Displaying 121 To 150 Of 295 Comments A Racist By Any Other Name Is Still A Racist And as a 99% Ancestry determined Ashkenazi Jew with 100% Jewish upbringing, I puke every time I see him. He looks like a young Eichmann to me. He is a Kapo with no reason to be one. » Posted By Jake321 On August 13, 2019 @ 12:16 am As the numbers guy over at Yabberz I made an estimate of just that. At the least, racist discrimination today was costing our economy at least a trillion a year, about 5% of GDP. But with multipliers and indirect losses it would be more like two trillion a year or almost 10% of GDP. » Posted By Jake321 On August 13, 2019 @ 12:08 am Please name the major Dems you accuse of wanting to base our electoral efforts only on attracting White racist diehard Trump supporters. If any did that I assume our non-White voters are smart and aware enough to not support such a candidate. So by the numbers you can’t be talking about Biden but might be talking about Warren, Sanders and Mayor Pete. And if you were seriously concerned with this issue you wouldn’t be putting near lily White little Iowa as the bell weather but the first actual popular election primary in S.C. as way more representative of where the Dem Party should be in terms of its major base of non-White voters who have the most personal concern about racism. Forgive me if I think you may not be the best to determine for non-White voters what is and what is not a racist approach or who is and who is not a racist catering to racists. » Posted By Jake321 On August 12, 2019 @ 11:59 pm Is the Insistence of Moderate Dems to Win Back Trump Voters…a Racial Thing? So what? It’s not like MSNBC and CNN as well as FOX don’t cherry pick from surveys and polls to meet their narrative of the moment. The RCP average is Biden 30.3 and Warren 18.5. There is not one other poll or survey that has it so close. Generally, in stats when one sample is way different from the others it is considered an outlier and rejected. If you recall MSNBC and CNN went through the same cherry picking after the debates to show that Harris was about to overtake Biden. They failed to note the polls that didn’t show this and now the RCP average has Harris at They did the same with the Impeachment polls. They kept headlining Impeachment support in polls in the 40% range. But they never noted that the question generally wasn’t just about Impeachment. It wa explicitly or sometimes implicitly about support for Impeachment AND removal. When one poll also asked explicitly about support for Impeachment that did NOT remove Trump, it got all of 5% support. As I recall this FOX poll was cited on MSNBC because it showed Biden leading Trump by 10 points. And it drove Trump nuts. Well, they also noted that the poll showed 37% for Impeachment without noting the removal part. And ignited the negligible support for Impeachment without removal. You do need some help on these things and also on how to behavior yourself better and not falsely accuse someone of alternative facts and lying. » Posted By Jake321 On August 15, 2019 @ 12:12 am Thanks…and I hope your Vodka allowance is also available…to help keep you warm in the chill… };o) » Posted By Jake321 On August 14, 2019 @ 12:44 pm Good that you aren’t a betting man especially in terms of her electability in the General. At least according to this survey. » Posted By Jake321 On August 14, 2019 @ 10:28 am Interesting. Now when you have at least a half dozen actual scientific polls which show similar, that would be significant. If you missed it, this is NOT a poll but a survey. It is done totally on-line from folk who are self-selected and have nothing better to do than spend their lives answering some 150 questions. That might explain a bit about why Warren got that support. Another indication might be seen in the fact that the survey summary shows that among Blacks, Biden gets 38 and Warren gets 7. And Hispanics favor Biden by way over two to one compared to Warren. This gigantic discrepancy between Whites and non-Whites indicates yet another problem with this survey in claiming to be reflective of the Dem Party vote on average in the real world. But I have no doubt that Warren has some strong support among young White nerds. What else is new? When the RCP average shows this, then you can crow. Oh, a bad sign even from this survey is that if Biden is the nominee, he is expected to lose to Trump but at least within the error margin. However, if it is Warren, she is expected to be trounced by » Posted By