I am working for a Democratic State Senatorial Candidate running against a GOP incumbent….and it looks like the incumbent will slide to an easy win despite the fact that he is opposed to what most of his constituents want and need. I am working for the Democrat, not because I expect him to win, but because I want him to present a real contrast with the GOP incumbent. I want to be able to point out to my neighbors that these are their choices to send a clear message: You get what you vote for and if you vote GOP you are not getting what you want and need.
I live in a rural area. A poor rural area, 23 percent living in poverty. A lot of the folks I know are hard working and barely making it. Many of them combine work as small farmers with on-the-side minimum wage jobs.
A good number have health insurance for the first time in their adult lives thanks to ACA. Many more are hoping to see Medicaid expanded since you have to earn 15 percent of Federal Poverty Guideline as it now stands to qualify.
As a group-
- They depend on social programs to assist them with basic needs: food, and utilities.
- They count on the assistance that comes from Federal programs that provide limited crop subsidies, guarantee crop insurance, and assist with conservation projects.
- They need for their local schools to provide the kind of education that will prepare their kids for the future.
How does the Republican respond to these needs:
- The Republican is an ardent supporter of the so called Health Care Compact which promises to support the complete repeal of the Affordable Care Act and, failing that, to make sure that Missouri does not extend Medicaid to the working poor.
- The Republican has taken the No New Taxes Pledge and supports the Tax Reduction Initiative which keeps passing bills cutting taxes to the top 25 percent of wage earners because they are the job makers.
- The Republican is one of the strongest critics of “wasteful spending” in public schools especially in regards to teacher salaries. He also wants the schools to emphasize values based education by which he means that he opposes sex education, and supports teaching “biblical science.”
- The Republican is opposed to the concept of a minimum wage saying that the market, profits and losses in business, competition should drive all wage levels.
- The Republican opposes the Farm Bill (which funds Food Stamps, provides crop insurance guarantees, supports conservation).
And the Democrat? A well spoken, local business person who is running “because someone should” running his campaign on a shoe string budget and is clear that every position held by the GOP incumbent is one he opposes.
Best guess right now….the GOP incumbent will win by 20 or more percentage points. Why? Voter turnout will be very low, lowest in the poorest areas in the district. The churches, which are very important here, are clearly for the party of “christian values”, and every democrat wears “that black guy in the White House” around their necks.