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Comments Posted By MurphTheSurf3

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Will 2015 Be a Good Year for Americans?

First, In reply to your predictions:

1. Will the Republican Congress improve, damage or not change the lives of Americans?

Your Key Paragraph: “In the end, one would have to put the best odds on Republicans pandering more to the extremists in their base and thus taking votes and actions that harm or at best, neglect the mainstream so on this count, my bet would be that with regards to the behavior of Republicans, the lives of average Americans will not be improved in 2015.” I agree with this codicil. The meme taking place in the House will remain in place- Boehner will be unable to pass anything substantive without Democratic votes and that will drive the GOP in the House affiliated with the Tea Party to demand more and more “tribute” to their doctrine. This will put pressure on the Senate as well where all hopes by McConnell of being a party of construction and not obstruction will be sacrificed to the Zealots.

2. Will Obamacare be stopped or profoundly damaged?

You Key Points: “We know this is a top priority for Republicans, especially as a rallying call to their base but do Republicans really want to be the party that ends universal health care in America? Though that will be among the first bills pushed for passage by the GOP Congress, Obama can and will easily veto such attempts.” I agree with one codicil. The GOP will never be able to present a workable Replacement and even if they could it would never pass in the House- those zealots….that would require Dems and that is not going to happen.

You wrote: “Would Chief Justice John Roberts want to go down in history with such a stain on his court? A court responsible for decreeing the misery, suffering and deaths of many Americans all in pursuit of a political, anti-citizen/pro-wealthy agenda? It’s hard to believe that he would or that he could rationalize that he’d be able to explain how such a heinous act by a branch of the people’s government could be justified.” I agree with one codicil: Roberts, I think, is trying to put an end to this without seeming to cave…all for the reasons you lay out.

3. Will rampant and institutionalized racism in police forces be reversed?

Your key paragraph: “Changes like this will be gradual, racist attitudes and practices can be very hard to blunt but there does seem to be an activated public and government leaders supporting them that appears meaningful in bringing about change.” Very gradual, very, very, very, very gradual. There was so much more generalized outrage after New Town and nothing much happened (and what did in several cases cost some officials their jobs and others had close calls). AND, unlike the parents of New Town who had a clear set of goals, were well organized, used appropriate and appealing tactics…..the anti-police protestors keep stepping in IT. Today a crowd tried to break into police HQ in St Louis….stupid.

What are your thoughts and predictions about how life will get better or worse for Americans in 2015?

1) The U.S. economy will move from healing into hale and hearty at the upper middle and upper strata, and a bit better for those in the middle middle on down.
2) Mike Pence- He may be what the GOP will ultimately look for; not Bush, not crazy.
3) Obama will move into the low to mid 50’s. Why? He will be seen as the real deal maker in a time of emerging economic okness. His handling of foreign affairs will emerge as deft in re. to Russia and ISIS. Free of electoral strain, the guy we liked will be back and he will be a progressive champion (who has a perfect excuse not to deliver).
4)India will continue emerge as a an economic super power for many of the reasons China did (lots of cheap labor and low standards). The lack of careful financial sector governance will attract a lot of foreign money.
5)Know your Nairu. NAIRU stands for the Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment, and the idea is that inflation will accelerate if the unemployment rate falls below the NAIRU level. In some sense, the basic idea is very old, but this particular formulation is owed to Milton Friedman. A lot of economists with influence in government policy believe in it and it is driving a lot of what is happening or not happening.
6) Russia will continue to weaken as its economy flattens (with a nod to the Sauds and their friends who want Syria’s Assad gone and their natural gas pipline built through Syria to Turkey) and Putin will fall out of favor. Looke to Medvedev to make a big return.
7) Cities will continue to renew and the suburbs to retract.

» Posted By MurphTheSurf3 On December 31, 2014 @ 8:14 pm

The Ferguson Grand Jury Decision

I have to agree with you.

