Displaying 151 To 180 Of 295 Comments Is the Insistence of Moderate Dems to Win Back Trump Voters…a Racial Thing? You do like to read things that are not there. I never said that it would be Biden regardless. I said the obvious. Unless at some point one of the other candidates can get the support that Biden now has of non-White voters, he has it in the bag. Maybe you know something no one else seems to know, that a Dem candidate can get the nomination without the full support of non-White voters. Again, please read what I’ve said more carefully. I always say I support Biden NOW because the numbers are in his favor, especially in terms of beating Trump. And it is still very early. If that changes, I’ll then support whomever else looks to be able to get broad support especially from non-White voters and can decisively beat Trump. I don’t care if they are Progressive or not. I want Trump out. Damn, if an offer was made today to have Trump resign so Pence would become Prez, I’d say grab it. Anyway, my task right now is doing what I can to dump on Trump. Sometimes it seems one of yours is to dump on me. But I’m glad you seem to be backing off a wee bit. Oh, I’m not here for your or anyone’s approval. I will be Bah Humbug Jake as always, as well as the numbers guy. » Posted By Jake321 On August 5, 2019 @ 11:51 pm Well, I’d even feel OK if it took an old White guy to beat Trump. Definitely better than if it took a woman of color to lose to Trump. I would be so upset about it I would never support the Dems again since that women of color who lost should have been a Trans Muslim to prove our purity of principle. » Posted By Jake321 On August 5, 2019 @ 8:16 am You should definitely take that last statement to heart. Hey, the point was not the obvious one that front runners lose their big lead but the clear implication that they lose it and don’t win. Who the hell cares if they lose some or most of their big lead and still win? And you damn well made your claim in the context of Biden losing not only his big lead but the nomination based on your view of the graphs and how much better others will do especially Warren. Again, you said I didn’t know how to read graphs. And how is that? What do your press criteria say about you making claims and not backing them up? Oh, when have you ever admitted being wrong? If you recall I did admit being wrong about for-profit vs. nonprofit private health insurance companies. And that was so novel to you it seems that you continued to respond to me as if I never made the correction. I’m sorry you seem to have some problem about someone new on your site that doesn’t always agree with you. But I’m a follower of Murph and here I am. » Posted By Jake321 On August 5, 2019 @ 1:41 am You would do better to trade a bit of your arrogance for some humor. If you missed it as you often do, I was pulling your leg with that question about Bernie and Russia. Now you try this. You accused me of not being able to read graphs and I answered that I sure do know how and repeated what they show. But instead of saying how I was wrong and didn’t read the graphs right, you divert. You often do this. Try to actually deal with the response. Again, what did I get wrong about the graphs? You said I didn’t know how to read graphs. That means everything I said about them was wrong. Please tell me how each of my readings of the graphs was wrong. Damn, start with just one! » Posted By Jake321 On August 5, 2019 @ 1:16 am To ruin your day even more, I Troll a Russian Nationalist site, very pro-Putin, that appears to have Kremlin ties or at least is tolerated by the Kremlin which has openly said it is modeling itself on the Daily Stormer and they are doing a great job of that. They even feature OP’s from the Daily Stormer and Stormfront. If you have a strong stomach try Russia Insider. One of the first things on the Dem’s agenda if we win is to take Putin down before it’s too late. » Posted By Jake321 On August 4, 2019 @ 10:19 pm And here’s the latest on 8Chan but still without a mention of the direct Trump connection: https://new.blog.cloudflare.com/terminating-service-for-8chan/ Speaking of frightening! » Posted By Jake321 On August 4, 2019 @ 9:46 pm Here’s an article that touches on both our positions. https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theatlantic.com/amp/article/588613/ » Posted By Jake321 On August 4, 2019 @ 7:12 pm The rest is rudimentary Census and Google stuff and simple arithmetic, not worth my time spoon feeding you with. » Posted By Jake321 On August 4, 2019 @ 6:20 pm Speak for yourself. What did I say that is not either in the graphs or implied by them? One shows the early front runner winning and one doesn’t. That is usually referred to as 50-50, not proof that in most all cases the front runner loses as you implied. Obama took two big jumps at what look like the early debates and then didn’t fade. You see something different there? Harris took a jump with the first debate and after a couple of weeks faded