Displaying 31 To 60 Of 295 Comments Biden Takes on Trump: A Call to Integrity and Courage in The Wave of Two Mass Shootings That’s a good idea. I’ll wait for AdLib or some other to bring up something else using polls and numbers and stats they clearly don’t understand to be my autistic self again. In the meantime, I’ll get back to preparing for my next teaching gig in a month or so instructing professionals in my field in Europe on how to use my techniques. Guess they want to learn to be autistic. Guess the Fulbright folk also like autistic people to teach in their name around the world since they did award me a five year international teaching fellowship. I’m sure AdLib has one in statistics and Kesmarn has one in Clinical Psychology. » Posted By Jake321 On August 21, 2019 @ 10:28 pm And who might those Yabberz folk be, I might ask? » Posted By Jake321 On August 21, 2019 @ 8:45 pm My bet is you have as much in the way of credentials to make that argument as AdLib has to argue the fine points of numbers and stats. » Posted By Jake321 On August 21, 2019 @ 8:42 pm Well, that doesn’t change the fact that you don’t understand the difference between your cherry picking polls and an average of the major polls. Nor of what a trend is and is not. » Posted By Jake321 On August 21, 2019 @ 8:13 pm Guess you haven’t read the posts AdLib has made about me. As I said I would respond in kind and then some. Only fair. » Posted By Jake321 On August 21, 2019 @ 8:07 pm Now isn’t that a personal attack in violation of this site’s Holy Terms of Service? » Posted By Jake321 On August 21, 2019 @ 8:00 pm Now isn’t that a personal attack in violation of your Terms if Service? » Posted By Jake321 On August 21, 2019 @ 7:58 pm Maybe. But it not showing up in the average of either the national polls or most all the key states. If Warren actually renews her momentum and ever shows she can do better than Biden in most of the key Primaries and the most important swing states, that would be something to write home about. Hey, it would even be kind of telling if she can beat Biden in her home state of Massachusetts and do better than Biden against Trump there. Wouldn’t hurt if she could get more than nominal support from our key non-White Dem voters. » Posted By Jake321 On August 21, 2019 @ 7:54 pm Interesting that you apply that only to those you disagree with. And actually add nothing to the really important issue of who might be best to beat Trump. And what the strengths and weaknesses of our candidates are as reflected in the real world of aggregate voter attitudes and intentions. You may not like my persistence in using real world numbers to make a point but I’ve done quite well professionally with that for many decades, thank you. » Posted By Jake321 On August 21, 2019 @ 4:08 pm You may be correct about that. But what I’m watching is how that effects his support among Dem voters. Since the top issue for Dem voters is beating Trump, if Biden can point to how he beats Trump more decisively than any of the other Dem candidates, especially in the key Rust Belt Swing states, he expects to get greater support from the Dem voters in the Primaries. And of course by appealing more to the Trump voters who, say, voted for Obama twice, he will have way better poll ratings in just those states that made Trump Prez then the other Dem candidates. It’s a twofer for him. Who know’s whether it will work? We are far from a slam dunk with any of our candidates as of now. I just wish Biden was 20 years younger but he isn’t. Still, as of now he does way better against Trump in the average of the national polls as well as the state ones than any of the other Dems. » Posted By Jake321 On August 21, 2019 @ 1:38 pm You know better than the average of the top major polls as published at RCP and 538. Before you make that claim, maybe you need to first improve your arithmetic skills. » Posted By Jake321 On August 20, 2019 @ 11:41 pm Well, that seems to be working just fine since he beats Trump by about 9 points in the RCP poll average as of today. He already has 50% voter support for the general election. And beats Trump in all the Swing States and a few other states like Ohio, Florida and Texas. But it is early. Warren also is ahead of Trump but by a not very significant about 3%. The same holds in the Swing States where Biden is ahead decisively and Warren is only marginally ahead. Anyway, Biden being Biden gets way more votes than Warren being Warren. But it is early. » Posted By Jake321 On August 20, 2019 @ 11:36 pm If you don’t think Trump is fearful, that’s awfully. » Posted By Jake321 On August 20, 2019 @ 11:12 pm Well, she better start doing that soon since she hasn’t been inspiring much of anyone new for at least a month according to the average of the major polls at RCP and 538. And to help you out with the numbers as I need to do most all the time, 29% from 100% is 71%, not 81%. » Posted By Jake321 On August 20, 2019 @ 10:58 pm So? 2007 was a thousand years ago in terms of our politics today. And I believe you said the same about Bernie in the 2015 Primary polls in a recent post. And who did you say got the nomination in 2016? It is all very early and Warren’s old trends might reignite after she has gone nowhere in terms of narrowing Biden’s lead over her for the past month. Her trend has