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MurphTheSurf3 On December - 8 - 2011

Will he be stopped? If it were Christmas Day, I’d say it would be tough to do. But it is December 7th and I’ll be very, very surprised if Gingrich’s numbers hold up until January 3.

Why? There is just so much trouble that can rain down on his head in very fast order.

The only Speaker of the House to be driven from his Speakership and his Seat in the House because of a combination of ethics violations, ineffective leadership, and general obnoxiousness, he became a money making enterprise whose only real product was influence through his association with those in government.

In that capacity, he has sold awards from his so-called leadership foundation to many persons, groups and businesses including strip clubs (and then hastily withdrawn them when the progressive press did a little digging). He took donations for a book reading incentive program and used 80 percent of the money to pay three cronies. He earned a small fortune as a “historian” charged with making Fannie and Freddie too good to believe. There is a lot of this with Gingrich.

Gingrich is very vulnerable on matters of policy. Focus on Gingrich’s past policy statements in support of cap-and-trade, the need for a federal health insurance mandate, proposals to legalize medical marijuana, support of what he called the model GSE’s Freddie and Fannie, his strong defense of climate change as established science etc. and you know he stands on a foundation made of sand. Gingrich has made a career of saying whatever those who pay him want him to say.

Now consider what is supposed to be one of his greatest strengths but what is actually his Debate Achilles Heel. Have you seen the clip where Gingrich promised that if Obama didn’t agree to a series of three hour Lincoln Douglass debates, Gingrich would follow Obama around the country giving intellectual deconstructions of whatever Obama had just said in a given city? Gingrich is doing something really dangerous here by raising already inflated expectations about his skill as a debate performer.

What many conservatives believe has been his performance in debates has produced the sense that Gingrich would kill Obama in a debate. But if you’ve seen Gingrich debate with a prepared opponent from the left-of-center his performance pales. I once saw Gingrich take on Ralph Nader….and get killed. He does not do well in formal interviews with journalists and avoids them. Conservatives have seen Gingrich tell off debate moderators and are fantasizing about Gingrich reducing Obama to a puddle by telling Obama to his face that he is a socialist, secularist, bureaucratic, Kenyan, statist, reactionary, blah, blah, blah.

But several factors have gone into Gingrich’s so-called strong debate performances which point to his inherent weakness.

First is that he has a very good sense of what conservative narratives resonate with on the national level (though as the Ryan “right-wing social engineering” thing showed, this sense isn’t flawless.) As a result he is great at doing what he as been paid to do for many years, telling them what they want to hear.

Second, he has smartly picked his fights with the debate moderators,the easily targeted main stream media, and the absent President Obama rather than his fellow Republican candidates.

Third, the other candidates have mostly left him alone to do his Gingrich thing assuming he was a non-player. The incentive is now there for Bachmann, Perry, Paul and Santorum to go at Gingrich hard and from all kinds of directions at the Republican debates that are going to happen in the next couple of weeks. Gingrich is the key to a potentially far right big bump for one of the also-rans.

So, the next two debates pose several kinds of risks for Gingrich.

The first
is that the other candidates will publicize his record as a pro-federal health insurance mandate, pro-amnesty, pro-cap-and-trade, paid shill for Freddie Mac working as a crony capitalist, flip-flop artist. The charges are bad enough, but it is worse that these charges are true.

The second is that there is a substantial portion of Gingrich supporters who know most of this and look past it because they think the Republicans need a Gingrich-type slugger as their nominee to defeat Obama in the general election. They don’t support him because they think he is a good guy. They support him because they think he is rough, tough, wickedly smart, and an invincible debater. BUT, if Gingrich gets bruised by all the attacks that will come in the next couple of debates, he won’t just look like a pro-federal health insurance mandate, pro-amnesty, pro-cap-and-trade, paid shill for Freddie Mac working as a crony capitalist, flip-flop artist. He will also look like an overrated, washed up loser posing as a bully.

