Displaying 271 To 295 Of 295 Comments Nahhhhhhhhhhhh…you like to bad mouth our leading candidates and just that kind of crap hurt Clinton and helped give us Traitor Trump… » Posted By Jake321 On June 18, 2019 @ 1:10 pm Nahhhhhhhhhh…getting Traitor Trump out is first and more so we even have a chance of trying for our other priorities. I like numbers that are reflective of the folk and the numbers indicate that they want Trump out and say that Unky Joe is by far our best bet to do that. But it is still early… » Posted By Jake321 On June 18, 2019 @ 1:07 pm Yet another who doesn’t care if Traitor Trump remains Prez… » Posted By Jake321 On June 17, 2019 @ 3:03 pm Virtually every day Traitor Trump does despicable things worse than anything anyone of the Dem candidates has done in their lifetimes. Goal one, two, three and four are getting Traitor Trump out. At this time by far the best shot at that is the 2020 election. Impeachment won’t do it and God as well as Skull & Bones seem on vacation. Thus we must run the Dem with the best chance of beating him. As of now, by far that is comfy, cuddly Unky Joe… » Posted By Jake321 On June 17, 2019 @ 1:58 pm A Hardy Hidey-Ho to All Yabberzis and Welcome to the Planet Hi All. Too bad, Bah Humbug Jake is here… » Posted By Jake321 On May 31, 2019 @ 7:33 am Seven Reasons Why Democrats Should Impeach Donald Trump Pelosi is sure leading on this. You just don’t like where she is leading. And note there have been some really great not so nice leaders like Stalin, Pol Pot, Henry the VIII, Mussolini, Genghis Khan, Castro, Oliver Cromwell, even Hitler, etc. So leadership in and of itself doesn’t assure a good result depending on the eyes of the beholder… » Posted By Jake321 On June 8, 2019 @ 7:05 am Very true. About the best is the RCP average of the major recent polls. They called the 2016 Popular Vote pretty closely for Clinton but mattered not in terms of the Electoral College since the actual results and the polls were so close they were within the margin of error…it was the narratives, talking heads and bookies who got it dead wrong… » Posted By Jake321 On June 7, 2019 @ 3:31 pm Some leaders lead the troops to victory. And some leaders lead the folk over a cliff. At this point, Pelosi has a pretty good record of not going over cliffs. Also, having spent a very long time active on the Left, I’m generally leery of those who see themselves as the Vanguard of the People. And as I mentioned, the numbers as I saw them were correct last time and the narratives I got browbeat into believing were not. Will not make the same mistake again. But it is early yet and the numbers can change, including any indication more exposure of the Mueller details make a difference. They will be out before there is any formal move for Impeachment I believe. If your assumptions start showing up in the numbers as I see them, plenty of time to chance my mind…and the same for Pelosi. Oh, we’ll see how the Old Pro Joe deals with this. So far he’s with the bulk of the Dems in Congress and the bulk of the voters. » Posted By Jake321 On June 7, 2019 @ 3:24 pm Yep, looking more positive for us and unless Trump gets potential voters who are already on his side to actually vote, we have a chance of winning with a calm centered known comfortable candidate. On the plus side, Biden beats Trump by 4 points in the latest Texas poll but noteworthy is Trump beats all the other Dem hopefuls. On the down side, in another recent poll 54% think Trump will win even though the RCP average shows Trump with only a 44% approval. Go figure… » Posted By Jake321 On June 6, 2019 @ 10:51 am Here’s the Nate Silver interactive model from 2016. It’s still working but the basic data has not been updated yet. Fun to play with. First test is to input the actual 2016 vote by demographic and see how close the results match the election outcome. Then look for what we might do and what the Trumpites might do as a rough first take on 2020. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-swing-the-election/ » Posted By Jake321 On June 6, 2019 @ 10:21 am Interesting poll which actually asked about Impeachment. The question was should Congress start an Impeachment process, it didn’t ask whether he should be Impeached and removed. The key Independent block in the middle were 60% to 30% against even starting Impeachment. And they know all about what a liar he is and how bad in other ways he is and 57% have an unfavorable opinion of him. But still, a BIG NO to even considering Impeachment. Whites without a college degree are 70% to 26% against considering Impeachment. This is even greater than Trump took that demographic in the election. Oh, and this is by far the largest single demographic in voter terms with 44% of the total vote count in 2016. Our three top demographics together come to only 33% of the total vote (Millennials with 13%, Blacks and Hispanics with only 10% each). As an aside, from that poll it seems all the bad things about Trump have been seen as bad going way back. Amazingly, all his spending over two years confirming things about himself hasn’t much changed people’s opinions of him one way or another. He was a congenital liar from day one and before. He has remained a congenital liar all along. And most knew this from day one. I don’t expect some great epiphany among the votes with or without Impeachment. Trump was what he is and is what he is and most knew from the get go that Trump is