significantly. You see something different there? Biden has made up for all the lose from the first debate. You see something different there? Warren got no big jump from the first debate and had a steady increase until recently when she leveled off. Biden is still about twice any of the other candidates. You see something different? If you say yes to any of these, you need new glasses. Oh, you don’t like my Russian dig at Bernie and his Babies? Well, the Intel reports said the Russians targeted the Bernie folk and the swing states. And guess what? There were more than enough Bernie voters who voted in each of those states for Trump to make him Prez. Again, what did I state wrong about those graphs? You made a claim. Back it. » Posted By Jake321 On August 4, 2019 @ 6:00 pm You just misunderstand. In the context of this, core demographic does NOT mean they all vote for him or us. The core demographic for Trump is Whites without a college degree and they sure as hell are by far the largest demographic making up almost half the voters. That does not mean lots don’t vote for us just that a supermajority vote for him. The same with our core demographics of Blacks, Hispanics and White Millennials who represent about 30% of the voters. They also don’t all vote for us but a supermajority do vote for us in total. If you would have spent a bit more time looking at the posted material instead of wanting to go on some numbers pissing on posts attack, you would have realized this. So to reiterate, the demographic Trump gets his greatest support from is about 50% larger than our top three demographics. And they are way more represented in the swing states where it counts most. As an aside, folk who work with numbers and stats for a living generally don’t cite numbers in cases like these to the second place. It is meaningless and only obscures the point. Also, this simple stuff is usually thought of as arithmetic not really math. When you have a problem with numbers that I cite, maybe better to ask about them instead of making an attack. But if you would like to have a flaming war about numbers, » Posted By Jake321 On August 4, 2019 @ 12:25 pm Yep, what I notice is it’s 50-50. And that it appears Obama got his two big boosts in the first debates and didn’t fade. Warren got no boost in the first debate and then leveled off. Harris got an Obama type boost in the first debate and has been fading ever since. Biden totally recovered his commanding lead and then some. Bernie last time appears to have gotten his boost as the Russians went into full gear and the gullible Bernie Babies became their echo chamber. But he is still in second place this time with about half the support that Biden has. I think Bernie has seen his day and the old Trot won’t get to make his Revolution after all. I just hope he loses by so much that he won’t be tempted to make an independent run. And as I will always say at the end of these threads until the first primaries through California, it’s still quite early. » Posted By Jake321 On August 3, 2019 @ 11:49 pm No reason to put all our eggs in one basket yet. But by the numbers, the average of the recent national polls by RCP has Biden ahead of Warren by 18. If you want to cherry pick a poll, Harris has Biden ahead of Warren by 26 points. And if you missed it, Biden is now leading on average at RCP by a bit more than BEFORE the first debate. And I bet he increases that lead after this latest debate because your friends decided to gang up on Biden and attack him by attacking Obama and his record. Now how about those swing state polls? Well, RCP has Biden ahead of Warren by 29 points but it is an old poll. And in Wisconsin he’s ahead by 25 points but also an older poll. And in Pennsylvania he’s ahead by 26 points but again with older polls. He’s ahead of her in more recent polls in Iowa by 9 points. By 6 in New Hampshire. By 17 in Nevada. By 26 in South Carolina. By 5 in California. By 13 in Texas. By 11 even in her home state of Massachusetts. Biden also does way better than her in all the polls in terms of Trump. Do note that Biden is the only candidate in the RCP average that has a greater lead over Trump than our lead over the Republicans in terms of the total vote for House seats in 2018. All the others don’t even get close to matching how well we did in 2018. But it is still early. » Posted By Jake321 On August 3, 2019 @ 11:23 pm That might be but it sure isn’t showing up in the National or state polls yet. Biden tops her in all of them both Dem Party and General. He tops her even in her home state of Massachusetts (RCP Ave) by almost two to one for God sake! But it is still early and those are dated polls. » Posted By Jake321 On August 3, 2019 @ 8:13 pm Given that more Whites who voted for Obama and Bernie then voted for Trump in each of those three Rust Belt States I can make the exact opposite of your narrative. Note again that Clinton won by 3 million in the popular vote and it was just a small fraction of the White vote that cost