And he has other problems.

A penchant for divisive language. Newt, as a rhetorical device, will use the most divisive possible language to describe his position vs. his opponent’s position. He’ll then use that to bring you to his side. That’s the kind of thing he does when the adrenaline’s flowing….and he is not considering the damage he is doing…to himself. It is a great way to make a news splash and to make lots of enemies. Often unnecessarily so.

Too many ideas at once.
He really is a man with lots of ideas. The problem is, if you get thirty ideas a day, some of them won’t be benign, some of them will contradict ideas from yesterday or the day before and some of them will be badly conceived from start to finish. He has few intellectual brakes or filters. He has no advisers, counselors, or confidantes.

No base of support in the House GOP remains. His base of support over the years have been the House Republicans. But the influence he peddled for years had waned. Many of his old colleagues in the House were no longer there, and many of those who are remember him negatively. In recent years his “Solutions” network has grown less and less important as his ersatz influence has been exposed. And now a number of them are speaking aloud their disdain for him and their fear of his candidacy, or worse, his presidency.

At the root of it all, Gingrich’s greatest weakness is a megalomania that is truly epic. From this narcissist’s point of view, the public has no choice: God has given him superhuman powers to use for their good whether they like it or not.

If Gingrich were a stock, I’d say sell high, which means sell soon.

Written by MurphTheSurf3

Proud to be an Independent Progressive. I am a progressive- a one time Eisenhower Republican who is now a Democrat. I live in a very RED STATE and am a community activist with a very BLUE AGENDA. Historian, and "Gentleman Farmer."

95 Responses so far.

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  1. bito says:

    Can Newt win the primary without out the GOP establishment behind him? They do hold the purse stings and is he ‘Rove enough’, ‘Koch enough’? Or does it even matter to him?

    Peggy Noonan alludes that the people that who know him, don’t trust or like him--unstable. People that only know him from afar like him and only see his bulldog attitude-the rest doesn’t matter.

    Will Rove start one of his infamous whispering campaigns and stay with Mitt?

    Gingrich Is Inspiring—and Disturbing
    The first potential president about whom there is too much information.

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203413304577086824255350642.html?mod=opinion_newsreel

    Those who know him fear—or hope—that he will be true to form in one respect: He will continue to lose to his No. 1 longtime foe, Newt Gingrich. He is a human hand grenade who walks around with his hand on the pin, saying, “Watch this!”

    What they fear is that he will show just enough discipline over the next few months, just enough focus, to win the nomination. And then, in the fall of 2012, once party leaders have come around and the GOP is fully behind him, he will begin baying at the moon. He will start saying wild things and promising that he may bomb Iran but he may send a special SEAL team in at night to secretly dig Iran up, and fly it to Detroit, where we can keep it under guard, and Detroiters can all get jobs as guards, “solving two problems at once.” They’re afraid he’ll start saying, “John Paul was great, but most of that happened after I explained the Gospels to him,” and “Sure, Daniel Kahneman won the Nobel Prize, but only after I explained how people can think fast, slow and at warp speed. He owes me everything.”

    • MurphTheSurf3 says:

      Bito….We are on the same page in this. Today important GOP organizers/managers began to say aloud what many were already thinking and speaking in whispers: With Mitt there may be no coattails to carry the GOP into more seats in the House and Senate, but he will do little harm…Newt will yank the rug out from under us.

    • AdLib says:

      I mentioned below, I think that being attacked by the GOP Establishment which is despised by the core GOP voters, namely Baggers, only improves Newt’s attraction to the Baggers.

      The GOP primary will be decided by the Tea Party. They disdain the very people who are attacking Newt. They and Newt are now being pushed together even more and Newt is looking more sympathetic, as the lone gunslinger being ambushed by the bad guys.

      I doubt Baggers will begin now looking at substance, they just look at things simplistically so the specific charges against Newt will likely be ignored.