stalled for now if it wasn’t just fleeting. But, again, lots of time still to go. If and when she gets back on track consistently narrowing her gap with Biden, come back and crow. When she gets any significant support from our key non-White voters, come back and crow. When she beats Biden in the Rust Belt Swing States, come back and crow. When she does even as well against Trump as Biden does in the key Swing States, come back and crow. Damn, when she beats Biden in her own home State, you might have a reason to crow. » Posted By Jake321 On August 20, 2019 @ 2:59 pm Again, poll averages are way more indicative than any one poll. Sorry you never took stats or don’t understand them. Now you go argue with Real Clear Politics whose poll averages for Biden with the new CNN poll included today are 29.0 with Warren at 15.8, for a Biden lead of 13.2, the same as yesterday. And a month ago it was Biden about 28 and Warren about 15, which is ALSO about 13 points. So neither shows any particular trend up or down for the past month and the differential is essentially level. Now you can jump up and down and stamp your little feet and claim otherwise but you are wrong again. And if you missed it, which you obviously did, I used the CNN poll to show you why you should NOT use just one poll. That is cherry picking, a big no-no. And the 14 that Warren got in the CNN poll is not an outlier since it is in the midrange of the polls RCP used to get it’s average. The outlier might be the Hill poll with her at 10. You really are a bad student. But I won’t give up on you yet. Your heart is in the right place even if you arrogantly insist you are correct when you are not. » Posted By Jake321 On August 20, 2019 @ 2:37 pm Oh, since you like to cherry pick so much, here’s your cherry of the day: Biden’s “…up 7 points compared with a late June CNN survey. No other candidate has made meaningful gains over that time.” Warren DROPPED one point. Where oh where has your little Warren trend gone? Some might even say it was fleeting. Anyway, this shows why you should stop with your grand pronouncements based on cherry picking. Better, only watch the poll averages and please hold down on your insults. » Posted By Jake321 On August 20, 2019 @ 11:53 am Well, not so fact. Go to the RCP site that gives the average of the polls: And what do you see? Today Biden is at 30.5 and Warren is at 17.3 which is about a 13 point lead for Biden. Now look down a bit and there is a graph of the trend lines for all the Dem candidates. Any ongoing trends should show up over the past month. So set the graph for the past month by clicking the 30 day button at the bottom of the graph. You will see that 30 days ago Warren and Bernie were tied at about 15 and Biden was ahead at about 28. Unless the rules of arithmetic have changed recently, 30 days ago Biden was ahead of Warren by about 13 points, about the same that he is ahead of her now. The only trend this indicates is that the differential between Biden and Warren has leveled off over the past month. Yep, Warren’s trend to close the gap with Biden has leveled off over the past month and some might thus even call her past trend fleeting. Thank you, I accept your apology. Now what is the problem with your argument? Simply, you didn’t compare averages, you made that big statistical no-no by cherry picking individual polls. Worse, you cherry picked individual polls from different polling groups. That is effectively comparing apples and oranges in addition to cherry picking. I said I would be nicer and try to educate you on these things. But you are a difficult student. Anyway, as we all say, it’s early and anything can happen. As an aside, there is a possible counter statistical argument to what I said. But I’m not overly worried about it since I’m not sure you or anyone else on this thread or this site would see it. Besides, since it would take some computer time to check out, which I have not done, I have no sense whether it would make my point stronger or weaker. » Posted By Jake321 On August 20, 2019 @ 2:10 am I posted the following to Murph. It was meant for you: Since you like trends so much, I took a closer look at the RCP averages over the past month. Biden was about 28 and Warren about 15. Today it’s Biden at 30.5 and Warren at 17.3. The differential favoring Biden has gone from about 13 a month ago to about 13 today. Damn, you’re correct, there really is quite the earth shattering trend for Warren…oh, never mind… » Posted By Jake321 On August 19, 2019 @ 3:26 pm Since you like trends so much, I took a closer look at the RCP averages over the past month. Biden was about 28 and Warren about 15. Today it’s Biden at 30.5 and Warren at 17.3. The differential favoring Biden has gone from about 13 a month ago to about 13 today. Damn, you’re correct, there really is quite the earth shattering trend for Warren…oh, never mind… » Posted By Jake321 On August 18, 2019 @ 6:50 pm How’s the weather in Moscow? » Posted By Jake321 On August 18, 2019 @ 2:47 am Well, at least you could find at least one thing you could make an argument about. In any case, until Warren can show she can consistently beat Biden in the average of the polls nationally and in the states whatever trend she has, if it is not fleeting, has little meaning. And until she can show in the