Big picture thinking.
Americans aren’t well known for it. China has a
In 2008, Barack Obama was elected president. It was a historic presidency that offered big change. Despite all the odds, he delivered one massive change in the form of the ACA and how did voters respond? In 2010, did they say, “I’m not sure if it will be good for me but I wanted
Short term thinkers are more vulnerable to propaganda and fear mongering than long term thinkers.
So let’s try this again in 2019. We have a Democratic primary under way. As has been the case historically, the candidate who has had the highest name recognition and the longest and most visible career in Democratic politics, representing an unchallenging moderate view and closely tied to the establishment leaders of the Democratic Party, begins with the lead (at least we don’t have Superdelegates tipping the primary from the start this time).
As a few months have gone by now, that initial lead and poll numbers have shrunken for Biden and more effective campaigners have risen. The response by the establishment Dems is consistent with the past, they try to prop up their weakening candidate with the same variety of “electability”, “most qualified”, “safe” and “continuation of a past favorable presidency” tropes.
As I’ve documented previously, for the past 35 years, the Democrats have lost every time they have nominated an establishment, moderate Democrat for the presidency. Only the establishment outsiders, Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton
Again, in the past 9 presidential elections, Democrats have lost every time they have run an establishment, moderate Democrat (hence, Trump). So that alone would seem to be a good argument to vote for a more outsider, inspiring candidate than Biden.
Another major argument by the establishment/moderate Dems is that in order to win in 2020, the Dem nominee NEEDS to win back Trump voters. That is simply not true.
Rachel Bitecofer, a political scientist who accurately predicted the 40 seat pickup in The House by Democrats in our last election in 2018, explains that the Blue Wave, record win in 2018 and takeovers of Republican districts by Democrats was brought about not by Republican voters crossing over but by the enthusiasm and voter increases in college-educated women, Latinos, African Americans, and Millennials…otherwise known as the Democratic base. It wasn’t white
It was enthusiastic Democrats turning out in bigger numbers who took over Republican districts and brought about a takeover of The House and a record win nationally. In the video below, Ms. Bitecofer explains turnout in 2018 and projections for 2020:
Ms. Bitecofer predicts a Democratic win of the White House in 2020 based on that same type of turnout, driven by what she refers to as “negative partisanship”, voters
While it would seem to make the most sense that the best Democratic candidate for the presidency would be the one most able to better excite the base and those voters most prone to really want to vote Trump out, which would not be a Trump-voter seeking Biden, whoever the nominee is has a probability of winning.
That means that we can take the bogus “electability” issue off the table and hand it back to the establishment Dems for their cynical use in the next election.
So if the eventual Dem nominee is likely to win in 2020 (likely doesn’t mean definitely so no one should take it for granted, we all have to work hard and drive the vote as strongly as we can to win the WH and The Senate and House), maybe we can try this time to look at the big picture.
Just consider 4 years in the future, that’s all.
Let’s say Joe Biden becomes the Dem nominee and wins the presidency. He is representing that he is not intending to make big changes if he is elected, he has repeatedly expressed that he wants to make incremental changes to the country.
In this election, Biden’s main argument for electing him is that Trump is in the White House, it is urgent to get him out and Biden is best positioned to do that. Okay, but in 2024, Trump will not (betting on the odds) be in the White House. This one reason for electing Biden, his raison d’etre for becoming president, would be non-existent in 2024.
He would have to run on his record, one of incremental change and rolling back the awful policies of Trump. If Biden succeeded in just restoring the U.S. closely to where it was before Trump with a few smaller improvements, would that be enough to really excite the base? It would be a relief but exciting enough to drive big turnout?
Would voters who may be left still wanting big changes and seeing that there haven’t been any in 4 years, be disappointed and discouraged or be enthusiastic to fight energetically for another 4 years of Biden? “Yes we can, eventually and incrementally, just be patient” is not a great campaign slogan for 2024.
Meanwhile, age is a big deal. In 2024, Joe Biden will be 81 years old. Nominating and electing a
How would an
In 2020 and especially in 2024, Democrats will need an incumbent president who can really rally and energize Dems and independent voters to re-elect him/her against the momentum that will favor Republicans. A candidate with vision who wants to accomplish big things, if they succeed to one degree or another, would have a greater advantage in 2024 when running on their record.
Who Democrats nominate in 2020 will also determine who they will run for the presidency in 2024, it’s a two-for-one, that’s the big picture. Democrats should consider, do they want a nominee with the best potential for holding the White House for 4 years or 8 years?