As many know far too well by now, Hillary Clinton won the popular vote in the 2016 presidential election by around 2.87 million votes, a margin of victory over Donald Trump of 2.1%. And yet, our archaic and anti-democratic system of the Electoral College handed the White House to this loser (of the popular vote and in so many other ways too).

The number of votes that swung three swing states into Trump’s column, to give him the electoral win, was less than 80,000 votes combined. So, putting aside the polling that categorically shows Trump has lost a great deal of support and is underwater in all of those states right now, the challenge for the eventual 2020 Democratic nominee is to perform similarly to how Hillary Clinton did in 2016 but winning at least 80,000 more votes combined in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

Hillary Clinton lost in Michigan by 10,704 votes out of a total of 4,824,260 votes cast. In Wisconsin, she lost by 22,748 votes out of a total of 2,976,150 votes. In Pennsylvania, Hillary Clinton lost by 44,292 votes out of 6,166,708.

That means that adding a minuscule gain of .03% of total voters in Michigan and .08% in both Wisconsin and Pennsylvania to Hillary’s 2016 totals would lead a Democratic candidate to beat Trump in the Electoral College and take the presidency. Less than 1% in each state…a fraction of how much more President Obama won in these states.

This is not a big hill to climb. Also, the voter suppression unleashed against Democratic voters in these swing states that the Republicans alongside The Russians employed in 2016 should be tempered by Democratic takeovers of the governorships in Michigan and Wisconsin (and a Dem governor who was already in PA), getting that fraction of votes should be more viable.

Yet…the Moderates in Democratic leadership, in the media punditry (along with the Never Trump Republicans who are quite generous with their advice about how the Democrats should adhere closer to more conservative positions) and those Moderates running for president insist that the only way to win against Trump is to go after the white, racist, wholly committed Trump voters.

Despite the easily obtainable data that shows that merely getting out a little more of the available Democratic vote from those who didn’t vote in 2016 would win them the presidency, these (mostly older and white) conservative/moderate Democrats, espouse that struggling to pry the white Trump cultists away from him is the only path to victory. “Appealing to working class Americans” is their code for “white men”…though they are a shrinking segment of the actual and multicultural “working class” in America).

What does this say about these Moderates? On one hand, there are voters who are Democrats, many of whom are younger or African American, who would absolutely vote Democrat if they came out to vote. On the other hand, there are white, rural men who are committed to Trump and unlikely to abandon him to vote for a Democrat for president. Which group represents the easiest and most likely path to Democrats winning?

There’s no question that Moderate Dems want the Dems to win back the presidency. So faced with these options, why are they insisting that the worst option is the only path?

It’s hard to avoid the issue of race in this. What may be perceived by inference is that the valuable voters are white, even when they are diametrically opposed to what Democrats stand for and highly unlikely to vote for them. The message being sent is that chasing the votes of these adversarial white men is more worthwhile than reaching out to younger and African American voters who are already prepared to vote Democrat.

What may also be a factor is the leverage they may think it represents for Moderates, spreading their false meme as an absolute truth, enforcing the belief that only Moderates should be entitled to the nomination because they are the only ones who can appeal to white rural men whose votes are the ones that must be won to beat Trump.

Consider this observation from The Capital Times in Wisconsin after Trump won the state in the 2016 election:

Republican Donald Trump received about 27,000 more votes than Democrat Hillary Clinton. While his performance didn’t stray far from Mitt Romney’s in 2012, Clinton’s fell significantly short of President Barack Obama’s.

Milwaukee County is an area that tends to see vacillation in turnout from midterm to general elections, Burden said, but this year broke the mold.
Preliminary exit polls show that turnout dropped in particular among young voters and African-Americans, Burden said.

This was echoed in Michigan and Pennsylvania as well. It’s not that Trump won because he gained many more voters in 2016 than Romney did in 2012…it’s that the younger voters and African American voters didn’t turn out in the numbers they had in the previous presidential election. Yes, voter suppression contributed to this but so did voter discouragement. Hillary Clinton’s high negatives and lack of campaigning in these states, not generating voter enthusiasm, contributed substantially too. So why isn’t appealing to these Democrats the priority for Moderate Dems?