      All they will see is the bomb thrower they want representing him, being piled on by those they feel have betrayed them.

      Again, this is total speculation on my part but I would lean towards Newt’s lead being solidified the more he’s attacked then being destroyed.

    • The baggers hate the establishment GOP as much as the media so I think this only helps Gingrich with his base.

      So far the base is laughing off Romney going negative and actually they should. So far Romney has criticized Newt for being against the GHWB tax increases and being supporting the individual mandate. The base obviously hates tax increases and on the mandate Romney is a total hypocrite.

      Newt is their guy unless something major happens. Actually I looked at the numbers from 2007-2008 and Romney is tanking over a month earlier this time. His decline has been the only steady trend in the GOP race.

      • bito says:

        I agree with most of that KQ and the polls are supporting you, but without any organization and a much smaller bankroll, will Newt be able to GOTV/rides to the polls…. and combat a serious attack against him from the establishment GOP and some in the RR? I just don’t know. I’m a bit old school and when I used to work on campaigns it took more than polls, it took money and organization and him not having either it would be an anomaly for him to pull of a convincing win in the primary.
        I’m no help at all, I have more questions than answers. :-)

        • I agree Romney’s money and organization helps. I just think the attacks by what they call the lame stream media and big government establishment Republicans won’t.

          I also think Romney’s attacks so far are laughable and have already backfired to some extent.

          • SallyT says:

            KQ, I certainly don’t think Romney is helping himself any. He should just keep with the money Newt made from Fannie May and the other stuff he has been on the take with while not in office. You can attack Newt’s character with his being thrown out as Speaker of the House. FlipFopping is one of the dumbest thing he could throw at Newt. He will get the same and more in that particular area from Newt at him.

    • SueInCa says:

      Bito
      I think that is his goal exactly. One thing he will not be able to handle w/o blowing up is Obama’s chuckle when someone has said something that is preposterous. His evil twin will appear and he will blow it. I think that chuckle really got to McCain.

  2. Nirek says:

    I like to learn from history. Newt is one big hypocrite. Remember when he was pushing to impeach Clinton for his indiscretions while he was having an affair with one of his staffers. (now his third wife)
    To me that is as hypocritical as you can get. I prefer NOT to have a hypocrite as my President.

  3. escribacat says:

    Love love love that picture. These people are all pretty arrogant but Newtie really is in love with himself, or as Maureen Dowd said, “Newt Gingrich’s mind is in love with itself.” It’s probably been posted by someone here but Celere gave me this link:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/04/opinion/sunday/dowd-out-of-africa-and-into-iowa.html

    • MurphTheSurf3 says:

      Escribacat…..me too. I guffawed when I saw it. Had to find a place to put it and wrote the article to match. I have copied and archived the Dowd Article.

      Her closing line speaks to a deep, and horrifying, truth about Newt:
      “He’s Belgium. The poor are Congo.”

      Who Newt Represented in Congress: Georgia’s 6th Congressional District is the most affluent and educated district in the state, as 51% of residents in the district have at least a Bachelor’s Degree. According to a 2006 report, this district is the fourth wealthiest in the nation, behind Virginia’s 11th congressional district, New Jersey’s 11th congressional district, and California’s 14th congressional district. It is the second-wealthiest district to be represented by a Republican.

      The residents in this district are largely white, affluent, well-educated, and overwhelmingly Republican with fiscal conservatism by far being the most salient aspect of the political culture. The district also contains a sizable amount of white Evangelicals thus creating a culture of social conservatism within the district. The district is historically known as a suburban bedroom community for those who commute to downtown Atlanta.

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georgia%27s_6th_congressional_district

  4. Emerald1943 says:

    Hi Murph! Very nice! I believe you nailed this one on the head…the very LARGE head! :-)

    I do remember the time when Newt was in charge back in the 90’s. He was just as disgusting then as he is now. I don’t think I’ve ever seen such an ego in my life!

