• AdLib : Night Murph!

  • MurphTheSurf3 : I suspect you may be correct. Well, good night.

  • AdLib : Murph – Good point about Crimea but the statistics I saw about the ethnic makeup didn’t jibe with the 90% or more pro-Russia vote. I do agree that there is a large Russian population there that has always related to Russia over the rest of Ukraine. But I could imagine some uprisings there by non-Russians once the expense of running Crimea isn’t fully paid by Russia.

  • MurphTheSurf3 : And wishing you a great Easter weekend as well.

  • MurphTheSurf3 : The thing about the Crimea that makes it very different is that it was almost completely resettled by Stalin with Russians after removing the Cossack and Roman populations. It was ceded to Ukraine by Kruschev in an effort to share the cost of that very expensive peninsula and to further integrate Ukraine into the USSR. Since then the flow of Russians into and out of the area has been constant.

  • AdLib : And you have a great Easter weekend, Murph!

  • AdLib : glenn posted a comment a day or so ago. Very pleased to hear the good news about Bourne! I know it’s going to be tough but this is real progress! Please say hi to her for me and giver her my best.

  • MurphTheSurf3 : Well it is nearly midnight Very lively discussion. I asked about Glenn for Georgia…heard anything from her? Pat (Bourne) goes home on Sunday…Easter Sunday…I hope things work for her…..hard road ahead.

  • AdLib : Murph – Only the orchestrated uprisings of Putin’s thugs. I think that Crimea was also misrepresented that way, the “vote” there was so obviously rigged and Russians were masquerading there as locals just as they continue to in eastern Ukraine. Putin is slowly discovering he has painted himself into a corner but like many tyrants, he thinks he can wriggle out of it. Ask Mubarak and Gaddafi how that worked out.

  • MurphTheSurf3 : Ad I expect that Putin will try to do as you say in the East but my reading is showing that the sentiment there is not the same as it was in Crimea….an area very used to dependency that has long harbored a “return” to mother Russia culture…Note the lack of huge public demonstrations in the East….where are the uprisings?

  • AdLib : And there is no necessity for the US to try to “reset” relations with Russia until Putin is long gone, things should justifiably stay as distant as they are until then.

  • AdLib : I do hope that is the direction things will move. An acceleration into renewable energy and importing oil and gas from elsewhere would seem to be a very smart course for the EU. Being dependent on Russia for fuel now shows how dangerous it is to their sovereignty.

  • MurphTheSurf3 : The other thing that will happen is that W. Europe will work its way off of dependency on Russian petrochemicals; a rebuilding of the Ukraine economy as a whole with a strong Western presence growing; expect to see the U.S. return to space flight at an expedited pace and for relationships with Putin to remain very cold.

  • AdLib : Murph – Very logical and thoughtful projection. The question in my mind though is, since Putin is still pulling strings in Eastern Ukraine, might he just not stand by any deal that he publicly claims to support and keep trying to disintegrate Ukraine rule in the east then claim what he did in Crimea, “I didn’t do anything, it was the people of Ukraine that begged us to annex them.”

  • MurphTheSurf3 : Ad…I think that there will be some face saving negotiations that will result in guarantees of protection of and respect for Russia peoples in E. Ukraine, a public acceptance of the Crimea as part of Russia by Ukraine, a guarantee that Ukraine will not join NATO (but no mention of the EU), and the Russians will pull back.

  • AdLib : Murph – It would seem so obvious that his annexing Crimea would destroy the entire facade he’s been building up, to be a respected world power. But in his bubble, he believed and still does that the rest of the world can be deceived as easily as many of his people so he can have his cake and eat it too. As we know, that is physically impossible.

  • AdLib : Murph – What do you think will happen in Ukraine?

  • MurphTheSurf3 : Another insight from the AJA program…common agreement…Puti n has completely ruined his reputation and it is unredeemable – he will never be trusted or respected again in European or UN circles. He has broken too many rules to ever win his way back.