And are the Moderate Dems unaware that by being focused on praising and pandering to the “white working class”/”good people on both sides” crowd, they are insulting, taking for granted and alienating the very Democratic voters who are younger and African American that they need to actually win?

It does seem that there is an element of race in their chosen view that the path to the White House for the Democrat only goes through white rural neighborhoods.

In the debates and the campaign speeches of moderate Democrats including Joe Biden, John Delaney, Tim Ryan, etc., there are constant criticisms and dismissals of Progressive Democrats as being “coastal elites”, “leftist extremists” and “not reflective of the party”.

Democrats should be celebrating and energizing the youth vote, the African American vote and the Progressive vote. With these segments of Democrats joining moderates and all other Dems at the polling booth, Democrats will win as they did in 2018 and have done so in the past. However, taking these voters for granted in 2016 didn’t work out so well (Senator forced to turn pundit, Claire McCaskill of Missouri spends her time now on MSNBC dismissing Progressives and insisting that only a moderate who appeals to Trump voters can win…despite her attempting that very same strategy in her 2018 re-election and in a year when Democrats all over the country had record wins…she lost by a big margin…having neglected African American and youth voters in her state so she could chase after Trump voters…who ended up voting against her in the end.).

Do these Establishment/Moderate Democrats really believe in what they’re saying and doing? That these enraptured Trump cultists are somehow going to start making cakes for gay weddings and celebrate Black History Month? That the most pragmatic path for Democrats to win in 2020 is to convince zombies to give up eating brains for kale?

Meanwhile, are there other voters than Trump cultists, in addition to Democrats who didn’t vote in 2016, who the Democratic candidate in 2020 could pursue to help push her/him over the top and into the White House?

Using a three lettered affirmative word that was also the name of a Progressive Rock band in the 1970s…”Yes”.

3rd Party voters in 2016.

Those who didn’t like Trump back then and didn’t vote for him. Yes, they didn’t vote for Hillary either but Hillary isn’t going to be the candidate in 2020 so some of those 3rd party voters who won’t vote for Trump are in play. Some will be just as upset about Trump’s horribleness that he’s displayed over the past two and a half years and want to vote for the Democrat in 2020 to get rid of him.

Remember, 2020 will not be the perfectly awful storm of 2016 that made 3rd party voting more viable. Both candidates will not start out with high negatives (just Trump will). There will not be a campaign-long email scandal (unjustified as it was) that the FBI cooperates in and reopens against the Democratic candidate just days before the election (after Trump’s and his cronies’ own ongoing violations of leaking top secret information, even a “trumped up” charge against the Democrat would have little potency). There will not be a “There’s no big difference between them” reason to vote 3rd party now that Trump has staked out being a racist, a criminal, a compulsive liar and has been hammering Americans and immigrants with continuous cruelty.

3rd party voting flourishes in elections when there is no incumbent and when it’s possible for voters to look at both candidates as a choice of “the better of two evils”. When an incumbent president is running on being the worst of all evils, that kind of diffuses the 3rd party argument. Instead, voting to get rid of the Resident Evil is more convincing.

So are there many 3rd party voters that Democrats could draw on, who could be low hanging fruit because they clearly expressed they didn’t want to vote for Trump in 2016? Are there enough to make a difference?

Look below at the comparison in those three pivotal states between the margin of loss for Hillary, that a Democrat would need to cover in 2020, and the number of 3rd party voters that could be pursued.

As is apparent, the Democratic candidate in 2020, apart from winning by just improving a tiny bit on the black and youth Democratic turnout, could also win each state merely by winning a fraction of the anti-Trump 3rd party vote.

The trick here is that those who voted 3rd party did not want to vote for the moderate, establishment Democrat in 2016. They wanted an outsider with a big vision who wasn’t beholden to the establishment and generated enthusiasm. While the argument could be made that they made a very poor choice that year to vote for candidates who never had a chance and opened up the path for Trump to win, a segment of those voters who now recognize what’s at stake in 2020 could easily find a level of comfort with the Democratic candidate…especially if they represented change and not a return to the establishment/status quo that they voted against in 2016.

The more a candidate can excite voters with their vision and is not an icon of the political establishment, the more likely they are to attract the 3rd party voters and Democratic base voters who didn’t turn out in 2016.