Trump. How proving the obvious as the prime obsession of the House for more than a year will gain us more votes kind of escapes me…we should only do things that will gain us votes without motivating Trumpites to swarm so we can actually beat the SOB in 2020. » Posted By Jake321 On June 5, 2019 @ 10:08 pm Seems you misunderstand what I said. And part of that is my fault for not being clearer. First, the 50 million instead of the 100 million is from the GROSS potential shown in the summary Table and other more detailed Census studies which in effect make a difference between those with some possible potential and those without it or totally unknown. Of course, that potential varies from say registered voters just out of town or sick and those who are just sick and tired of politics but still aware enough to maybe in some rare circumstances actually get out to vote. Among that gross potential using the Census studies and other voting patterns by demographic I calculated that this gross pool of potential voters split roughly in half. As part of this analysis I looked at where the total potential for each side was by demographic. By far the largest demographic was Whites without a college degree, Trump’s core demographic. Then I divided each demographic by their vote percent in 2016. This gave percent for Trump vs. Dem for each. This yielded gross potential for each with by far the highest for Trump’s core demographic of white without a college degree of about 15 million. There is no single core Dem demographic with more than about 7 million. Note that in all demographics there were both Trump and Dems with varying percentages. So the remaining 10 million gross for Trump were spread around other demographics but with a very significant and focused core group that matched his most fervent actual voters. Our 25 million were all over the place with no dominant core group. And each with its own varying and even competing interests. Thus we have nothing like Trump’s dominant and attuned gross core potential. And I never intended to even imply that Trump or the Dems could actually get all of their gross potential. Just that Trump had a much larger single focused core demographic to draw from than we have. And one that happens to feel a serious existential threat that can be used to motivate them to vote. I also reinforced the analysis by noting that the very large core Trump demographic tends to vote at a lower rate than most all our diverse demographics who tend to vote already at a higher rate. This gives Trump a greater margin to draw from. So it is easier to increase from say 50% to 60% than from 70% to 80%. Or in proportional terms, from say 50% to 60% than from 70% to 84%. Then I gave you the data on why Trump’s core potential voter demographic is way stronger than ours in the key Rust Belt Swing States. There are no current swing states were our demographics are similarly dominant. Hope this helped. If you missed it, the only way to stop Trump from being Trump is to get rid of Trump. Even you know that Impeachment itself can’t do that. Only an election, God, or Skull & Bones can do that. An extended Impeachment process won’t influence God much unless it gives Trump a stroke or heart attack. And Skull & Bones would have acted by now if they were going to act. However, if events aside from Impeachment seriously endanger our national security because of Trump they still might act as a last ditch effort to save the country in their eyes. That leaves the election and a judgment as to whether an extended, divisive, dominating Impeachment process with no hope for Trump’s removal will get us more votes than it gets Trump. » Posted By Jake321 On June 5, 2019 @ 12:01 am It would be best if you didn’t misquote me. I never said it was 25 million for Trump and zero for us. Or 15 million for Trump and zero for us. Or any such thing. The point is that Trump has a much larger single potential core pool to draw on than we do. And for various reasons they are easier for him to get than for us. The three Rust Belt Swing States that gave Trump the White House all have way higher than average non-Hispanic White populations than the national average of 63%. Their average is about 79% with a range of about 76% to 81%. They also all have a higher percent of those without a college degree than the national average. Thus they have a lot of potential core Trumpites, way more than our pool of potential core voters. (The Census, Google and a little arithmetic are your friends.) I like the early State polls also. They show Unky Joe besting Trump better than the other Dem candidates in most all cases. But note in many of those cases they have an undecided greater than Biden’s margin over Trump or don’t indicate what the undecided is. And do remember that one of the worst mistakes in combat is underestimating your enemy and overestimating your strength… » Posted By Jake321 On June 4, 2019 @ 7:08 pm First I’m over estimating. Then I’m under estimating. And I never said Trump would get all the 15 million but that his potential to draw from was out of a core potential of 15 million. We have a similar range of likelihood of non-voters who might vote as you indicated. Some of the non-voters are more likely to vote than others given the circumstances. And about half of ALL the some 100 million non-voters are hopeless. The about 50 million shown in Table 4 that I cited are included because there is at least a