Jake321 On August 14, 2019 @ 10:18 am For sure… » Posted By Jake321 On August 9, 2019 @ 11:31 pm YEP… » Posted By Jake321 On August 9, 2019 @ 11:29 pm Yep, and I don’t see Trump rallies as much different from the Fascist rallies in Italy and Germany. Trump even puts on Mussolini mannerisms and facial expressions. They are studied and intentional. If he wins again, I’m afraid it is all over for our democracy and history will repeat itself. NEVER AGAIN will be again… » Posted By Jake321 On August 9, 2019 @ 7:50 pm I don’t bet anymore since losing in 2016. I only report what the numbers show and as of now Warren has a long ways to go to beat Biden and quite a ways to go to solidly beat Trump as Biden beats him in the swing states that will determine the election. But it is early. » Posted By Jake321 On August 9, 2019 @ 7:40 pm How’d you do last time? Anyway, one poll is meaningless. Among the Iowa polls at RCP, Biden is holding about a 9 point lead over Warren. And in places like S.C. which are important indicators of critical non-White support, Biden leads Warren in the RCP’s average by 3 to 1. In the average of the recent national polls, Biden still leads both Sanders and Warren by more than 2 to 1. And in the RCP polls of Biden and Warren against Trump, he beats her by almost 4 to 1 against Trump. Biden is the only candidate that leads Trump by more than we beat the Republicans in the House races in 2018. All the others are either beaten by Trump or do not beat him by near as much as we beat the Republicans in 2018. Oh, and Biden does way better than Warren in the swing Rust Belt States and beats her in her own home state of Massachusetts by about 10 points, almost 2 to 1. It is early but Warren has a very long ways to go to beat Biden for the nomination and further to go to indicate she can beat Trump where it counts most in the swing states. Anyway, that’s what the numbers show…for now… » Posted By Jake321 On August 9, 2019 @ 7:33 pm And so did you, I bet. If you missed it, this study is not a prediction but a statistical analysis of past primary campaigns. Oh, you can check with Murph, last time out I said my numbers indicated Trump had a good chance of winning. But I didn’t believe them and like you and Nate Silver, was sure Hillary would win. Unfortunately, my numbers say a similar thing this time based on who gets the greatest increase in turnout especially in the swing Rust Belt States. We need a candidate who can do well there. And like it or not, Biden does by far best there against Trump. But it is still early… » Posted By Jake321 On August 9, 2019 @ 7:11 pm I never knew the exact number but given the size of families there back then it must have been dozens since when some relative of mine went back to locate family they found no one but maybe a possible fourth or fifth cousin. Not all we knew of were executed. For example, a young cousin who was forced into a German Officers’ brothel jumped to her death or another cousin who was killed in the last resistance fighting the Germans in the Warsaw Ghetto. But most died one way or another in the Camps. NEVER AGAIN includes beating Trump… » Posted By Jake321 On August 9, 2019 @ 7:15 am Actually not very unlikely since a lot of the Jews who came from Lithuania were from Vilnius where my grandfather came from. And my other grandfather came from around Warsaw again where a lot of Polish Jews came from. The 50-50 was not a reminder of my insecurity but more a thankfulness that I came from the half of the family that made the move to the US and how easy it would have not to be around to think of flipping the coin. As I indicated, my comfort came from feeling it couldn’t happen in the US. That comfort is gone with the arrival of Trump. It wasn’t a skin and bones look the kids had that was so disturbing and frightening but the vacant look in their eyes and their appearance of numbness and lack of animation. We must get Trump out of the White House. All other issues are meaningless until that is done unless those issues increase our chance of winning or decrease his chance of winning and don’t increase his turnout in reaction to our issue or candidate… » Posted By Jake321 On August 9, 2019 @ 6:54 am Lithuania/Poland…we’re Landsleit…don’t recall anything about the Holocaust until I found out about my relatives. All gone. From that point on just thought about flipping a coin as to whether I would be or not be. Became worse when I went to Scout Camp with some kids who had survived the Concentration camps. They