So the truth is, a Progressive Democrat with a real vision for improving the country has a bigger base of potential voters to draw on than a Moderate Democrat, when you add in 3rd Party voters and generating enthusiasm among Democrats who may be less inclined to vote. Maybe that’s why Moderate Dems feel the need to insist that the only path to winning is through white Trump voters. Without that meme, how could they prevail with a party whose top priority is beating Donald Trump in 2020?

Democrats could be best positioned to win the presidency in 2020 by nominating and supporting a presidential candidate who doesn’t just want to make things marginally better, offers only incremental change and represents the establishment that many Americans see as having failed the people repeatedly and put them last after the interests of corporations and the wealthy.

A fresh candidate that inspires (even strong supporters of Joe Biden don’t represent that he will excite voters) will energize voter turnout in a way that no Moderate Democrat could. The Democrats have an unfortunately long history of nominating establishment moderates who have lost big elections (i.e. Humphrey, Gore, Mondale, Dukakis, Kerry, Hillary Clinton). But it was the “surprise” Democratic candidates that have won, including Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton (Clinton was a moderate but a brand new face) and of course Barack Obama.

The definition of insanity is doing the same thing repeatedly and expecting a different result. A better definition of insanity is going down any path that makes the re-election of Trump more likely.

Instead, it would seem more advantageous to choose a quality Democratic candidate who can generate the needed enthusiasm within the biggest potential voting base to defeat Trump in the swing states and in the process, make clear to Democrats of color and younger voters that they are valued as Democrats and relied upon to make the difference in winning the White House (and Congress!) in 2020.

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nehalem
Member
nehalem

Whoa – moderate Dems aren’t the demographic that will secure who our nominee is – to begin with. Our party is 51 percent liberal – and that number is growing. So it’s liberal Democrats who will VOTE WITH INTENT as to “choice” – not with ulterior motive. Straight on vote based on our list of priorities- because all things in D.C. have to change – not just dumping Trump out. Democrats heading to caucuses across the nation – know all of that. I know we do. Let’s get REAL ABOUT IT. Main stream news and political anaylsts paid by corporate entities to opine – need to sit back and observe the process. The people’s process. It’s not tied to the status quo’s playbook – anymore.

Jake321
Member
Jake321
kesmarn
Admin

Nate Silver predicted a Hillary victory in 2016.

Jake321
Member
Jake321

And so did you, I bet. If you missed it, this study is not a prediction but a statistical analysis of past primary campaigns. Oh, you can check with Murph, last time out I said my numbers indicated Trump had a good chance of winning. But I didn’t believe them and like you and Nate Silver, was sure Hillary would win. Unfortunately, my numbers say a similar thing this time based on who gets the greatest increase in turnout especially in the swing Rust Belt States. We need a candidate who can do well there. And like it or not, Biden does by far best there against Trump. But it is still early…

Jake321
Member
Jake321

Here’s an article that touches on both our positions.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theatlantic.com/amp/article/588613/

Aquarius 1027
Member
Aquarius 1027

The comparison of the 2016 Democratic campaigns to the current political arena does not provide justice to the realities encountered by every citizen right now. And after two and a half years of enduring the almost daily denigration of American values and the blatant abuse of power within the so-called federal government by Trump and the GOP, there is a far greater unity for all Democrats than from any one sector.

Progressive, Moderate, Centrist, Far Left, Liberal – whatever nomenclature is put upon different sectors within the Democratic party, one truth remains above all else. It is a Democrat who needs to end the malicious mayhem of this atrocious administration. From travel bans to children dying in cages, Democrats are far more united against the inhumane cruelty caused by Trump and his continuous disregard for our Constitution than as portrayed by the hyperbolic create-a-conflict punditry and media platforms.

This nation is not the nation it was in 2016. Besides the absurd actions by Trump, the GOP have been cohorts in legislative and judicial manipulations that put their party first before our country. – Over the next fifteen months, much may change even further in that political arena with consequences which cannot be predicted by numbers alone.

Although who-best-can-defeat-Trump is obviously a factor, there is still this significant consideration with all Democratic candidates…..who actually has the qualifications to best fulfill the duties of the office of the President of the United States of America.

NoManIsAnIsland
Member
NoManIsAnIsland

Very well said, Aquarius!