    There are a lot of voters who don’t know Newt like we older folks know Newt. It is going to be interesting as the information drips out in the next couple of months, and people get to know Newt like we do. There will be some who deny that this man is seriously ethically challenged, but over time, the truth will come out. Personally, I can’t wait!

    Thanks for your article! I thoroughly enjoyed it!

    GO OBAMA!

    • MurphTheSurf3 says:

      Hi Emerald….the truth spilling out, the drip-drip-drip of reality, the back alley leaks by the GOP, the whisper campaigns, the shouts of indignation, the lack of endorsements, the calls for a brokered convention that vacates the primary results…….I think Newt is in for a lot of slaps….not that he will notice them….invincible ignorance plus invincible arrogance.

  5. SueInCa says:

    From Juanita Jean’s blog:

    http://juanitajean.com/

    December 07, 2011

    And you know that because he’s is fabulously insulted that Hillary Clinton and President Obama made speeches yesterday saying that it is not right to harass and and murder gay people.

    I mean, I’m pretty much almost kinda sure that Rick doesn’t think it’s right to harass and murder gay people. He just doesn’t think telling right wing extremest not to harass and murder gay people should be said out loud.

    After both President Obama and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton made impassioned speeches Tuesday urging gay rights abroad, Republican presidential candidate Rick Perry issued a response decrying the “deeply objectionable” gay lifestyle.

    “This is just the most recent example of an administration at war with people of faith in this country,” Perry said in a statement.

    And then he goes on to say …

    “This administration’s war on traditional American values must stop,” Perry said.

    I want you to look at the crop of Republican presidential candidates and tell me what traditional American values are according to them. Good Lord, there ain’t a one of them who can enter a church without fear of a lightening strike.

    But, it’s the gay one that gets Rick on a roll. And that’s because Rick Perry is not gay.

    Just wanted you to know.

    • bito says:

      Sue, I sent this PPP poll to Reverend Sue, a twitter follower of PPOV and an ordained pastor fighting for LGBT/human rights. I saw the Perry ad the same day I saw the poll and asked her how do the R’s expect to win with gay bashing. This poll is from Arizona not some ‘librul’ state! I realize that AZ has their strong libertarian leanings and they are controlled by ALEC, but c’mon Gov. Goodhair, your ad won’t even play well in AZ. This was an act/ad of desperation and may work with some of the most rabid in some primaries, but it will be played again by the Dems in the general. What a loser.

      AZ pro-civil unions, remembers Goldwater fondly

      • Goldwater had a gay nephew (I think it was a nephew) and Goldwater spoke out in favor of having gays in the military nearly 50 years ago. Today’s GOPTP would call Goldwater a commie librul.

      • SueInCa says:

        Bito

        I just cannot figure them out. For Perry to post that ad so virulent about Gays was plain stupid. Their hatred knows no bounds.

        • AdLib says:

          I think this was just.a cynical and desperate cry for help by Perry to get the RR to save his nosediving campaign.

          It won’t work, even the RR can see he’s dumb as a basket of potatoes. They’ve got their guy in Newt and I doubt they’ll change their minds. They’ll just enjoy the rush of self-righteous hatred of those who are different then bask in the far more rotten stench of Newt.

          • bito says:

            Hey, even a basket of potatoes grows eyes.

            Cynical? I’m not sure, Desperate? Most likely. Plainly stupid, definitely.
            Beyond the Iowa caucus, the RR will be marginalized. IMHO, and of course they will be appealed to (they always are-- they vote.) but this election is “Who can beat that Commie Fascist Big Gubment Obama (and a black man)” and the economy, don’t you think?

            Curious, has anyone actually seen his ad on the TeeVee or or is it all the internets and cable “news”?

          • SueInCa says:

            I always say dumb as a box of rocks

        • SallyT says:

          Sue, what is even more stupid is Perry is wearing the same jacket that Heath Ledger wears in Brokeback Mountain.

