Despite All His Troubles Trump is Still Likely to Win Reelection….here’s an example of a case that is being made…….
Whats at the Heart of the Trump/GOP Re-Election Script
- Ignorance (the voters overall just don’t know very much about almost everything that matters),
- Arrogance (and those folks believe that they know everything about everything that matters),
- Anger (At Dems, Libs, Progressives, Clinton, Obama, Pelosi Schumer),
- Anxiety (Immigrants, the Browning of America, Deep Statism)
- Fear (See the previous list),
- Constitutional Structural Problems (i.e. the Electoral College favors candidates like Trump and under-represents the overall population) and the Independent Executive (When the Executive is not Seated in the Legislative an over-mighty Executive is readily enabled….not a balance of power at all but legislative gridlock and rule by decree)
It’s the Economy Stupid! Was. Is. Will Be.
- President Donald Trump will win reelection easily in 2020 if the economy holds up, modeling by Moody’s Analytics shows.
- “If voters were to vote primarily on the basis of their pocketbooks, the president would steamroll the competition,” the report states.
- Three models show Trump getting at least 289 electoral votes and as many as 351, assuming average turnout.
- The Moody’s models have been backtested to 1980 and were correct each time — except in 2016, when it indicated Clinton would get a narrow victory
- Moody’s based its projections on how consumers feel about their own financial situation, the gains the stock market has achieved during Trump’s tenure and the prospects for unemployment, which has fallen to a 50-year low.
- Moody also takes into account patterns of voter turnout (i.e. which party has the best record in getting out ITS vote)
- Moody also considers the level of funding that will flow to each campaign
The Core Dem Economic Argument is Not Resonating with….well, almost everybody
With three polls showing her in the lead, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) may soon eclipse former vice president Joe Biden as the front-runner for the Democratic presidential nomination. That’s great news for Republicans, because Warren has a problem: The central message of her campaign (and of several other candidates) is that the economy is working for the very wealthy but it is not working for ordinary Americans.
Unfortunately for her (and the Dems in general), ordinary Americans disagree.
- A Marist poll asked voters whether “the economy is working well for you personally.” Nearly two-thirds of Americans said yes.
- This includes large
majorities in almost every demographic group.
- Sixty-seven percent of college graduates and 64 percent of those without a college education say the economy is working for them.
- So do 68 percent of whites, and 61 percent of nonwhite people.
- So do Americans of every generation: 63 percent of Generation Z and millennials; 69 percent of Generation X; 63 percent of baby boomers; and 69 percent of Greatest Generation and Silent Generation voters. S
- So do supermajorities in every region in the country: 60 percent in the West, 65 percent in the Northeast, 67 percent in the Midwest, and 68 percent in the South. So do most voters in every type of American community: 63 percent of both big and small city voters; 64 percent of small-town voters; 66 percent of rural voters; and 72 percent of suburban voters.
- Most everyone, it seems, says the economy is working for them.
- The only groups that
appear to agree with Warren, Marist found, are
- Progressives (59 percent), Democratic women (55 percent) and those who are liberal or very liberal (55 percent).
So, when Warren declares that President Trump is “part of a corrupt, rigged system that has helped the wealthy and the well-connected and kicked dirt in the faces of everyone else,” it resonates with almost no one except those on the political left.
To win in 2020, Democrats need to win over voters who like Trump’s policies but don’t like Trump. They can’t do that by telling these voters they are wrong about the economy working for them, and that they need to make peace with what many see as leftist thinking.
Instead, they need to convince voters that they can dump Trump and still keep their prosperity.
WHAT COULD CHANGE THE 2020 MAP?
- A Massive Democrat Turnout. Tsunamic in Nature.
- A Wide Spread Down Turn in the Economy. Inflation Up, Employment Increase, Pay Down.
- A Growing Sense of What the TRUTH Really Is and What the LIES Really Are.
- A General Increase in the Revulsion Reflex Where Trump is Concerned.
If That Happens then This Could Happen……
First off, I think it is wise to not take for granted that Democrats will beat Trump in 2020 just because current polls show a big advantage and Trump is being damaged by his crimes and the impeachment process.
However, I think Moody’s predictions are so narrow-minded and in-a-bubble, they are pretty irrelevant. They are trying to characterize Trump’s presidency as identical to previous ones which is a critical mistake for them as a starting point. There is no analogue for Trump, the economy’s performance does not override the intense feelings for and against Trump.
