I took this picture at the "Ask Mitt Anyt...

Lately, there’s been plenty of talk on how President Obama can win reelection next year. Pundits wonder about how he can escape the same geographic dilemma that did in Al Gore’s and John Kerry’s respective campaigns. What most don’t seem to understand is that the answer is staring them right in the face.

Allow me to explain.

“The Map” has fundamentally changed since 2004. States like Virginia and Colorado, where past Democratic candidates had not seriously competed before, are looking good so far for Obama. And states like Oregon and New Mexico, which caused plenty of heartburn for Gore and Kerry, should not be a problem for Obama in 2012.

And in our own fine state of Nevada, the DC media crowd can’t see the real ground game in action. OFA is working around the clock to lock in the base… And then expand it. Yet as I looked at the other side, I could not find one example of any GOP field operation. And I know I’m not the only one here who sees this.

The one factor keeping GOP hopes alive is Mitt Romney, but I suspect even this will prove to be a mirage for them. He still can’t catch President Obama nationally, and I wholeheartedly believe he’s weaker than most media pundits think. Remember, he SUPPORTS continuing the home foreclosure crisis, he continues to deploy logical pretzel twists to explain his record on health care, he flip-flops regularly on more than just health care (just look at his record on LGBTQ equality), and he simply cares nothing about middle class families.


So what’s the result?

This is what I call the “worst case scenario” against Romney.

2012 Presidential Election: Electoral Map: This map displays the projections of the sender and does not reflect the opinions of 270toWin.

This is what I sense is likely against Romney at this point.

2012 Presidential Election: Electoral Map: This map displays the projections of the sender and does not reflect the opinions of 270toWin.

And this is what I see possible against an imploding Romney campaign or any of the other GOP contenders.

2012 Presidential Election: Electoral Map: This map displays the projections of the sender and does not reflect the opinions of 270toWin.

Not only am I increasingly confident that most Americans can see through the G-O-TEA BS, but I also sense that changing demographics is the ticking time bomb that’s now causing real trouble for Republicans. Their xenophobia, homophobia, and “working class phobia” are just totally out of touch with an America that’s becoming more diverse and less enamored with “class warfare” by the 1% against the 99%. I strongly sense that’s Obama’s ultimate Ace in the hold against the G-O-TEA in 2012. Considering the growing Latino population here in Nevada, as well as Colorado and Arizona, and considering the extreme G-O-TEA war on workers in Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Florida, I don’t think any of these states should be considered a “slam dunk” for the Republicans. And considering the Republicans’ weaknesses in so many swing states, the President looks anything but “DOOMED!!!”

Perhaps 2012 won’t be the easiest election for progressives, but it’s also far from a losing proposition.

(For more insight and analysis on the upcoming election without the usual stupid punditry, why not check out Nevada Progressive?)

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The most important thing we can do right now is something we are already doing: an intense focus on the message coming from each candidate. When the wrong guy gets elected is when the people don’t care enough to actively vote against him. So that’s good.
I still have a pet peeve against the electoral college. Is it still working for us, or should it be abolished as I believe it should? It definitely betrayed us in 2000 when it went against the votes of the American people and picked the less popular man for president (not to mention the Florida debacle).


Atdnext wrote:
“I’m quite fiercely progressive, but I also have a pragmatic side. I guess that’s why I’m a Democrat. ;-)”

Along with your post and this statement, I have to say I like the way you think. So many seem afraid to predict a win for President Obama and Democrats. We must keep the White House and Senate and take the House for us to get anything done.



How did you come to those conclusions on the maps? Was it supposition on your part deciding each state, blue or red?