her the election. Also note that those three states are overwhelmingly White and mostly rural. Working Class and rural Whites dominate those states. Their populations are in about the 80% to 90% White range while those who actually vote are significantly more White. So actually, since we know who gave the election to Trump there and we know how White those swing states are, if you want to focus, by the numbers, it should be on the White population in those states. More bang for the buck at the least. I’m not recommending this, just indicating how the numbers actually spell out a different narrative from the one you would like. » Posted By Jake321 On August 3, 2019 @ 8:04 pm Do not that Trump’s core of Whites without a college degree make up almost 50% of the vote. Please let that sink in since Pew found that the total of our three top groups, Hispanics, Blacks and White Millennials together were only about 30% of the vote. » Posted By Jake321 On August 3, 2019 @ 5:39 pm I agree with most of this. But do note that the total of our demographics that you want to emphasize given by Murph is just about 30%. And even adding in White Millennials it is still under 40%. The rest of White voters who you seem to want to write off is at least 50% higher at about 60%. Now I don’t know about you but to me those numbers don’t sound like a winning tactic. Anyway, I’m just an old Lefty Internationalist who never bought into the New Left’s politics based on Melanin level, etc. » Posted By Jake321 On August 3, 2019 @ 5:25 pm Jimmy Carter had charisma? And then there was LBJ. And given how much charisma Trump has and his viscousness, our candidate won’t need much counter charisma. Now things can change. But until any of the other candidates gets strong non-White support, Biden has this in the bag. And Trump will be our best turn out the vote organizer for increasing our non-White vote. Would then be nice to get some of the Obama White Working Class support back as well and not have a candidate who kicks the rotten woodwork to get the Trumpites to swarm. But we still have plenty of time. » Posted By Jake321 On August 3, 2019 @ 5:08 pm You love to counter arguments that have not been made. We not only need to increase our base vote but pull back voters who supported Obama and those other moderate winers whom you would like to ignore. If we want to get rid of Trump we need all. And again, just those non-White voters you would like to get to vote, overwhelmingly support Biden over any of the others. And it is just those candidates who don’t have much non-White support who decided it was smart to attack Obama to try to get at Biden, speaking of a losing tactic. Like it or not this made Biden the winner in the last debate and it is already showing up in the polls. Damn, great idea to dump on Obama who has 97% support among Dem voters. Damn, great idea to dump on ObamaCare that has 85% support among Dem voters and solid majority support among voters in general. Damn, let’s have Articles of Impeachment right now even though it will not remove Trump and there is no guarantee it would even pass in the House. Oh, and a recent poll that finally asked the correct question of do you support Impeachment without removing Trump and got all of 5% support. And Damn, lets just give a trillion or more to pay off all student higher education debt out of the pockets of folk who never went to college or worked their way through college or broke their a$$ to pay off their debt themselves. And damn, while we’re at it let’s go for trillions in Reparations and and and…and give Trump an easy win. I don’t like that very much… » Posted By Jake321 On August 3, 2019 @ 4:50 pm Oh, I believe Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton were moderate, White male Southerners who also got strong support from Black voters. As did LBJ who also seemed to be a moderate White male Southerner. Oh, all three were kind of rural guys. Maybe I’m missing something but your narrative has a hole or two in it. » Posted By Jake321 On August 3, 2019 @ 12:25 pm Well, I find it a bit hard to call those who voted for Obama twice and Bernie in the Primaries as Trump cultists. But who knows, your straw man might have some reality to it. And I don’t know about you but generally I don’t think writing off an entire demographic that has been an important part of our coalition in the past makes much sense. And I don’t know about you but it seems those moderates you like to dump on have the greatest support from just those non-White folk you incorrectly claim they are writing off. Well, that’s what all the national and state polls that I’ve seen at RCP show. Maybe you know better. Maybe you know better than these folk who they should support. Anyway, we need all the votes we can get from wherever we can get them because if we don’t beat Trump in a landslide there is a good chance he’ll deem the election fraudulent and try to invalidate or ignore it so he doesn’t have to leave office. In that unprecedented