still better than having this state hopping on the Bigotry Bandwagon staffed by clowns.

      A tough road ahead for Bernie, and a heartbreaker in MO. But he has gained some delegates.

      I have to say that my opinion of Hillary has declined so drastically over the last few weeks (hard to believe I was ever pretty much neutral about her), that I find it hard to resist hoping that she just makes some major gaffe or blunder that knocks her out of the running. When she accused Bernie of opposing the auto bailout and being a Koch-puppet, that was the last straw.

      I can handle almost anything but a straight-up liar and to suggest that Sanders hates auto workers and loves billionaire bullies puts her pretty much in that department imho.

      At least the turnout was good in Ohio and we had a lot of first time — including 17 year old — voters. Always heartening to see that. (And today was recovery day. Blast those $#@%@& heavy Diebold voting machines.)

    • AdLib says:

      monica, I thought you, Kes and KT would push Bernie over the top in OH!

      I’m very disappointed too that Bernie didn’t have better results in OH and am currently listening to Hillary’s victory speech just thinking how canned, pandering and pretentious it sounds. Personally, I don’t understand how anyone can listen to her speeches and feel motivated by the same old school pol speeches I’m personally so tired of.

      Pres. Obama has spoiled me along with Bernie and Elizabeth Warren among others. I hear them speak and hear genuine compassion and concern for Americans and the country. I simply don’t hear that in Hillary’s voice when she speaks, she sounds so coached and rehearsed, so stylistic in her speeches where she lists all the Progressive things she supports that they come off like a performance instead of earnest expression.

      That said, it sure looks more likely now that Trump will win the GOP nom and whoever wins the Dem nom is getting my vote, even if it’s more of an anti-Trump vote for me than pro-Hillary. I personally think Hillary would govern as a center-right ex-DLCer like her husband and that by doing so, she would position herself to be resented by all sides and be a one-termer (Hillary does have the highest negatives after Trump).

      But that doesn’t mean I’m not going to do everything I can to keep Trump out of the WH. Whatever complaints I have towards Hillary, they pale in comparison to the nightmare Trump represents.

      • monicaangela says:

        I agree with your assessment of the general, if it is a campaign of Hillary vs. Trump, there is no other alternative. I continue to hope that somehow Bernie Sanders will be able to miraculously win, and it is starting to look as though it will take a miracle for that to happen. I don’t have a choice on the republican side, I wouldn’t vote for either of the three final contestants, so as much as I would hate to have to vote for HRC, I would hate more the fact that I didn’t vote against Trump.

        OT: Lately my replies have been going to my spam file and I hadn’t noticed it until this morning. I continue to mark the replies as Not Spam, but they continue to go there. Not a big problem I guess, I suppose now that I know I can just move them from that file to my in box. Wondered if you had any idea why they started to do that recently.

        Another thing, how about the new nominee for the Supreme Court? I believe I like him.

        Found this excerpt from an article he did back in 1985:

        For the first three quarters of this century, administrative law focused primarily on the implications of regulation. Regulation itself enjoyed national favor, expanding from the turn-of-the-century commissions, to the broad economic regulatory programs of the New Deal, to the health, safety, and environmental requirements of the 1960s. Administrative law, in turn, concentrated on policing regulation’s effects and on reconciling it with the demands of private autonomy. 1

        By the 1970s, however, the national consensus supporting regulation had begun to unravel. The first critics were primarily economists who cast doubt upon the theoretical and empirical underpinnings of economic regulatory programs. 2 Representatives of both major political parties soon joined the attack, and by the late 1970s a new consensus had emerged favoring substantial reform of the nation’s system of common-carrier regulations and other economic controls. 3 Indeed, the late 1970s and early 1980s witnessed a burst of legislation prescribing substantial deregulation in a wide variety of economic sectors.

        It’s on, let’s see them try to deny this perfect candidate. :)

  8. AdLib says:

    Kasich won OH which is amusing. Trump gets a loss and Kasich is disliked by the GOP core and has no money. Cruz will stay in so he and Kasich splitting the anti-Trump vote paves the way for Trump in many states.