As many experts have already noted, Trump’s numbers are unnaturally low for a president presiding over such low unemployment and such positive views of the economy (though not as positive lately).
Why doesn’t Moody’s address that? Their predictions and the factors they take for granted are already a bust right now. Why don’t they address the Blue Wave in 2018 which saw a record Democratic win, in an election that was a referendum on Trump, despite all the positive economic factors that existed?
Because Moody’s is a financial entity that doesn’t understand the influence of social issues and, like most big players in the world of finance, have a hubris borne of their success that doesn’t allow them to see things as they are when it conflicts with their assumptions.
IMO, the biggest arguments against a likely Trump Victory in 2020 are.
1. The 2018 election, a referendum on Trump, was a huge Dem victory.
2. The public has turned more negative on Trump and the economy since 2018.
3. A growing percentage of voters who supported Trump have been leaving him.
4. Trump won in 2016 by 80,000 votes in Swing States where he now trails by big margins.
5. A strong majority of voters already claim they won’t vote for Trump.
6. The impeachment inquiry and trial is exposing his greed and criminality.
7. Americans typically prefer change in president elections (hence Trump).
8. Trump’s growing instability damages his image with independent voters he needs.
9. Trump’s base is static, around 40% his offensive actions to keep them limits any growth.
10. His failures on Syria/Kurds, NK, China, Obamacare, etc. destroy his “winning” rep.
11. Dems are now Govs in Rust Belt states Trump won, Repub election sabotage is limited.
This is not to say that Trump won’t remain a threat to win in 2020, with Russia and other foreign countries interfering in our elections, Repubs in states suppressing voters and manipulating outcomes in other ways and shameless propaganda flooding the country but the current polling shows Trump in big trouble and as impeachment continues, it can only bring him down more.
Also, if Dems nominate a candidate who energizes the Dem base, that enthusiasm can spread. Yes, Trump cultists will be rabid and anxious to vote but their numbers, even if slightly, have declined. And independent voters have been leaving Trump in droves.
Looking at demographics only, because there were many factors as to why Hillary lost in 2016, Hillary failed to get the turnout in black and youth voters that Obama generated in his elections in Rust Belt states and that was the only factual reason she didn’t win the Electoral College in 2016.
Whoever the Dem is, if they energize and GOTV of those already in their camp, who came out in 2008 and 2012, they will beat the Trump of 2020 and would even beat the more popular Trump in 2016,
It’s not a foregone conclusion, nothing should be taken for granted and all energy and hard work is required but IMO, it is more likely than not that Trump will be defeated in 2020.
As you say…it is unwise to presume a democratic victory….sadly it strikes me that not enough is being to done to really consider that reality….starting with a field of candidates who largely lean far more left than the majority of the democratic party (where 42 percent identify them selves as liberal, 51 percent identify themselves as centrists, and 5 percent actually say they are conservative).
You could well be right that Dems and the unaligned will take the “anyone but Trump” route even if they are not excited about the Dem offerings.
Polling shows movement in that direction..
Moody’s, for the sake of consistency, utilized the formula they have a applied for decades and the differences you are noting may be a balance to the “it’s the economy stupid” core argument…..but here in the heartland that argument is still winning the day for many. Trump’s lack of support, and the social issues popping may reset the stage.
In reply to your list…..
1. The 2018 election, a referendum on Trump, was a huge Dem victory.
– It was but House victories are won on a far narrowly stage than Senate races or the Presidency.
2. The public has turned more negative on Trump and the economy since 2018.
-But is it enough…..I am still not impressed that those who did not turn out in 16 are poised to do so in 20.
3. A growing percentage of voters who supported Trump have been leaving him.
-I keep reading that but the hard figures to back it up….seem soft….it could be a trend but he has defied the odds so many times before.
4. Trump won in 2016 by 80,000 votes in Swing States where he now trails by big margins.
-Again it depends on which Poll you are using but in general I agree he is trailing.
5. A strong majority of voters already claim they won’t vote for Trump.
-That is a figure I have not seen. Where did you get it.? That is one I would love to dig into.
6. The impeachment inquiry and trial is exposing his greed and criminality.
-For people like you and me (informed and pre-disposed to distrust him) but so many are simple not connected to public events, and then there are the True Believers who would follow him anywhere.
7. Americans typically prefer change in president elections (hence Trump).
-But not for the second term. Bush, Carter and Ford in recent history. Hoover, Taft, Harrison, VanBuren, Adams and Adams prior to that. 9 out of 45.