looked like the living dead to me since they still were in a kind of shock. Anyway, I thought the US was different until Trump came along. Even McCarthy didn’t seem near as bad as Trump. Yep, NYC near the ocean. And nothing is more important than getting Trump out to save our country and democracy. » Posted By Jake321 On August 8, 2019 @ 8:32 pm You have a little bit but not much on me in terms of years. We also had the evening blackout but wonderful glow in the dark cut outs all over the walls and ceiling in our bedroom. But we were not far from the ocean were ships were sunk. I remember V-E Day and V-J Day very clearly. Not long after we found out all our relatives in Eastern Europe were dead at the hands of the N@zis in Poland and their Nationalist allies in Lithuania. Not one survived. From the time I learned of this, even while facing overt and blatant anti-Semitism here for many years including violence, I always took comfort from the idea that this was the US and nothing like that could ever happen here. Until Trump proved me wrong. So the only goal I have is to see Trump ousted before it is too late. Everything else is a dangerous distraction. So whomever the numbers show has the best chance of beating Trump has my support. Everything else can wait to be dealt with if we get him out. If we don’t, all the rest is meaningless. » Posted By Jake321 On August 8, 2019 @ 2:05 pm Sorry, I didn’t realize this little echo chamber was populated with some Winston Churchill class intellects. I better try harder. I have no idea how the Russians are reacting other than they have this habit of banning me or trying to ban me. But as usual you miss the point. I am there to learn what they are about, what they are doing, what they plan to do. They are at war with our democracy and are our enemy, one that would like to be our existential enemy. Good to know lots about them and what they might plan to do next. Oh, and I do like to give them a needle or two to trigger them…just in my nature, I guess… » Posted By Jake321 On August 8, 2019 @ 12:04 pm I’ve been around the block a few times. Well, way more than a few times. The first political events I recall were my mother having a break down when FDR died and my parents talking about packing up and leaving the US if MacArther came back and ran for Prez and won. Left Liberal politics was part of the family atmosphere. Polls back then I don’t remember. But as a numbers guy, I follow them nowadays and think they are generally a good sample reflective of the the sampled population at the time but of value only well beyond the error factor. And that it takes 6 to 10 of them averaged together to eliminate most of the errors. I used to also follow the bookies thinking the “market” would also be a good indicator. But no more since Brexit and 2016. As of now, the polls significantly beyond the error factor show the nomination and Prez election are Biden’s to loose. And I think I know why. The Great Middle and then some just want some peace and quite. They are tired of the Drama Queen, Infant Terrible in the White House. Biden is kind of the Ford after Nixon. I would feel way more comfortable if he was 20 years younger. If he was, he’d be the next Prez with a very high likelihood. But he is what he is and far from a sure thing. Our problem is that he is the only one of our candidates significantly outside the error factor zone at present. But it is still early. » Posted By Jake321 On August 8, 2019 @ 10:17 am Maybe. But there is no significant evidence of that in the polls yet. Both Biden and Sanders beat her in her home state of Massachusetts. Biden beats her in the swing states and Biden does better than her against Trump in all the polls, National and state. » Posted By Jake321 On August 7, 2019 @ 10:55 pm Maybe that in the future. But as of now only Biden beats Trump decisively in the National and most state polls as shown on RCP. Warren and Sanders have kind of leveled off at about half the Dem voter support Biden has with Harris’s support falling off a cliff. And Biden seems to have more non-White support than all three of them combined. It’s early but as that study I posted for you found, Biden is just about enough ahead this early in the campaign that he statistically has way more chance of getting the nomination than not getting it. » Posted By Jake321 On August 7, 2019 @ 10:43 pm And I toll other neo-Nazi sites. My point if you conveniently missed it was that a likely Kremlin associated site was making itself