modicum of hope they might to a greater or less extent actually vote under the right conditions. However, the potential from any of our core demographics is not half of the single core pool Trump has. And again, I NEVER said we have zero potential. And again, by the numbers, Trump has a larger single core pool to draw from. They will be easier for several reasons for him to get. And they are strategically located in the swing Electoral College States. We can test my rough analysis when Nate Silver updates his interactive State based voter model. It sure seemed an accurate predictor last time, at least when I assumed Trump got a marginally getter call on his core demographic than we got on ours. » Posted By Jake321 On June 4, 2019 @ 4:44 pm And as I tried to point out to you several times before, by far the largest part of those non-voters who might be motivated to vote are Whites without a college degree who tend to be in the swing Electoral College States. The very core of Trump’s Trumpite support base. Kick the rotten woodwork too hard and they will swarm… » Posted By Jake321 On June 4, 2019 @ 2:45 pm If you had ham, you could have ham and eggs. If you had eggs. It’s not worth the risk. And the bulk of the public do not want an Impeachment fight that will suck up all the political oxygen for the next year or so with near zero chance of him being removed by the Republican Senate. And Trump has a larger potentially more motivated non-voting core base than we do who will more likely swarm to the polls than our usually non-voting folk. It can change. But Pelosi has it correct for now… » Posted By Jake321 On June 4, 2019 @ 2:40 pm I’m sorry for my shorthand way of summarizing the research I’ve done. Got into the habit after five years at Yabberz of not linking to much of the detailed data. Since near never was the summary I gave successfully challenged, my numbers summaries and conclusions were usually taken at face value. Guess I’ll have to earn that position here over time. Anyway, don’t have the time at this point to do a footnoted research paper on the voter potentials. But the major issue you raised about a 50 million total realistic potential vs. the 100 million can be found in one of the many voter studies the US Census does: https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2018/demo/P20-582.pdf Check Table 4 and the narrative around it. Most of the other figures I used come from this and other such studies plus simple calculations. Sorry again that I don’t have the time right now to get into the detailed derivations. But do note, I never said the Dems had zero potential. In fact, in my last post I made it clear that I was making a comment about the relative size of the potential for Trump vs. the Dems. And most important, how Trump for many reasons has a better chance of tapping his large core potential voter base than we have tapping ours. I will try to give more links and citations in the future until I’ve established my numbers credentials here as I did at Yabberz. Oh, for the 2016 election I did a similar analysis that showed how Trump had a good chance at winning (check Murph about this). It was easier then since Nate Silver @ 538 had an interactive model that included many of the factors I’ve used this time. If he does this again, I’ll check my rough projections with it. » Posted By Jake321 On June 4, 2019 @ 5:24 am Well, not quite. I looked at the details from various sources about that 100 million. For many reasons half of them might possibly be gotten to vote and about half are hopeless. So at best, the actual potential pool is more like 50 million. I then looked at the different voting demographics and what proportion voted for Trump vs. Clinton as well as what percent of the particular demographic votes. Then also looked at where they were. Overall, at first blush, roughly about half the total potential voters are Trumpites and half are Dems. But almost two-thirds of Trump’s potential is concentrated in his very core demographic, Whites without a college degree, some 15 million. We have no similar core demographic that even has half the potential of these potential core Trumpites. So here are the reasons Trump’s potential is so much more valuable than ours. First, as indicated they are concentrated which makes attracting them much easier than going after our diverse groups with diverse interests. Second, the Trump core demographic has one of the lowest usual turnout rates and ours have generally higher turnout rates. Which means on average we are already getting our folk to the polls. So if we can motivate 5% more of our potential voters to vote from any demographic it has a much lower impact than if Trump motivates 5% more. He gets a bigger bang for his buck. 5% of 50% who don’t now vote is greater than 5% of 30% who now don’t vote, for example. And generally, it is easier to get those extra voters from a larger potential margin than a tighter one. Further, those potential Trumpite voters tend to be in the swing Rust Belt States. Ours are all over the place. Finally, motivation is key to getting those potential voters to actually vote. Trump’s core demographic feel that they are in an existential situation. And they are. This to them is their last hurrah. And hopefully it will be. They perceived themselves as the dominant population now slated to minority status. They felt neglected and put upon. They feel that Trump is their last hope. They feel