8. Trump’s growing instability damages his image with independent voters he needs.
– Let’s pray there are enough of them.
9. Trump’s base is static, around 40% his offensive actions to keep them limits any growth.
– Which is where he starts…and, let us hope, stops.
10. His failures on Syria/Kurds, NK, China, Obamacare, etc. destroy his “winning” rep.
-But he lies about all of it to his base…absolute, total, unadulterated lies. The true believers buy it all.
11. Dems are now Govs in Rust Belt states Trump won, Repub election sabotage is limited.
– That really is good news.
“This is not to say that Trump won’t remain a threat to win in 2020, with Russia and other foreign countries interfering in our elections, Repubs in states suppressing voters and manipulating outcomes in other ways and shameless propaganda flooding the country …” Well Said.
Here is what really concerns me…..”Also, if Dems nominate a candidate who energizes the Dem base, that enthusiasm can spread.” I do not see that yet.
Also true: “Looking at demographics only, because there were many factors as to why Hillary lost in 2016, Hillary failed to get the turnout in black and youth voters that Obama generated in his elections in Rust Belt states and that was the only factual reason she didn’t win the Electoral College in 2016.” Only Biden seems to have a dedicated black base….youth seem to be drawn to Bernie (who really can be painted as a socialist)
“Whoever the Dem is, if they energize and GOTV of those already in their camp, who came out in 2008 and 2012, they will beat the Trump of 2020 and would even beat the more popular Trump in 2016,” I agree. Lots of factors at work here.
Murph, as has been proven despite the false memes, polls in 2016 were pretty accurate. Polls in 2018 proved accurate, predicting a Blue Wave. So polls that have been consistent in swing states showing Trump losing to most of the top Dem candidates are worthwhile to be trusted as well.
I appreciate your concern and doubts on some of my points but I would assure you that there are polls and data to back them all up. For example, when it comes to a majority of Americans saying they won’t vote for Trump:
More than half of Americans approve of Trump on the economy. More than half also say they won’t vote for him.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/07/22/more-than-half-americans-approve-trump-economy-more-than-half-also-say-they-wont-vote-him/
I know you’re swamped in MO by Trump supporters so they may seem like a majority as they truly are there but they are a fractional minority in many states Trump won. If that 38% or so of Americans are blind faith, cult followers of Trump, nothing will persuade them but some of them can be discouraged by losing their farms, their healthcare, their safe environment and seeing publicly the impeachment hearings exposing Trump’s criminality. They may never drop their support of him but they may become less enthusiastic about going out to vote for him.
Even if they don’t, Trump loses.
To recognize why Trump is likely going to lose by a big margin, think about how he ran in 2016 and how he attracted voters he needed to win.
In 2016, Trump ran as the outsider who would drain the swamp, build the wall that México would pay for and help the regular people government has forgotten.
He is no longer an outsider, he is at the heart of the cancer in our government now. Mexico isn’t paying for his wall and the protection that suckers in the 2016 election thought it represented has been exposed as worthless. Trump and his tax cut for the wealthy, tariffs and increased economic injustice has hurt the “forgotten people” more than they had been.
And as an outsider and NOT part of the government that people were distrustful of, many voters who were looking for a change and someone who would shake up DC in a good way chose Trump. For some, it was a symbolic vote, a way at throwing a political Molotov cocktail at the status quo.
But now Trump IS the status quo. He is proven to be a criminal. He is a swamp all to himself. He isn’t a representative of change now, a vote for him would mean keeping the intensifying division, hatred and racism in the country. Tearing down our democracy to have an autocracy. Continuing the thousands of lies, deceptions and lack of transparency voters opposed.
He barely won despite losing the popular vote by almost 3 million. By only 80k votes in three states where the top Dems have led Trump in big margins for many months.
Where does he get the votes from to build on his 39% base? The motivations for millions of his voters are gone now. Far more than 80k in those states.
Many of your comments express a sensible concern that Trunp could still win despite not being able any longer to attract enough voters to even win the Electoral College.
But numbers and logic paint a pretty clear picture and even Trump’s desperation of blackmailing Ukraine and bowing to Russia for help overturning the likely results of his losing on 2020, attest to Trump’s genuine belief that he will lose.
If even Trump thinks he would lose without the election being rigged, I think that says a lot about that likelihood.