NoManIsAnIsland
Member
NoManIsAnIsland

Good to see you again, AdLib! And it’s great to see after the time I’ve
been AWOL from Planet POV, you’ve lost none of your fire and verve! In
this very well thought out and documented article you make it plain to see
why a better definition of insanity than that attributed (although with no
verifiable evidence he actually said it) to Albert Einstein is “going down any
path that makes the re-election of Trump more likely.”

Barry Goldwater said in 1964 “Extremism in defense of liberty is no vice;
moderation in the pursuit of justice is no virtue.” Depending on one’s
political orientation, it’s a very famous — or infamous — quotation.

As a guiding principle of life next only to “Discretion is the better part of
velour,” I firmly follow “Moderation in all things — including moderation.”

Therefore I find the word “Extremism” in “Extremism in defense of liberty
is no vice” a tad, well, extreme. But “moderation in the pursuit of justice
is no virtue” rings far truer to me.

I can, and will if asked, give examples of how moderate approaches did
pass Congress while more progressive ones would likely have failed. But
since moderate measures can only yield moderate results, blowback from
the failure to make crucial big changes can, and often is, very damaging
to the effort of implementing significant strides toward a better America.

Jake321
Member
Jake321

Oh, I believe Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton were moderate, White male Southerners who also got strong support from Black voters. As did LBJ who also seemed to be a moderate White male Southerner. Oh, all three were kind of rural guys. Maybe I’m missing something but your narrative has a hole or two in it.

Jake321
Member
Jake321

Well, I find it a bit hard to call those who voted for Obama twice and Bernie in the Primaries as Trump cultists. But who knows, your straw man might have some reality to it. And I don’t know about you but generally I don’t think writing off an entire demographic that has been an important part of our coalition in the past makes much sense. And I don’t know about you but it seems those moderates you like to dump on have the greatest support from just those non-White folk you incorrectly claim they are writing off. Well, that’s what all the national and state polls that I’ve seen at RCP show. Maybe you know better. Maybe you know better than these folk who they should support.

Anyway, we need all the votes we can get from wherever we can get them because if we don’t beat Trump in a landslide there is a good chance he’ll deem the election fraudulent and try to invalidate or ignore it so he doesn’t have to leave office. In that unprecedented case, the only Constitutional way to get him out may ultimately be a two-thirds vote in the Senate to oust him. I would prefer not take that risk. But maybe you like to live dangerously…

MurphTheSurf3
Editor

Bill Clinton won 49 percent of the white two-party vote in 1996. Al Gore won 43 percent in 2000. John F. Kerry won 41 percent in 2004. Barack Obama won a slightly larger share in 2008, but then dropped to only 39 percent in his 2012 reelection bid. Hillary Clinton got the same percentage as Obama.

Pew’s projected percentage of eligible 2020 voters by racial and ethnic group
The study projects that whites will comprise 66.7 percent of eligible voters; Hispanics, 13.3 percent; blacks, 12.5 percent; and Asians, 4.7 percent. Likely voters is far more difficult to project as it is so much a function of variant forces in the election season.

MurphTheSurf3
Editor

Sidebar: This article is the result of extensive research resulting in a well crafted presentation which I generally agree with……

MurphTheSurf3
Editor

I am absolutely in favor of pushing the black, hispanic and young vote….all three of which underperformed in 2016 and did marginally better in 2018. Although I need to point out that any person who is black or hispanic and says that they did not vote because they were not sufficiently wooed by the Democrat is foolish beyond belief. Young people? I say again, we have spent 40 years destroying the backbone of American Democratic Practice….knowledge of how it works and why it is important in the denigration of civics and history.

Here are other insights that impact my position.

Here is a U.S. Census Bureau Chart comparing 2014 and 2018.
comment image

The key Dem leaning populations showed significant increases between the two.

Now consider 2016 to 2018. Surprisingly…..https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/11/12/18083014/2018-election-results-turnout
comment image

Note a key conclusion: Exit polls found that voters were younger and less white than the 2014 electorate, but older and whiter than the group that turned out in 2016. WHAT! It seems that the 50ish crowd, and a significantly enlarge white 50ish crowd were not happy with GOP leadership and moved away from GOP candidates in swing districts.