like cornered animals. This can be used by Trump as a great motivator. I don’t think most of our groups have any similarly strong motivator. And obviously, Impeachment which the core Trumpites will see as a Coup attempt plays right into this. What I tried to point out about the poll is how internally contradictory it is. Again, 55% said they won’t vote for Trump but only 29% of them said they would vote for a Dem regardless. I was just making a point about the poll, not the likely reality. Sure, regardless of who the Dem is more than 16% will vote for whomever the Dem is. However, this puts the 55% in question. It means that without the right candidate, that 55% are not all voting for the Dem. They might just not vote. Or it raises the potential for third party candidates if the Dems » Posted By Jake321 On June 3, 2019 @ 5:34 am The theme of the Campaign will be “Enough Already!!!” The folk are sick and tired of all the drama and excitement. They what a rest for awhile. They want a comfy, cuddly Unky, a known quantity, an adult, in the White House to replace the Enfant Terrible Drama Queen stinking up the place today. And right on time along comes our Unky Joe…and the folk sure as hell don’t want the 24/7/365 excitement and divisiveness of Impeachment no matter how justified it is… » Posted By Jake321 On June 2, 2019 @ 4:52 pm Well, not quite. That 55 is very weak since only about a third of them say they will vote for the Dem regardless. About two-thirds say it will depend on the Dem nominee. So by the numbers of this poll the Dems have only about 15% of the electorate nailed as of now. Also note that Trump won with about the same percent of the electorate he still has. It was close but he won. So that’s not a convincing numbers argument. We have no idea how a protracted and extremely divisive Impeachment process will effect the already fatigued electorate in the middle. Especially since it will put all our winning bread and butter issues on the back burner. The other factor that the current poll doesn’t evaluate is strength of motivation. It’s hard to see how Impeachment motivates voters for us more than voters for Trump. And as the numbers guy, I disagree about the potential for new voters. As of now, Trump has a potential pool of 15 million from his core demographic to draw on. We have no similar large solid base demographic to draw on. And for various reasons, it will be easier for him to get some of these new voters than it will be for us to get new voters. And again, his potential voters are largely in the swing states. Ours are note. I went through this last time were my numbers showed Trump with a good chance to win (check with Murph about this) but I didn’t believe the numbers and got browbeat into accepting the narrative that Clinton would walk away with it so no reason to do much in the key Rust Belt States. I won’t make the same mistake again. With the numbers still not good for us and with the potential greater for Trump than for us, the great risks of Impeachment compared to the possible rewards are not worth it…unless the numbers change… » Posted By Jake321 On June 1, 2019 @ 8:57 pm Other than being Bah Humbug Jake at Yabberz, I was the Numbers Guy. So here’s a PS by the numbers. About 55% also didn’t vote for Trump in 2016 and last I checked he’s unfortunately Prez. Also, less than a third of those who are at this point against Trump are saying they definitely will vote for the Dem. About two-thirds say it will depend on the Dem candidate. Oh, about half of voters say the Mueller Report doesn’t matter to them in terms of how they plan to vote. Two-thirds to three-quarters say other hot issues WILL effect how they vote. Others recent polls have found that most don’t want Trump Impeached and removed. About two-thirds want to close the book on the Mueller Report and move on. Even among likely Dem voters only about a quarter list Impeachment as their top issue. Now all this is among the usual folk who usually vote. The extra concern is that Trump’s core demographic is solidly behind him and by the numbers there are twice as many of them who usually don’t vote but may with the right motivation than any of our core base groups. And as I mentioned elsewhere, these potential Trumpite voters tend to be in the swing Electoral College States. Hey, I want the SOB out as much as anyone. But until the numbers indicate how Impeachment clearly helps us win in 2020 and how it won’t be a kicking of the rotten woodwork, best to NOT start it and start putting our bread and butter issues out there way more… » Posted By Jake321 On June 1, 2019 @ 9:10 am I tried to explain that. Motivation. There is no indication that going for Impeachment will motivate anyone to get out and vote for us who wouldn’t already vote for us. It is quite different for the Trumpites. The ones who normally vote will feel especially under the gun and will for sure get out to vote for Trump. But more important, there are a potential 15 million Trumpites who normally don’t vote who will feel under existential attack and have a great enough motivation to actually vote this time. We have no such pool of potential usual non-voters who would be motivated to vote because of an Impeachment attempt that will fail to remove Trump. There is no indication that there is any more major dirt at this time than Mueller has already uncovered. It will be mostly redundant and legalese. It will not turn one Trumpite against