  9. funksands says:

    Boy the night is looking good for the front-runners. This may be a decisive evening. I’m fairly certain that Bernie will stay in until the end of April, but not as certain as I was. :-(

    • AdLib says:

      Funk, yep, they just called OH for Hillary, this is a very big night for her.

      But I think Bernie will stay in just keeping in mind how Hillary has a penchant, especially when she’s comfortably in the lead, to shoot herself in the foot (Nancy Reagan was a hero on AIDS???) and get voters to question their support of her. Remember, 6 months ago, Hillary was the inevitable Dem nom then before long, the private server/email story came from nowhere and Bernie went from single digits and widely discounted to a major competitor.

      For that reason, Bernie would be wise to consider that it ain’t over until it’s over.

      That said, Hillary sure looks more likely too win the nom after tonight.

    • funksands says:

      Never mind. I just saw the % reporting numbers. Guess I shouldn’t panic with 1 or 2% reporting. lol

  10. AdLib says:

    Marco Robotio has suspended his campaign…via another canned speech (chock full of hyper-religious blather) that tries to be soaring rhetoric but comes across like canned beets.

  11. AdLib says:

    Trump wins FL, waiting to see if Marco drops out now!

  12. AdLib says:

    Exit polls in OH favoring Kasich across the board, Bernie beating Hillary among white voters but not by as big of a margin as in MI while Hillary again getting a huge percentage of black voters.

  13. AdLib says:

    A proposed scenario (just for fun, before tonight’s results come in).

    Bernie may do much better against Hillary as many Dems are taking for granted that she will win and are crossing over in open primary states like OH to vote Repub and oppose Trump or vote for him.

    Cruz will stay in until the convention no matter how he does because at a minimum, he wants to be a power broker at the convention…if he can’t find a way to steal the nom from Trump.

    Rubio is out after tonight, even if he tries to hang in for a little bit, he’s toast.

    Trump will be cemented in after tonight as the de facto nominee…but could still have the nom taken away at the GOP convention which would be highly entertaining and destructive to the GOP.

    One has to take a moment to consider that a KKK supported, Putin supported, bigoted, sexist, violence inciting, compulsive liar is the GOP nominee for President.

    There are many hateful and/or ignorant people in this country but thankfully, the nation that elected and re-elected Pres. Obama is not dominated by these types. The defeat of Trump in a GE will be a great victory and affirmation for Americans.

    Sometimes you need a “villain” to bring people back together and revive their commitment to their principles.

  14. funksands says:

    I really hope Bernie over performs in Florida. He could win Missouri, Ohio and Illinois and still lose significant ground in the delegate count. Hillary is tightening her grip on the math even as Bernie gets closer and closer in every poll. By my calculation Bernie needs to win 59% of the remaining delegates on the board to have a chance at the nomination.

    Anyone else have a different number?

    Keep your fingers crossed!

    Trump will win Florida, and Rubio will bow out. Trump may win North Carolina and Missouri, but I don’t think so.
    Kasich will win Ohio and linger a bit longer
    Cruz will win Illinois, probably in North Carolina, AND Missouri because of their open primary status and gain some strength. (This is what I am also hoping for)

    If Trump wins Florida and North Carolina and Missouri, the race is effectively over. If he adds Ohio, even Cruz will think twice about continuing.

    I keep thinking that Cruz and Kasich will linger as long as possible, thinking that somehow Trump will screw this up and hand them a gift. Katich, unfortunately will run into money problems, Cruz does not have that issue.

    • If Trump gets the majority of delegates, I think the GOP establishment will try to nominate someone else at their convention, if there is a legal way for them to do so. Personally, I think that would be political suicide if they do. Then again, allowing a guy like trump to be the face of the republican party in the general, would also be suicide. The old GOPers just might go for broke.

      • funksands says:

        KT, their ace in the hole is if Trump comes into the convention with less than the threshold delegate count. Delegates are required by rule to support their pledged candidate on the FIRST ballot only. If that vote is taken and Trump doesn’t have the count, those delegates can vote for whomever they like on the second ballot.

        If Trump has the correct number of pledged delegates I think they’re hosed. Either they break their own party rules and piss off 40% of their electorate and shatter the party, or they meekly submit. I’m obviously hoping for this scenario.

    • AdLib says:

      Hey Funk, I’m with you on that, hoping Bernie does better than the polls show in FL.

