We’re now just three weeks away from the Iowa Caucuses and just over four weeks away from the New Hampshire primary and at this point, the polls show it’s possible for Donald Trump to win at least one of the two if not both. This could propel him to winning the GOP nomination. Many Democrats (and late night comedy show hosts) have been rooting for Trump to win the GOP nomination for President, seeing how his candidacy has been poisoning the GOP brand and tearing the party apart.
But some are now worrying that they should have been more careful about what they wished for. What if Trump becomes the nominee and is one election away from becoming President of the United States?! What if he beats Hillary or Bernie? Has my wish doomed our country? And why didn’t my wish to win the Powerball come true instead, damn it?!
All valid questions and concerns and if one went purely on what one sees in the MSM, one might feel that they had great reason for such worries. But the inevitable failure of a Trump candidacy in a General Election is far more obvious than the news stations that profit from promoting Trump would ever reveal. There is one very important number that makes it impossible for Donald Trump to win the Presidency.
And ironically, it is 47%.
No, it’s not Mitt Romney’s 47% but it’s just as destructive to Trump’s hopes. In fact, the irony is that due to that 47%, Donald Trump has built a wall around the White House that he will pay for…big time…with a massive loss if he’s the GOP nominee.
And what is that 47% that denies the possibility of a President Trump ever occurring?
A percentage of Latino voters. The approximate percentage of Latino votes that a Republican candidate would need in 2016 to win the electoral votes necessary to become President. That’s right, Donald “Mexicans are rapists, drug dealers and criminals” Trump just ain’t looking too favorable to Latinos for some reason.
According to the latest national poll on Trump’s support among Latinos, 67% of Latinos have a very or somewhat negative view of him, only 17% had a somewhat or very positive view of him.
17%. And he would need 47% to win in a General Election. Ain’t gonna happen. Trump needs his Latino-hating GOP base, he can’t pull a 180 degree spin without losing them. So he can’t change his anti-Latino positions.
Here’s a very simple scenario as to how quickly Trump would lose in a General Election.
- Whoever the Democratic nominee is can pretty much count on starting with getting around 249 electoral votes from Democratic and Democratic leaning states.
- Florida has 29 electoral votes.
- Trump would need at least 40% of the Latino vote in FL to win.
- 249 + 29 > 270 (electoral votes needed to win the Presidency)
- The Democrat wins the Presidency.
And that doesn’t count most other swing states that could push the Dem nominee over the top.
Though national polling of head to head contests with Trump and Hillary or Bernie may show it’s a closer race, Presidential elections are not about national numbers, they are about winning states (and general election polling this far out isn’t very accurate anyway). And in swing states with meaningful percentages of Latino voters, losing hugely in the Latino community likely will mean the difference between losing and winning that states’ electoral votes.
And add to that all of the moderate Republicans who may not vote at all or vote for the Dem if Trump is their party’s choice as well as the majorities of blacks, women, Asians, Muslims, etc. who Trump’s attacked that will be voting against him.
While the MSM will continue ignoring this unavoidable truth to keep alive the ratings bonanza that a possible Trump presidency is bringing them, those who have rooted for Trump to win (and in the process, destroy the GOP) shouldn’t be their own buzzkill. Grab a bag of peanuts and a cotton candy and enjoy the Trump circus, knowing that it will close out of town next year.