    • SallyT says:

      “Traditional American values”? By whose standards? I don’t think I would give any of my values for a half a dozen of his.

  6. foodchain says:

    Everyone is gone so I am watching tv, Matthews and he ran a clip of Tom Coburn finding Newt’s leadership lacking. Other GOP under Newt’s House leadership saying “House on Fire!”

    • MurphTheSurf3 says:

      Foodchain…I am being told by old friends in the GOP that much more and much nastier is on the horizon. They need to kneecap him very quickly and they know it.

  7. SallyT says:

    Murph, I will be interested in seeing Newt handle the others in debate now that they will be coming after him. I don’t know if he has much of a challenge, however. Maybe Mitt will get ugly with him and I do think Mitt has a hell of a temper. Or Ron Paul who has been around as long as Newt. And, I do think that Huntsman has nothing to lose, so, he could hit Newt with facts. I think Huntsman is the smartest of them all. If Bachmann trys and Newt responds hateful or rude towards her, that won’t look good for him. Anyway, it will be interesting to watch.

    • MurphTheSurf3 says:

      Sally T….I think you outline of the likely script is on the mark. Bachmann and Santorum should hit him on moral issues, his personal life. Paul should go after his virtual lobbying, Fannie/Freddie position. Romney should take him on re. the national HC mandate which Newt proposed and failure to have an organized platform. Perry should hit his lack of executive experience- never managed nothing but his own efforts to get rich peddling his (largely imaginary) influence. Huntsman should take on his international credentials and insane claims as a cold war warrior.

      and then the pile on at the end.

    • Emerald1943 says:

      Hey Sally! Good comment! I would have to agree with you, especially about Huntsman. If the rethugs had a brain between them all, they would nominate him. He, alone, would be the most formidable against PBO.

      It’s interesting that you mentioned Romney’s temper. I kinda’ got the impression that he is simmering just under the surface and that if he blows, it will be amazing!

      As for Newt, oh well…what can one say?? This man has so much really damaging baggage that there is no way he can ever win the general election. The ads should be really fun to watch when the DNC gets going.

  8. jjgravitas says:

    Correct me if I’m wrong. Was Gingrich the guy who claimed the Clinton/Lewinsky sex scandal represented a “national security crisis” (remember, this was years before nine-eleven)? Or was it Tom Delay? Or was it both of them (Gingrich and Delay were thick as thieves back then)? Tom Delay was another guy who left congress while being investigated for corruption, and I haven’t heard from him since. Perhaps he’s in prison.

    • MurphTheSurf3 says:

      jjgravitas….In Human Events (Spring 1998) Gingrich wrote that the American presidency is viewed world wide as a rough equivalent of the Jerry Springer show.

      The Gingrich/Delay axis is another indication how corrupt he is.

    • foodchain says:

      jjgravitas, ooooooh, let me check. I was hoping for a conviction but lost track after “Dancing With the Stars”!

    • bito says:

      Made me look jj, 😉 I couldn’t remember either.

      He was Republican Party (GOP) House Majority Leader from 2003 to 2005, when he resigned because of criminal money laundering charges in connection with a campaign finance investigation. He was convicted of money laundering in January 2011 and sentenced to three years in prison but is free on bail while appealing his conviction.

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_DeLay

      • jjgravitas says:

        My bad. Don’t know why I thought Gingrich and Delay were in Congress at the same time. Oh well. My original point was that as embarrassing as the Lewinsky scandal was, the republican-led Congress made it that much worse by claiming it represented a threat to out “national security” in order to punish Clinton as severely as possible. And Gingrich had everything to do with that. Just another example of how Gingrich twists truth for political gain.

        • MurphTheSurf3 says:

          Delay was in office from January 3, 1985 to June 9, 2006 (resigned.

          Gingrich was in office January 3, 1979 – January 3, 1999.

          They were in the House at the same time.