average of the polls that she can beat Trump at least as decisively as Biden can she is a more risky candidate if our interest is in removing Trump. So until she can show she can win against Biden in her home state, gain significant non-White support and at least do as well against Trump as Biden in the swing states, she has a lower likelihood of beating Trump than Biden. And that’s what this is all about if you missed it. » Posted By Jake321 On August 18, 2019 @ 2:21 am Please do not misstate my position. I have said many times that I want to beat Trump, hopefully with someone who can do it decisively. As of now, the numbers indicate that would more likely be Biden than Warren. And trends are fleeting. Ask Harris about that. Anyway, your picking from individual polls and surveys you like is near meaningless statistically. That is usually called cherry picking, a big no-no in statistics. Now what do the more meaningful averages of the most recent major polls show as presented today by RCP. Biden beats Warren by a wide margin, 30.5 to 17.3. If you note the tends over the past month or so both Warren and Biden have increased but in the past couple of days Warren is falling while Biden is increasing. But these trends don’t have much statistical meaning anymore than cherry picked polls. As I mentioned, ask Harris about that. Recall the big story not long ago was that she was closing the gap with Biden after the first debate and if the trend continued she would be ahead of him soon. Well, in the real world her RCP average is now a whooping 8.0 compared to Biden’s 30.5. Also, as your own cherry picked polls themselves indicate, Biden is doing better than Warren. In fact, if you check the RCP averages and about any national and state polls or surveys you can find, Biden is ahead of Warren in the Primaries and does better than her against Trump. You tout one to boost Warren but fail to note what that Firehouse Strategies survey itself concludes: “For the Democrats, Joe Biden remains Trump’s toughest competition. In head-to-head contests, the former Vice President currently leads Trump in all three states, while Senator Elizabeth Warren and Mayor Pete Buttigieg don’t lead Trump in any.” Do note, if Trump takes just one of those Rust Belt States he very likely wins the Electoral College Vote And gets a second term. And in that Michigan Cherry you picked to tout Warren, she does beat him by 6 points but Unky Joe beats him by 13. At least in this case, 13 sounds like a much luckier number than 6. And the Bloomberg article you cite refers to the survey we talked about before. It is clearly an outlier in how close it has Warren to Biden. But it did indicate a real problem for Warren. She only gets 7% of Black support compared to Biden’s 38%. Oh, and it notes a FOX poll that found: “…Democrats said by a 24-point margin that it’s more important to have a candidate ‘who will restore the country and get American politics back to normalcy’ — the core of Biden’s pitch — over ‘a candidate who will fundamentally change the way things work in Washington,’ which is Warren’s message.” And then there is the fact that Dems most in the know about Warren in her home state of Massachusetts support Biden by almost two to one over her (RCP)…that’s among Dems in her Liberal, educated home state for God’s sake! But if Warren gets the nomination, I will absolutely support her over Trump. But will also check into the immigration requirements for New Zealand. » Posted By Jake321 On August 17, 2019 @ 6:39 pm But it seems he was talking to drunk Russians who didn’t get the sarcasm and immediately went to work to illegally get the emails. Or so the Mueller and Intel reports show. » Posted By Jake321 On August 17, 2019 @ 11:52 am Throw this in the hopper. Mass is different than the Rust Belt Swing States in that they on average are Whiter and way less educated in terms of percent college. In these terms Mass is the most educated state. So the Swing States have relatively more of just those voters who don’t particularly like Warren. But wait. She also doesn’t have Black support compared to Biden. As that survey cited by AdLib showed, Biden got 38% of Blacks and Warren got all of 7%. Looks like a combination which will make it way way more difficult for Warren to take the Swing States than Biden. Given that we need to get Trump out by taking just those states, as of now in comparison to Biden she is NOT » Posted By Jake321 On August 17, 2019 @ 11:47 am Yep. But it will hurt Israel and that is why virtually all Jewish groups oppose this. » Posted By Jake321 On August 15, 2019 @ 9:14 pm Don’t know yet. Just like having the most decisive front runner to beat Trump. » Posted By Jake321 On August 15, 2019 @ 9:13 pm Too early for me to have a sense of this kind of detailed approach. » Posted By Jake321 On August 15, 2019 @ 10:46 am Don’t know. But speaking of the Young Turks, Trump sure knows how to play the Dems like a fiddle. Getting Bibi to deny entry for the two Muslim Congresswomen is brilliant, regardless of the damage it is causing Israel. » Posted By Jake321 On August 15, 2019 @ 10:38 am Whatever it is, he’s no Trump and thus nowhere near as dangerous. » Posted By Jake321 On August 15, 2019 @ 9:22 amComments Posted By Jake321
the one.
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