» Posted By MurphTheSurf3 On November 25, 2014 @ 8:23 am

WHY DID THE PROSECUTING ATTORNEY CHOOSE TO RELEASE THE GRAND JURY FINDING AT 8 PM? WHY DID OTHER OFFICIALS COOPERATE IN THIS? WHAT DID THEY EXPECT WOULD HAPPEN GIVEN THE EVENT OF THE SUMMER AND THE GROWING ANGER IN THE NEIGHBORHOODS? WHO WERE THE PROTESTORS? WHO WERE THE RIOTERS?

[img]http://l.yimg.com/bt/api/res/1.2/yolB5k0xXhvV9RLwKq9oZg–/YXBwaWQ9eW5ld3M7Y2g9Mjg1Nztjcj0xO2N3PTQwNTM7ZHg9MjtkeT0wO2ZpPXVsY3JvcDtoPTcwMDtxPTc1O3c9OTkz/http://l.yimg.com/os/publish-images/news/2014-11-25/b2a6c0c0-7461-11e4-93d8-b77a2c90da6c_h_51676749.jpg[/img]

8:30 AM CST Tuesday November 25.

It was a long night…..a long, sad night with scary moments. At a neighborhood church we were never in danger. We ended up with 100 or so who stayed the night. 100 others left after midnight. Those who had cars drove home. Those without were taken home by a church van. My friends and I stayed. We were too tired not to and while we did very little, just being there seemed to be a value.

An hour ago we went for a walk.

We saw several looted stores, smouldering buildings, a dozen or so. There were shell casings on the ground. The owners of several looted, wrecked, burned out businesses stood outside of them crying. The common opinion is that those who did that were “trouble makers, gang members, stupid kids.” It was pretty clear last night that while the crowd at the police station was mixed by age, by race, by sex; the marauding rioters were almost entirely young, black and male.

At one point last night, we saw (on TV) protestors/rioters hurling bottle, batteries, rocks at police while they moved in large groups accompanied by security vehicles shot off smoke and tear gas grenade and fired bean bag rounds at clusters of individuals. The noise of sirens, and gun fire was constant.

As protesters hurled bottles, batteries and rocks at police, officers in riot gear responded by shooting bean bags and tear gas. It appears that no one suffered a significant injury. The police were generally restrained. The media was relatively balanced.

In “our” church, which had been designated as a “refuge” many had gathered before the announcement to watch it on TV. There were women, children, some men, very few young people. As the night went on we were joined by some who had been on the street, all adult men and women, mostly at the police station, and had gotten frightened. A few came from neighboring homes and apartment buildings afraid of the crowds.

My friends and I are not from the area. So we mostly watched and listened. We served a lot of cocoa and cookies; gave out blankets and pillows; and this morning we got up a bit earlier and helped to serve a meager breakfast. Most left by 6:00 AM. We are hanging around to help clean up and then we will go.

==============================================

Let me be clear. I deplore the actions of those who engaged in acts of violence last night.

But it is my opinion (and the opinion of others) that the events last night were entirely predictable by authorities and may be precisely what prosecuting attorney, Robert P. McCulloch, and other officials wanted. The mayhem has provided cover for the finding of the Grand Jury. It has provided a backdrop for the finding that seems to say “See- this is what “those people” do.”

For months now there has been planning by various community groups for peaceful and well orchestrated protests with extensive training of leaders. BUT, the decision to announce the finding at night made all of that futile. The night is a mask that promotes disorder. It hides the actions of those who are opportunists, and provocateurs. Those who want to loot, to pillage, to destroy, to destabilize love the night. The police have said that for months. Civil Rights leaders have said that. Community leaders have said that. SO, why wait 12 hours to announce the finding?

Why didn’t McCulloch (backed up by Governor Jay Nixon, and county and city leadership) make his announcement in the light of day? Why not wait until 9 AM this morning. Permit marches and rallies with an announced curfew of 6 PM? Why not give time for those who had not boarded up their businesses to do so? Why not position more police, national guard in the light of day? Why not? Today’s narrative is all about the rioters….and that may be why 8 PM was the perfect time to announce the finding.