          You were correct.

          • jjgravitas says:

            Thanks, Murph! Now I feel justified in my original observation … that Gingrich and Delay were close associates while Gingrich was in office. I remember that from news reports and documentaries from back then.

      • foodchain says:

        oh shoot bito, I didn’t scroll. lol! It figures he’s still out on bail.

  9. SueInCa says:

    Murph

    In a Democratic party candidate all of what you say would most likely be true, not so for the right. He will get the evangelical vote after the leaders have given him the sufficient dressing down in public. They will do this in order to give permission to their followers that he has been chastised and is now a “clean” candidate. I read one such item last week already. If he shows his “come to jesus” moment, all will be forgiven. I wish I could remember which RR nutcase wrote it.

    Then you have to look at his RR affiliations. A lot is made of him being a Catholic to take the focus off RR evangelical affiliations he has. They are:

    David Barton- erstwhile revisionist historian and flaming evangelical

    Mr. Barton is joined by fellow Christian minister Jim Garlow, widely credited with organizing the evangelical support for California’s same-sex marriage ban, and acting Chairman of the Board at ReAL. In addition to his duties as chairman, Pastor Garlow also acts as one of Newt Gingrich’s top spiritual advisers. Both are staunch advocates of Seven Mountains Dominionism, a fringe Evangelical Christian movement, and regularly discuss the need for religion to have a greater impact on our government.

    Renewing American Leadership -- The political unit of a religious conservative group called Renewing American Leadership, whose honorary chair is Newt Gingrich, is aiming to raise $500,000 to $1 million for high-stakes political issues in its first year. Their website:

    http://www.torenewamerica.com/the-real-doctrine

    http://www.rightwingwatch.org/content/newt-gingrich-and-dominionists

    • MurphTheSurf3 says:

      Sue in CA….

      Barton, Garlow, the Dominionists, Renewing American Leadership are evangelical but are they mainstream evangelical? I think there are grounds to doubt how acceptable he will be once his fuller story gets known. I live in Missouri and one Baptist Pastor here who I know has told his congregation that repentance and a moment of conversion admits one to the fellowship, BUT NOT to the leadership of the fellowship. Leaders must have a proven record of unremitting faithfulness.

      Here is how I read it:

      His past personal life certainly seems to suggest that courting evangelical voters would be an uphill battle: to begin with, he divorced his first wife -- while she battled cancer. He is currently married, not to the woman for whom he left his first wife, but to his third wife, a congressional aide with whom he had an affair -- while he was leading the impeachment campaign against Bill Clinton for his own infidelities.

      Ahead of the Iowa caucuses, Gingrich has yet to sign the Iowa FAMiLY Leader’s traditional marriage pledge, but he is reportedly reconsidering previous objections. If he does sign, Gingrich will have to find a way to square his own story with the pledge to “acknowledge and regret the widespread hypocrisy of many who defend marriage yet turn a blind eye toward the epidemic of infidelity and the anemic condition of marriages in their own community.”

      Recent polling by Public Religion Research Institute drives home just how much of a problem Gingrich’s personal history could be going forward:

      -Fifty-seven percent of Americans and fully 70 percent of both white evangelicals and Republicans say that an elected official who commits adultery should resign.

      -Most significantly, white evangelical Protestants in particular tend to draw a straight line between fidelity in personal life and trustworthiness in professional life. While the general population is evenly divided, 64 percent of white evangelical Protestants and a majority (55 percent) of Republicans disagree that an elected official who commits an immoral act in their personal life can still behave ethically and fulfill their duties in their public and professional life.

      http://publicreligion.org/research/2011/06/more-americans-say-financial-misconduct-by-elected-officials-is-a-very-serious-moral-problem-than-say-sexual-misconduct/

      Consistent with these findings, there has been some resistance on the ground. A group called Iowans for Christian Leaders in Government has already written a strongly worded letter to Bob Vander Plaats, the head of the Iowa FAMiLY Leader, declaring that Gingrich is “not an acceptable choice among Christians.” Meanwhile, Southern Baptist leader Richard Land warns Gingrich that while evangelical men might forgive him, far fewer evangelical women will be able to override their discomfort with his infidelity.