Exit polling was also revealing. Some 41 percent of voters picked health care as the top issue facing the country, compared with 23 percent for immigration, 22 percent for the economy and 10 percent for gun policy.

38 percent said that how Trumping was handling the presidency influenced their vote in favor of Democrats. 44 percent said it had no influence with 18 percent saying they were influenced to vote GOP.

Dig deeper into those issues and what emerges is that the satisfaction level with health care on the eve of the 2016 election was much higher and that fixes to ACA were what voters wanted. Make it better was a dominant theme. Part of that was the Public Option that did not get into the ACA. Kaiser has found that while support for Medicare for All hovers at about 51 percent (https://www.kff.org/slideshow/public-opinion-on-single-payer-national-health-plans-and-expanding-access-to-medicare-coverage/) that number decreases significantly when the nuts and bolts are discussed.

What does the exit polling show….what drove a lot of this was the perception that Trump and his Congress were undoing the progress made in a number of areas

If the Democrats are perceived as pushing too far too fast on health care (end private insurance and cover undocumented residents), immigration (abolish Immigration and Customs Enforcement and decriminalize illegal entry), education (pay off student loans and make public college tuition-free), race relations (study reparations for slavery and relitigate court-ordered busing) and the environment (remake the whole economy) they will place themselves in position to repel moderates and anti-Trump conservatives.

No wonder that Trump is trying to make four left-wing congresswomen of color, who call themselves “the Squad,” the face of the Democratic Party.

Last year, according to Gallup, 35% of voters identified themselves as conservative, 35% as moderate and just 26% as liberal. So even in these highly polarized times, it’s political malpractice to ignore or alienate the middle.

Jake321
Member
Jake321

Do not that Trump’s core of Whites without a college degree make up almost 50% of the vote. Please let that sink in since Pew found that the total of our three top groups, Hispanics, Blacks and White Millennials together were only about 30% of the vote.

MurphTheSurf3
Editor

Frightening!

Jake321
Member
Jake321

And here’s the latest on 8Chan but still without a mention of the direct Trump connection:

https://new.blog.cloudflare.com/terminating-service-for-8chan/

Speaking of frightening!

MurphTheSurf3
Editor

I find this at the link esp. scary.

Unfortunately, we have seen this situation before and so we have a good sense of what will play out. Almost exactly two years ago we made the determination to kick another disgusting site off Cloudflare’s network: the Daily Stormer. That caused a brief interruption in the site’s operations but they quickly came back online using a Cloudflare competitor. That competitor at the time promoted as a feature the fact that they didn’t respond to legal process. Today, the Daily Stormer is still available and still disgusting. They have bragged that they have more readers than ever. They are no longer Cloudflare’s problem, but they remain the Internet’s problem.

Jake321
Member
Jake321

To ruin your day even more, I Troll a Russian Nationalist site, very pro-Putin, that appears to have Kremlin ties or at least is tolerated by the Kremlin which has openly said it is modeling itself on the Daily Stormer and they are doing a great job of that. They even feature OP’s from the Daily Stormer and Stormfront. If you have a strong stomach try Russia Insider. One of the first things on the Dem’s agenda if we win is to take Putin down before it’s too late.

TOCB
Member

Your analysis makes far more sense to me than trying to get racist white people to vote for Democrats. How do Democrats appeal to these people? Economics? Jobs? The Democratic Party has fought for an economy that would uplift the working class for decades, while the republican party has promoted trickle down economics. Their mantra since Reagan has been that if we give special privileges to the wealthy and well connected, they would take care of everyone else. People who have voted for republicans from Reagan forward supported this. And now both Democratic voters and republican voters blame Democrats for what they have supported republicans in doing.

Republicans have controlled the federal government for the vast majority of the last 45 years. So why is it the Democratic Party’s fault that voters have rejected the party that has performed better related to the economy and civil liberties for the last 45 years, in favor of a racist and economically corrupt party? Americans should be running over each other to get to the polls to vote for Democrats. Democrats should not even have to court them. The fact that a politician is not a republican should be a good enough reason to vote for them.

AND republicans, not only trump but republicans, are racists and bigots. There is not question about that. WHY SHOULD ANYONE BUT A RACIST VOTE FOR A RACIST???