» Posted By MurphTheSurf3 On November 25, 2014 @ 6:30 am

More complete report…

We are watching the news coverage. We are also getting reports from the streets.

There are a couple of hundred people on the streets. Not much more than that.

Most of them are wandering around shouting. Most are young. I have been told that there are a number of gang members present.

Some of them are acting provocatively.

A few of them are engaging in acts of violence: setting fires (3 of them), a bit of looting, breaking windows.

Most people are home or in places like this one, a church.

It is just the image that I think the Prosecuting Attorney and those in charge here wanted. The Grand Jury Deliberations were done at midday and his office says they needed several hours to do a summary. Fine. Why not wait until tomorrow morning? Why not wait to the daylight? Why not have a curfew at dark for a week after this? Why not?

I can tell you this, we are close to 300 people at a church in Florissant and the anger here (which includes anger at those doing the damage) is palpable.

A prayer service has started to pull more people into it the prayers and the hymns.

We are probably here for the night.

» Posted By MurphTheSurf3 On November 24, 2014 @ 8:37 pm

10:30 PM….

There are a couple of hundred people on the streets. Not much more than that.

Most of them are wandering around.

Some of them are acting provocatively.

A few of them are engaging in acts of violence: setting fires, looting, breaking windows.

Most people are home or in places like this one.

It is just the image that I think the Prosecuting Attorney and those in charge here wanted.

The Grand Jury Deliberations were done at midday and his office says they needed several hours to do a summary. Fine.

Why not wait until tomorrow morning? Why not wait to the daylight?

I can tell you this, we are close to 300 people at a church in Florissant and the anger here (which includes anger at those doing the damage) is palpable.

A prayer service has started to pull more people into it the prayers and the hymns.

We are probably here for the night.

» Posted By MurphTheSurf3 On November 24, 2014 @ 8:31 pm

Small crowds. Lots of police but they are more measured. Many have gone home. We have 200 or so here at the church watching the press conference and talking. There is a small prayer vigil in a side chapel.

» Posted By MurphTheSurf3 On November 24, 2014 @ 7:52 pm

I do not know. It seems to me that holding the press conference tonight was a calculated lure for those prone to violence. Remember- the night is a mask.

There are about 200 people here at the church now. Hot chocolate, cookies, watching the press conference. A prayer vigil in the side chapel. Discussions.

I don’t know where this will go. We will see.

» Posted By MurphTheSurf3 On November 24, 2014 @ 7:50 pm

Brown Family Statement has been posted on a large screen here….

“We are profoundly disappointed that the killer of our child will not face the consequence of his actions.

While we understand that many others share our pain, we ask that you channel your frustration in ways that will make a positive change. We need to work together to fix the system that allowed this to happen.

Join with us in our campaign to ensure that every police officer working the streets in this country wears a body camera.

We respectfully ask that you please keep your protests peaceful. Answering violence with violence is not the appropriate reaction.

Let’s not just make noise, let’s make a difference.”

75 or so people who were at the police station have now returned here.

We are replaying the entire statement by St. Louis County prosecuting attorney Robert McCulloch on four tv’s in four corners of the church in 10 minute intervals so that those who arrive can see what they did not see at the police station.

A prayer vigil has started in a side chapel.

More are arriving…I am going to help serve cocoa and cookies….. More later.

» Posted By MurphTheSurf3 On November 24, 2014 @ 7:10 pm

The prosecutor is now saying he doe not need the judge’s permission and will go ahead with the release of “pertinent” material…whatever that means.

» Posted By MurphTheSurf3 On November 24, 2014 @ 5:24 pm

In Ferguson- at a church with friends from outside this community and member of the community.

AM I PART OF THE PROBLEM OR PART OF THE SOLUTION AS SOMEONE AT ANOTHER SITE HAS SUGGESTED?

LET ME BE CLEAR…..