  • AdLib : Take care, ppo and have a wonderful Easter weekend!

  • AdLib : Murph – Agreed, Crimea will be an anchor on Russia’s failing economy and in the end, Putin will bring about his own undoing. It will take a little while though. Wouldn’t it be amusing if Putin tries to negotiate with Ukraine to help them with Crimea?

  • MurphTheSurf3 : PPO….Good night and happy Easter to you as well. The very best.

  • MurphTheSurf3 : Pink..I agree- Russia is very strong in a conventional sense but not against multiple forces, and certainly not against popular insurgence.

  • pinkpantheroz : Well, that’s it for me tonight. A Very Happy and Holy Easter to you if you celebrate it. cheers for this week.

  • pinkpantheroz : Ad and Murph, I think POTUS’ influence on the EU, NATO and europe to continue negotiations and sanctions is the best way to get Putin to pull his horns in.

  • AdLib : Murph – And we do have to proceed with caution, we backed Islamic people who opposed the USSR in Afghanistan and they became Al Qaeda and the Taliban.

  • MurphTheSurf3 : Ad- Russia certainly has the most potent conventional force, but the cost of utilizing it is huge, and how many fronts can it handle at one time. Add in the costs that Crimea, which is an economic basket case, will heap on Russia and its own internal weaknesses…thi s will prove to be Putin’s undoing.

  • AdLib : Murph – I’m all for republics in the region banding together, just saying that even if they all came together, they couldn’t match Russia’s military force. But not saying they would need to in order to leverage against Russia.

  • pinkpantheroz : Good point Murph. That little barney is by no means over, and Putin hasn’t been able to fully cower them. So maybe that’s a better indicator than the Afghanistan conflict as to how the Russian Army is nowadays.

  • AdLib : PPO – Russia isn’t a rival to the US anymore but it has the biggest and best armed military by far among its neighbors. None of them could rival Russia. So, they are the neighborhood bully.

  • MurphTheSurf3 : Ad..the Islamic alliance creates another source of dissolution and provides the ground for increased (and exportable) militancy. Think Chechnya is a settled issue…..?

  • pinkpantheroz : Ad, Russia is no longer the military juggernaut it once was, because it has lost its satellite republics it could once count on. so it may be a case of smoke and mirrors for domestic consumption, but he’s still dangerous.

  • AdLib : Murph – You mean that Obama won’t be painting pictures of himself in the bathtub? Doesn’t sound post-Presidentia l to me.

  • MurphTheSurf3 : Ad…and Obama, like Clinton, will be an active former President…..po werful…..

  • AdLib : Murph – Very interesting but those republics still wouldn’t have the military or equipment to fight off a Russian invasion. This isn’t a situation that can be resolved militarily because Russia is too strong for its neighbors but Russia has a soft underbelly in its economy. That’s what’s gotten Putin to at least pose as if he will stop annexing parts of Ukraine.

  • MurphTheSurf3 : Ad In the same show they said the Obama has decided not to be a lame duck…by not tying his fortune to the midterms…that challenge he is putting to the Dems….in doing so he is redefining the nature of the “lame duck” period claiming that he can be an activist right to the end.

  • AdLib : Like we were talking about earlier, even alleged Dems like Brian Schweitzer weave lies about Obama not being capable or accomplishing anything so it’s not surprising that he’s not recognized in his own time for his many accomplishments. History however will hold Obama in very high regard and once his last term is over, many will look back to the days of his Presidency very nostalgically.

  • pinkpantheroz : Here’s an idea, Let’s invite all the militias to join an exercise. Then send them to Eastern Ukraine.

  • MurphTheSurf3 : Ad…I am also reading things about efforts among the Islamic Republics to organize an anti-imperialist (read, anti Russian) mutual defense pact….A Muslim NATO?

  • pinkpantheroz : Yes, Ad. BBC World, AlJazeera, Japans NBN(?) and many european media outles are of far more value that their US counterparts. The dumbing down is working well for the 1%.