case, the only Constitutional way to get him out may ultimately be a two-thirds vote in the Senate to oust him. I would prefer not take that risk. But maybe you like to live dangerously… » Posted By Jake321 On August 3, 2019 @ 11:40 am Is This Our Last Chance To Impeach Trump? Well, given the performance by most all the Dem candidates in the debate, if they don’t get to Impeach Trump they will be perfectly happy Impeaching Obama… » Posted By Jake321 On August 2, 2019 @ 9:14 am At this point there is no bigger problem than Trump. And the only way to solve that is with the 2020 election or the grace of God. » Posted By Jake321 On July 28, 2019 @ 4:56 pm The Mueller Hearing? Your Response…. Oh, well… » Posted By Jake321 On August 4, 2019 @ 10:20 pm Thanks. Will keep you in the loop on this. » Posted By Jake321 On August 4, 2019 @ 10:01 pm Hey, maybe if they can nail Trump & Company with 8Chan now he could be Impeached and removed by invitation like Nixon. I sure would support that! As would Pelosi and Biden I bet and Pence & Company… » Posted By Jake321 On August 4, 2019 @ 9:57 pm Finally, finally all the main media are picking up on 8Chan. There’s even a chance the site might be closed today or tomorrow since it’s main server company, I think it is, is finally pulling the purge on them even though they said they wouldn’t just this morning. But not one word by any of them about the Trump ads and the click link to Trump’s campaign site. If this can be nailed at this time there is a chance it might bring Trump down. But I think the media and Dems are chickenshit in actually going after Trump so directly. The best chance would be if Rep. Cummings had an investigation ASAP and tried to nail Trump with this even with guilt by association. Sorry, I’m not in a position or mood to do another article at this time. The one I did last time on Trump and 8Chan got nowhere and we have Trump and lots dead. For now I’ll spend my time pushing this with main media and Congress. » Posted By Jake321 On August 4, 2019 @ 9:39 pm https://www.scribd.com/document/419763495/Fox-News-Poll-July-25#from_embed Go to 47/48 COMBINED near end. And this is the FOX Poll that Trump hated because it showed Biden beating him by 10 points. » Posted By Jake321 On August 4, 2019 @ 9:24 pm Yep, Hispanics and Asians generally have lower turnout than Working Class Whites. But the stats I’ve seen indicate Blacks have a higher turnout. But this could have been definitional in terms of turnout compared to all eligible voters, registered voters or those who didn’t vote but might likely register and vote. When I have a chance I’ll check. But the rate isn’t as important as the relative numbers and the location. That favors Trump strongly, especially in those key swing states. As an aside, the other connection to these mass murders isn’t just 8Chan with Trump but the Russian Trolls, Bots and fake comment sites. They have been pushing for mass murder and civil war for well over a year. Add this to their anti-vac disinformation campaign. Their cyber attacks are aimed at killing Americans, not just causing social and political discord. They are actually now achieving that. This is making war on the US physically as well as institutionally. As soon as Trump is out we must immediately go after Putin and the RF to at least bankrupt the SOB’s. Having the Chechens blowup the Troll Houses in Moscow and St. Petersburg might bring this home to them and get the point across. » Posted By Jake321 On August 4, 2019 @ 10:23 am Whites without a college education also have a relatively low turn out, lower than Blacks. Also, they are the largest non-voting demographic and they are concentrated in the swing states. Millennials is not really a separate demographic because it includes Blacks, Hispanics, Whites without college. Anyway, my sense is Trump is helping our vote more than his own. But it is far from over yet. He can still find a way to gin up his base more than ours and the Dems can still do a lot of stupid things to freak his base and get them to swarm from the rotten woodwork. You know, like making a big thing of Reparations or nominating Harris, etc. » Posted By Jake321 On August 3, 2019 @ 9:22 am In the 2016 election, the demographic that was strongest for Trump, Whites who did not graduate from college, got 44% of the total vote. The three demographics making up our core support, Blacks, Hispanics, White Millennials, were hardly 30% of the vote. The potential of new voters from Trump’s core demographic is some 15 million and they are concentrated in the swing states. So they are exactly whom Trump is catering to and counting on to win next year. It will be much harder for us to counter Trump’s potential new voter draw. So best not to help him kick the rotten woodwork and let him help get out our new voters as he’s doing with his racism stirring up the Black vote. » Posted By Jake321 On August 2, 2019 @ 8:52 pmComments Posted By Jake321
bring it on.
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