I am part of a group, most of whom have a history of activism, are here in solidarity with the community in this church.

As a group we are on the record in opposition to night events out of doors. We regard the decision to announce this tonight as an act of provocation. It is our experience that the successful pattern in protest movements is to have day events so as not to give cover to those who are up to no good.

Our position is that we do not have confidence in the Grand Jury Process used here- as an outrageous exception to the standards in this county and this state. The state prosecutor here has used the Grand Jury in nine previous police shooting cases and in each case that jury has found no probable cause for a charge.

We are here because of the way the forces of law and order have set the stage here seeming to expect that those who will protest will be in violation of the law.

I do not know what happened on that day in August. I think that there is a case for officer over-reaction and perhaps loss of control and there is a case for justified action on the part of the officer. I don’t which is true and I do not have confidence that civil authorities here can be trusted to tell us the truth.

Why am I doing this?

This is called being an American.
Exercising my rights to assemble and to protest.
This is We The People calling on Our Government to be accountable.

» Posted By MurphTheSurf3 On November 24, 2014 @ 5:22 pm

The word from here is that announcement will be at 8 PM CST.

The newest word is that Judge Whittington who supervises Grand Jury efforts in St. Louis County has not agreed to the a reguest from the Prosecuting Attorney. NO REQUEST HAS BEEN MADE. The Prosecutor Robert McCulloch has given assurances that all evidence would be released to the public.

The anger here is growing.

» Posted By MurphTheSurf3 On November 24, 2014 @ 3:10 pm

I am “in Ferguson” right now.

Yes. I am at a church……. I came with a group in two vans. We are NOT going onto the streets once the sun goes down. There are large TV’s set up here and plans for a prayer service after the announcement. And then home.

Christ the King United Church of Christ
11370 Olds Halls Ferry Rd

Florissant MO 63033-7211 (right on the Ferguson Border)

Rev. Traci Blackmon

Good church, good people, good leaders.

They are taking great pains to be sure their guests feel safe.

» Posted By MurphTheSurf3 On November 24, 2014 @ 2:54 pm

The Weekend Music Thread-Whatever Floats Your Boat

Thanks….

Here is a start:

http://www.npr.org/2012/07/04/156207353/six-immigrant-songs-of-triumph-and-tragedy

» Posted By MurphTheSurf3 On November 22, 2014 @ 10:29 am

They’re Coming to America

» Posted By MurphTheSurf3 On November 22, 2014 @ 9:53 am

GOP Columnist: The Very Bad News For the GOP From Their Midterm Victory

By all means….send on the tunes….you have my yahoo address…yes?

As to your note….

I have been stunned today to see the GOP foam at the mouth….and do nothing…hell Fox even went silent on the whole thing.

Hopey, Changey Barack seems to be back!

Obama is pushing hard with his veto pen in one hand and his phone in the other while standing in front of his podium and continuing to lean on his agenda….

You are reading it well….

» Posted By MurphTheSurf3 On November 21, 2014 @ 6:43 pm

Whose ox are you calling a moron?

Yuk, Yuk, Yuk.

[img]http://www.csdixon.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/oxymoronox.jpg[/img]

» Posted By MurphTheSurf3 On November 21, 2014 @ 6:38 pm

And this guy is a lifer.

» Posted By MurphTheSurf3 On November 21, 2014 @ 6:35 pm

His Resume seems to say so….vast experience….

» Posted By MurphTheSurf3 On November 21, 2014 @ 6:34 pm

Thank you. See you at Vox?

» Posted By MurphTheSurf3 On November 21, 2014 @ 6:34 pm

Morning Blog — 11-20-2014

5 Years of attention to the stories that most of us miss.

Thank you so much for reminding us that we are part of a global society and whether we pay attention to it or not, it affects us every day.

Thank you, Kalima, for your focus and your fidelity.