      • SueInCa says:

        Murph

        I am not saying it will be a cakewalk but believe it, baggers and republican evangelicals will forgive him. Evangelicals should be broken up into different groups as there are many different types. You cannot do a poll on “evangelicals” and think you have a group that believe the same doctrine. Granted, the women will be much harder to convince but I think republicans have proven in the past that sexual misconduct will be overlooked, look at Vitter. And they dislike Obama more than Newt’s misconduct.

        • MurphTheSurf3 says:

          Sue….I think the research model was pretty thorough Have you gone to the link because there are elements in the results that support our POV.

          Vitter…..Louisiana is family politics and he was able to do get out from under his prostitute struggle because of that network and his connections in the state, including religious ones. Newt bulled his way through then and is hoping to do the same once more. The conversion angle has less power for him given the context. But, as you point out, there seems to be a solid core willing to set aside almost any principle to shoot down Obama.

        • Sue, I think with most evangelicals, all a “sinner,” has to do is to claim to be “born again,” and all past indiscretions are forgiven. It’s a big problem I have with evangelism and Christianity in general.

          • MurphTheSurf3 says:

            KT….I think I have mentioned this before. A local Southern Baptist pastor has told his very large congregation that conversion brings forgiveness and the embrace of the community, but it does not endorse the efforts of such a person to seek the leadership of that community. Leadership requires continuity, a track record a proven record.

            • Well Murph, that seems to the exception rather than the rule. I think the fact that Gingrich is rising in the polls indicates that the RR are willing to “forgive,” him for his past indiscretions.

          • SueInCa says:

            I would have to agree with you KT

  10. AdLib says:

    Let’s bet a virtual dollar. I think that the conventional wisdom you describe is out of step with the reality out there.

    The Tea Party voters know who Newt is and that’s okay with them. They won’t stampede away from him because it’s brought up that in the 1990’s he had ethics violations.

    Sometimes, it’s hard for the reasoned to understand the mind of the unreasonable. All the points you make will be valid reasons for moderates and indies not to vote for Newt in a GE but I think it is mistaken to think they apply to the minds of Baggers.

    What seems to be clear is that Baggers, who make up the majority of GOP voters, vote on emotion, not reason. You can throw all those facts at them and they will still say, “I like Newt because he’s not afraid to body slam Obama and attack the liberal media!”

    They simply don’t seem to care about moral and ethical issues in their candidates…which is convenient because none of them have any moral or ethical values.

    The best candidate to them is the one who can be the most vicious and voice all the hatred they have for Obama, Dems, Progressive issues, the media, and “the other” (poor, black, Latino, women, etc.).

    That trumps everything else.

    And you have to really understand this whole “redemption” scam Newt has insulated himself with. These ultra-religious zealots are total suckers for anyone who “converts”, no matter how calculated, insincere and cynically utilitarian it is to a politician.

    So, Newt is forgiven by them for his entire past. All the points you make? That was him as a sinner. Now he is saved. So each issue that you and I and Indie voters may see as devastating to Newt, they see as only more of a reason to embrace him for his sins.

    We’ll see what the following weeks will bring but today’s polls only show Newt’s popularity growing and Mitt’s declining:

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    • escribacat says:

      Hey Adlib, Maybe we need to set up some kind of a “tabulator” for the GOP nomination. They could each start out with a hundred marbles. Every time they make a gaffe they lose an appropriate number of marbles. Every time a poll comes out that makes them look good, they get more marbles. At the end, the Gooper with the most marbles gets the nomination!

    • MurphTheSurf3 says:

      AdLib….just left a long response for you in reply to your thoughtful reflection this morning.

