Despite All His Troubles Trump is Still Likely to Win Reelection….here’s an example of a case that is being made…….

Whats at the Heart of the Trump/GOP Re-Election Script

  • Ignorance (the voters overall just don’t know very much about almost everything that matters),
  • Arrogance (and those folks believe that they know everything about everything that matters),
  • Anger (At Dems, Libs, Progressives, Clinton, Obama, Pelosi Schumer),
  • Anxiety (Immigrants, the Browning of America, Deep Statism)
  • Fear (See the previous list),
  • Constitutional Structural Problems (i.e. the Electoral College favors candidates like Trump and under-represents the overall population) and the Independent Executive (When the Executive is not Seated in the Legislative  an over-mighty Executive is readily enabled….not a balance of power at all but legislative gridlock and rule by decree)

It’s the Economy Stupid! Was. Is. Will Be.

  • President Donald Trump will win reelection easily in 2020 if the economy holds up, modeling by Moody’s Analytics shows.
  • “If voters were to vote primarily on the basis of their pocketbooks, the president would steamroll the competition,” the report states.
  • Three models show Trump getting at least 289 electoral votes and as many as 351, assuming average turnout.
  • The Moody’s models have been backtested to 1980 and were correct each time — except in 2016, when it indicated Clinton would get a narrow victory
  • Moody’s based its projections on how consumers feel about their own financial situation, the gains the stock market has achieved during Trump’s tenure and the prospects for unemployment, which has fallen to a 50-year low
  • Moody also takes into account patterns of voter turnout (i.e. which party has the best record in getting out ITS vote)
  • Moody also considers the level of funding that will flow to each campaign

The Core Dem Economic Argument is Not Resonating with….well, almost everybody

With three polls showing her in the lead, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) may soon eclipse former vice president Joe Biden as the front-runner for the Democratic presidential nomination. That’s great news for Republicans, because Warren has a problem: The central message of her campaign (and of several other candidates) is that the economy is working for the very wealthy but it is not working for ordinary Americans.

Unfortunately for her (and the Dems in general), ordinary Americans disagree.

  • Marist poll asked voters whether “the economy is working well for you personally.” Nearly two-thirds of Americans said yes.
  • This includes large majorities in almost every demographic group.
    • Sixty-seven percent of college graduates and 64 percent of those without a college education say the economy is working for them.
    • So do 68 percent of whites, and 61 percent of nonwhite people.
    • So do Americans of every generation: 63 percent of Generation Z and millennials; 69 percent of Generation X; 63 percent of baby boomers; and 69 percent of Greatest Generation and Silent Generation voters. S
    • So do supermajorities in every region in the country: 60 percent in the West, 65 percent in the Northeast, 67 percent in the Midwest, and 68 percent in the South. So do most voters in every type of American community: 63 percent of both big and small city voters; 64 percent of small-town voters; 66 percent of rural voters; and 72 percent of suburban voters.
    • Most everyone, it seems, says the economy is working for them.
  • The only groups that appear to agree with Warren, Marist found, are
    • Progressives (59 percent), Democratic women (55 percent) and those who are liberal or very liberal (55 percent).

So, when Warren declares that President Trump is “part of a corrupt, rigged system that has helped the wealthy and the well-connected and kicked dirt in the faces of everyone else,” it resonates with almost no one except those on the political left.

To win in 2020, Democrats need to win over voters who like Trump’s policies but don’t like Trump. They can’t do that by telling these voters they are wrong about the economy working for them, and that they need to make peace with what many see as leftist thinking.

Instead, they need to convince voters that they can dump Trump and still keep their prosperity.


  1. A Massive Democrat Turnout. Tsunamic in Nature.
  2. A Wide Spread Down Turn in the Economy. Inflation Up, Employment Increase, Pay Down.
  3. A Growing Sense of What the TRUTH Really Is and What the LIES Really Are.
  4. A General Increase in the Revulsion Reflex Where Trump is Concerned.

If That Happens then This Could Happen……

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Proud to be an Independent Progressive. I am a progressive- a one time Eisenhower Republican (from 1965 through 2004)who is now a Democrat. I live in a very RED STATE and am a community activist with a very BLUE AGENDA. I was a professor of history, and am now a researcher and gentleman farmer. My political positions are mixed - thus my preferred identification as a Progressive Independent. I am conservative on matters of military intervention, in regard to abortion, immigration, the public school system, gun rights, taxation, voter ID. But I am a traditional conservative, a Buckley, National Review, Eisenhower Republican..... I am a liberal on matters of health care care, funding education, taxation (yes one can be both liberal and conservative on this), civil rights, and alternative energy development/climate change.

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First off, I think it is wise to not take for granted that Democrats will beat Trump in 2020 just because current polls show a big advantage and Trump is being damaged by his crimes and the impeachment process.

However, I think Moody’s predictions are so narrow-minded and in-a-bubble, they are pretty irrelevant. They are trying to characterize Trump’s presidency as identical to previous ones which is a critical mistake for them as a starting point. There is no analogue for Trump, the economy’s performance does not override the intense feelings for and against Trump.

As many experts have already noted, Trump’s numbers are unnaturally low for a president presiding over such low unemployment and such positive views of the economy (though not as positive lately).

Why doesn’t Moody’s address that? Their predictions and the factors they take for granted are already a bust right now. Why don’t they address the Blue Wave in 2018 which saw a record Democratic win, in an election that was a referendum on Trump, despite all the positive economic factors that existed?

Because Moody’s is a financial entity that doesn’t understand the influence of social issues and, like most big players in the world of finance, have a hubris borne of their success that doesn’t allow them to see things as they are when it conflicts with their assumptions.

IMO, the biggest arguments against a likely Trump Victory in 2020 are.

1. The 2018 election, a referendum on Trump, was a huge Dem victory.
2. The public has turned more negative on Trump and the economy since 2018.
3. A growing percentage of voters who supported Trump have been leaving him.
4. Trump won in 2016 by 80,000 votes in Swing States where he now trails by big margins.
5. A strong majority of voters already claim they won’t vote for Trump.
6. The impeachment inquiry and trial is exposing his greed and criminality.
7. Americans typically prefer change in president elections (hence Trump).
8. Trump’s growing instability damages his image with independent voters he needs.
9. Trump’s base is static, around 40% his offensive actions to keep them limits any growth.
10. His failures on Syria/Kurds, NK, China, Obamacare, etc. destroy his “winning” rep.
11. Dems are now Govs in Rust Belt states Trump won, Repub election sabotage is limited.

This is not to say that Trump won’t remain a threat to win in 2020, with Russia and other foreign countries interfering in our elections, Repubs in states suppressing voters and manipulating outcomes in other ways and shameless propaganda flooding the country but the current polling shows Trump in big trouble and as impeachment continues, it can only bring him down more.

Also, if Dems nominate a candidate who energizes the Dem base, that enthusiasm can spread. Yes, Trump cultists will be rabid and anxious to vote but their numbers, even if slightly, have declined. And independent voters have been leaving Trump in droves.

Looking at demographics only, because there were many factors as to why Hillary lost in 2016, Hillary failed to get the turnout in black and youth voters that Obama generated in his elections in Rust Belt states and that was the only factual reason she didn’t win the Electoral College in 2016.

Whoever the Dem is, if they energize and GOTV of those already in their camp, who came out in 2008 and 2012, they will beat the Trump of 2020 and would even beat the more popular Trump in 2016,

It’s not a foregone conclusion, nothing should be taken for granted and all energy and hard work is required but IMO, it is more likely than not that Trump will be defeated in 2020.