フォーカスとフィデリティ

Fōkasu to fideriti

Murph

» Posted By MurphTheSurf3 On November 22, 2014 @ 9:50 am

Troll Tricks

[img]http://cdn.cultofmac.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/Hobbler-trolls.jpg[/img]

FOUR KIND OF TROLLS

Troll Trolls. The most primitive kind, these unhappy denizens are characterized by bad spelling, lots of CAPITAL LETERS, and a fondness for phrases such as “you liberals”, “America haters”, or “OBAMABOTS”.

Concern Trolls. Marginally more clever, they pretend at being progressive Democrats, but at every turn seem to suggest the most obviously damaging or boneheaded or offensive thing they can. These are easier to catch than you might imagine: since it hardly matters whether someone is an obvious concern troll or just an unmitigated idiot, sometimes it doesn’t pay to think about it too hard.

Conspiracy Trolls. Anyone who repeatedly posts badly sourced stories from site where lunacy is normalcy. What the topic is — 9/11 theories, Israel theories, whatever — is irrelevant, it is the quality of the evidence presented that matters.

Purity Trolls. These are trolls from the left. Otherwise known in real-life as drama queens. No matter how pure your position is, their position is more pure. No matter how compassionate or informed or skeptical or vigorous your opinion is, theirs is more of it. These trolls are insistent that they are the true spirit of liberalism, and spend their time being quite put out that the rest of us don’t turn over our resources, our audiences, and our respect to them, regardless of how thin their positions may be on the merits.

With thanks to Daily Kos.

» Posted By MurphTheSurf3 On November 14, 2014 @ 6:20 pm

An Open Letter to President Obama: Let Republicans Play with Their Own Boehner

Ad…I posted this at yabberz and had an interesting discussion.

My comment…while I do not agree with all that you have said it, the tone is very much in keeping with my mindset.

Obama’s effectiveness in the next two years comes down this: how good i his hardball game. We know he plays chess well- but how are his bareknuckle skills. That is what putting your plan into action will require.

I would also like OBama to make it very clear to the Dems that the base is huge problem: easily swayed, undisciplined, lacking dedication. Turnout out was miserable. The Unions are of no use in most of the country now; a new populist base organization is required that links presidential years to midterms in the minds and hearts of the base.

» Posted By MurphTheSurf3 On November 9, 2014 @ 9:34 pm

The GOP Wave Pool: Money, Lies, Ignorance and Democratic Apathy

I like your tunes too!

» Posted By MurphTheSurf3 On November 7, 2014 @ 1:13 pm

Hi there….I have not been responding a lot here of late…too caught up in many other events. I wanted to say that I always regard your very complete and heartfelt response very highly. I am planning on catching up in the next few days!

» Posted By MurphTheSurf3 On November 7, 2014 @ 1:12 pm

Your hopes…my hopes.

» Posted By MurphTheSurf3 On November 7, 2014 @ 1:10 pm

This is the balancing act the party’s play.

When all is said and done, a lot more gets said than done and that is so much the case in politics.

Ignore the slogans, the rhetoric, the platforms, look to legislation. By their deeds will you know them.

» Posted By MurphTheSurf3 On November 7, 2014 @ 1:09 pm

Good summary of party history. The flipping of polarities is a big part of their history. Labels mean little. Platforms mean little. Only legislation tells the tale.

» Posted By MurphTheSurf3 On November 7, 2014 @ 1:05 pm

I went there after you wrote that….that is a story worth telling so I am….thank you.

» Posted By MurphTheSurf3 On November 7, 2014 @ 1:02 pm

GOP Lite did not sell…yep.

» Posted By MurphTheSurf3 On November 7, 2014 @ 1:01 pm

Your point is extremely well taken. I had not considered it quite as clearly as you have. Since reading this a couple of days ago I noted how rarely, and when they do, how softly, the corporate media speak about the power of money. It has now, more than ever, the feel of some sporting contest where the result is fixed and the color commentators know it but they pretend the race is legit.

» Posted By MurphTheSurf3 On November 7, 2014 @ 12:59 pm

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