neo-Nazi. If you don’t understand the importance of that you are beyond hope. And I troll those other Alt Right sites to know our enemy. I find that at least as useful as a comfy echo chamber. What victimhood? Maybe you should consider what you post a wee bit more before that quacking… » Posted By Jake321 On August 7, 2019 @ 9:56 pm And sometimes they are more aligned with Socialists and Libertarians. So what? I would never support a Socialist, Libertarian OR Republican to be Prez of the US (I would make an exception for Bernie if he is our nominee and if he won, oppose him vigorously). My numbers mostly deal with economic projections, cost-benefit, statistics, finance, etc. They are more important to me than any ideology but I will use them to help support and implement more egalitarian and Progressive policies and programs as long as they are practical. And I’ve been asked to do just this and hired to do just this professionally my entire career by Lefty politicians, domestic and foreign. I know folk here don’t like this credentials thing but this is just the reality. (As an aside, I am now mostly retired from the paying part of that profession that lasted several decades and now work mostly in another fun field.) » Posted By Jake321 On August 7, 2019 @ 10:28 am What I say is we must pick a candidate who can most decisively beat Trump or we will not have the chance to try any candidate again. Yes, I think it is that bad. I don’t give a damn about their gender or Melanin level. If Booker or Harris goes through the roof in terms of support among our candidates AND ALSO show they can do the same in the swing Rust Belt States, I’d support either above Biden. For some reason you and others here seem to think this is a racial thing with me. It isn’t. But I find what you and they say to be a racial thing. Sorry, I never gave up my Internationalist economic determinist self back in the ‘60’s and ‘70’s when my Lefty friends were puffing themselves into identity » Posted By Jake321 On August 7, 2019 @ 10:03 am There are numbers and there are numbers. And I have repeatedly said I was never a Republican, never voted for a Republican and would never vote for one. As I recall, you said you were not so pure in these terms. };o) » Posted By Jake321 On August 7, 2019 @ 9:42 am Great. My response to the other “K” is good enough for you as well. See you later… » Posted By Jake321 On August 7, 2019 @ 1:42 am Yep, I always found that New Englanders were the very best judges of who is and who is not a New Yorker. And they for sure don’t have a New York sense of humor. Anyway, the only one I’ve noticed dominating center stage here is AdLib. That sure is not an interest I have. Enemy? Martyr? Troll? That’s funny. Oh well, time to do something a wee bit more useful for a while and actually troll some Alt Right and Russian sites and dig up some more dirt that can be used against Trump and his Trumpites. Enjoy your little echo chamber… » Posted By Jake321 On August 7, 2019 @ 1:40 am I’m sorry to disturb your little comfy group and for your cultural insensitivity to New Yorkers. But I was invited here by Murph along with other survivors of Yabberz. I said I was Bah Humbug Jake there and would not change my ways here or on other sites. And as I mentioned to AdLib if I’m attacked, I will generally respond in kind and then some. If I’m misquoted, I will point that out with gusto. And as a numbers guys, I will especially deal harshly with numerical misstatements and misunderstandings but will always apologize and make a correction if shown to be wrong with my numbers. But I’m not often wrong with the numbers or I wouldn’t have made a nice living as the numbers guy for a few decades. But thanks for your observations. » Posted By Jake321 On August 6, 2019 @ 7:31 pm Here’s a 538 article that might help in terms of our recent discussion: » Posted By Jake321 On August 6, 2019 @ 11:32 am It’s Bah Humbug Jake to you! Oh, who’s never voted for a Republican and never would. And often vote for the Socialist candidate when I know they won’t win. And is so full of Lefty credentials they are shooting out my ears. I’d give you more but that would give away my identity. Having had a serious attempt made on my life for my political organizing, I’d just as well not want to go through that again. » Posted By Jake321 On August 6, 2019 @ 12:05 amComments Posted By Jake321
8.3 to Biden’s 30.3.
Trump. So restrain your euphoria for the time being…
politics.
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