Trump. If Mueller has not moved the middle, at this point without a smoking gun and a serious criminal indictment, no reason to think many undecided folk will based on all this drama vote for us and not Trump. The greater likelihood is they will be fed up and exhausted by it all and pissed that a failed Impeachment was a major distraction from the issues they most cared about like Universal Healthcare. They might not vote for Trump because of this but might vote for Republicans for Congress, etc. and just not vote for our Prez candidate. Or not vote at all. But all said, it is the Trumpites in the rotten woodwork who have a great potential to swarm, especially in the swing states, because of Impeachment that most concerns me. Also the backlash Impeachment will generate from the middle who see it as just a great distraction from what they see as their day to day concerns. However, if Trump bucks the courts as his hero Jackson did, Impeachment would not seem as much of a coup by the Trumpites nor as an irrelevant distraction by the middle. Yet by then it would be near election time and that will be seen as the way to get him out, NOT Impeachment… » Posted By Jake321 On June 1, 2019 @ 12:31 am And there is just one really really good reason not to Impeach at this time. It will likely gain us no votes and will more than likely gain Trump lots of votes. It will very likely help Trump and the Republicans win. If they do, kiss all those fine basic principles goodbye. Look where we are after only two and a half years with Trump and him now accelerating his consolidation of power with attacks on all our basic institutions. Obviously with a clear goal to have sovereign immunity and rule as a king, emperor or dictator. Nothing is worth the risk of him remaining in office for several more years. NOTHING. Unless it can be absolutely shown that Impeachment will get him out or cost him the election (or a stroke or heart attack) the risk is not worth it. But the indications are the opposite. The mass of the voters don’t want what they see as the distraction of Impeachment. They know that it will suck up all the political oxogen. Near nothing else will be done. No bread and butter issues will be dealt with. The beacon will not be brought home. It will totally eclipse our other issues and totally absorb our candidates in the Primaries and then in the General. It will not motivate more of our base to vote but will motivate the Trumpites. And it won’t just be the voting Trumpites who feel an existential threat against their God-Emperor but more importantly all the ones who usually don’t vote but will. They know this is their last hurrah demographically and they love that their middle finger occupies the White House. They will likely swarm out of the rotten woodwork to counter what they will see as a Deep State Coup aimed at chopping off their middle fingers which they are quite attached to. They will have the motivation of a cornered animal given the demographics. And by the numbers, there are some 15 million of these potential voting Trumpites and they are concentrated in the swing Electoral College States. Also, it is getting clearer all the time that the folk are getting sick and tired of all the drama and excitement. They want to take a rest for awhile. Why the hell do you think comfy cuddly Unky Joe is doing so well? Note, virtually all the added support he got on announcing his run came from the supposed hot to fight the great Progressive fight of the Bernie supporters. Half of the Bernie supporters also want a rest. Got that? And Impeachment offers anything but a rest. Now, if say, it gets to a place where Trump plays Andrew Jackson and tells the courts up to and including the SCOTUS to “F” themselves, things could change. Lots of Republicans and a majority of the public might finally just say enough is enough. Impeach and maybe even remove the SOB, one way or another, to try to get some peace and quite. But at this time, jumping off the cliff on principle isn’t too appealing to me…and thankfully, that is how Pelosi and the overwhelming majority of Dems in Congress see it. This is very much in keeping with how the bulk of the great middle who usually determine the election see it… » Posted By Jake321 On May 31, 2019 @ 10:08 pm A Proposed Cheat Sheet for Running Against Trump in 2020 YEP!!! The folk are tired of the Drama Queen, Enfant Terrible in the White House. The want a rest from the 24/7/365 excitement, conflict and uncertainty. Our Campaign Theme should be “Enough Already!!!” Of course, this means we need a candidate who is a known comfortable adult, even a cuddly one. Maybe that’s why Unky Joe is so far ahead…sorry Opie Cat… » Posted By Jake321 On June 7, 2019 @ 3:48 pm I have the same with my older age trips to the doctor. But I always say yes, I’m depressed. The doc looks concerned and asks Why? I just answer…who wouldn’t with Trump in the White House? I’m in the SF Bay Area and that always gets a knowing laugh from the serious doc’s. » Posted By Jake321 On August 7, 2019 @ 1:19 pmComments Posted By Jake321
By my numbers, he has a better shot at it than we do. And obviously, that is how Pelosi and the bulk of the Dems in Congress at present see it.
nominate someone who is not a consensus candidate with
appeal to the middle. Luckily we have one at this time but
much can still happen and the
Dems have “F’ed” it before…
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