      BTW, I don’t think Superdelegates should ever be added into the delegate count because they shouldn’t pollute or overrule the actual primary elections. They should only come into play at the convention and only have a good reason that voters will except if they try to reverse the winner of the actual primaries.

      The REAL delegate count in the Dem party is actually pretty close, Hillary: 768 and Bernie: 554. With over half of delegates still available, there is a path for Bernie to catch up and pass Hillary but granted, it is not an easy path.

      The thing about the primaries is that they front load the Southern states so it’s rigged to put ahead the more conservative candidates unless they can uniquely take advantage of the South (as Obama and Bill Clinton could).

      Why do the more moderate and Progressive states (and bigger states) get so end loaded, merely in the position of affirming the candidates the conservative states have left in the race or as leaders? Self-evident, isn’t it? The Establishment purposely skews elections towards conservatism to better protect itself (though not always succeeding as Obama proves).

      If CA, OR, WA, NY, etc. were among the earliest states in the primary, imagine how differently the races would look.

      Rubio is now claiming that he will stay in the race if he loses in FL but I think it’s just BS to keep FL voters from abandoning him as a lost cause…which he is in any case.

      Trump should indeed win FL, Kasich looks in better shape to win OH and as you say, that will keep him in…with only one state in his win column and having lost big in most others. And polling has shown that many of those voting for Kasich aren’t doing so because they like him, they are voting against Trump. So Kasich is delusional about thinking he will generate enthusiasm after OH is over.

      Cruz is staying in for a while and could win some or all 3 of the states you mention. After tonight, I think Cruz and Trump will continue to have enthusiasm towards their campaigns but Kasich may just be the Estab Repub puppet and that won’t come off well to core Repub voters.

      Also agree with your view on the money game, Kasich doesn’t have big money behind him and I doubt he’ll be able to solicit the amount he would need to be seen as a viable competitor.

      And Kasich has said his plan isn’t to win the nom in the primaries now, he wants the nom despite a huge majority not voting for him overall. He even said that’s part of the democratic process, letting the party leaders choose a candidate who got the least votes of all candidates remaining.

      I can’t decide which scenario I’d like to see more, Trump winning the nom outright or Trump getting very close and far ahead of the others then being shut out at the convention as the nom is handed to Cruz or Kasich.

      If the former happens, much of the GOP will be on the record declaring him horrible and unelectable…and they’ll prove to be right.

      If the latter, Trump would likely wreak havoc at the GOP convention, maybe even run as an indie just to get even (he’d be too late too get on many ballots to be competitive) and the eventual candidate would be damaged by being hand picked against the candidate voters chose.

      In either case, I think we see the GOP self-destruct.

      Anxious to see tonight’s results!

      • funksands says:

        The ideal is that Trump goes into the convention with a majority of delegates, but not quite enough. That will set off thermonuclear war.

        • AdLib says:

          Yep and the Repub pudnuts are so clueless, they completely overlook the fallout from taking the nom away from Trump at the convention and are now getting excited about Kasich becoming the nom.

      • You know Ad, in the midst of all the doom and gloom, from all sides, I remain quite hopeful for America. We definitely have our problems, and they are numerous and complex. But that is the way life really is, and gazing through the magnifying glass, politics in America is a very vivid representation of that fact, that life is complex and imperfect. Humans are flawed creatures, and our politicians are certainly no different.

        Just ask Billy Shakespeare! 😉

        • AdLib says:

          Well said, KT! I’m with you on that, despite the negativity thrown around in a campaign year, I am optimistic about what can happen in this country.

          Politicians are almost necessarily flawed because most are primarily motivated to run by their ego and thus are most dependent on maintaining their office and getting the money needed to keep it. And in the process, being dishonest with voters to at least some degree, to get the votes they need.

          There are however good and decent people among the untrustworthy pols and they can accomplish a lot.

          The other thing that makes me optimistic is that we’ve gone from a pretty apathetic nation to one that has become more activist and involved in social issues and politics (even if the actual number of voters hasn’t increased greatly, the percentage of voters who are activated is much higher than it used to be).

    • Hey funk! I don’t think Bernie can win in Missouri. I voted in Ohio today, for Sanders, of course. He might just take Ohio.

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