      This is procedural. There is an odd bit of text above the image at the top of the story. Any idea what it is doing there? It says “via WikiMedia Commons” Can it be eliminated?

      I think I am getting the hang of the posting process…at last. I appreciate your patience and guidance.

    • MurphTheSurf3 says:

      Evening…been a heck of a day.

      I read your comment when you first posted it.

      I wanted some time to consider your POV. On reflection, I agree with you top to bottom in regarding to the TP base (and other associated ultra and neo conservatives). My thinking was (and still is) directed at the GOP establishment, who control the money, and the party organization. Will the TP exist if there is no money, or party organization to support it? Or is the common ground of hatred of Obama, and by extension of Democrats, enough?

      The GOP establishment has pushed back hard on the Gingrich candidacy. I have been astounded at the number of former members of Congress and sitting members who have already spoken of their grave concerns. I have been amazed at the number of conservative pundits who have written and spoken of the dangers inherent in his candidacy.

      The only agents/representatives of the GOP who seem to bucking this trend are Fox/Limbaugh.

      So….I think the GOP kingmakers and puppeteers are going to attack him directly and indirectly without ceasing. I think they are going to speak to Murdoch/Ailes, to Palin, to Armey, et. al. Ron Paul will not tolerate someone building on his legacy. Michelle Bachmann will try to eviscerate him as a fraudulent conservative.

      Their greatest concern is not losing the presidential bid since that seems likely with either Gingrich or Romney. Their greatest fear is that Newt will dominate the face of the GOP for the next 10 months and sour dozens of House, Senate, Gubernatorial, and State Legislature races.

      Murdoch is in enough trouble in Europe right now. He does not want more. I expect Fox to move gradually to Mitt. Limbaugh? He is an arsonist who delights only in the burning down of houses, not the building of them. They probably can’t reach him.

      As to the general……all of the GOP infighting, the walking away in disgust, the seeking of alternatives (like a brokered convention) will cement the undecided in an image of the GOP as the survivors at Donner’s Pass. Pass the ketchup please.

      • funksands says:

        Murph, I think I find some things in your post to agree with. I DO thing the DC GOP is horrified not only with the idea of a Gingrich Presidency, but actually having to figure out how to work with him for 4 years. Not an easy task if past history holds.

        BUT, to Ad’s point, Gingrich has already won the Murdoch primary. I see little indication that FOX wouldn’t be perfectly pleased with a Gingrich candidacy. In Britain, Tony Blair and David Cameron both won the Murdoch Primary, and his support helped push them over the top.

        Unless Gingrich shoots himself in the foot with his mouth (my suspicion) I think he may be able to overcome the hurdles placed in his path. Politically and structurally, the stars are aligned for him to move through to the general, but Newt himself, as always, is the wildcard in the equation. I simply do not think he will be able to stand up under extremely close examination without imploding.

        To Ad’s points, I agree with them. But the human element in the equation makes the ENTIRE process far more unpredictable. Just ask high-flyer Herman Cain, or for that matter Hillary Clinton. She was reeling in the primaries in 2008, and a rare unguarded show of emotion in New Hampshire gave her a big boost going into the next few contests. It doesn’t take much.

        • MurphTheSurf3 says:

          Funk….Murdoch is under a cloud and today Fox began reporting the strong anti-G feeling in the Party….not a walkaway yet, but I sense they are looking for the exits.

          Your point about candidate implosion is key. And G has a long history of doing just that.

          Today he declared that the idea of “Palestinians” is a fiction….he regularly puts his mouth in motion before his brain is in gear.

      • AdLib says:

        The GOP Elite and money people are not all in one camp. There is the Rove Camp, The Koch Camp, The Wall Street Camp, The C Street/Dominionists, the GOP incumbents, etc. There is crossover between them but the Kochs are not in lock step with the Rove people.

        So, just because one segment of the GOP Elite goes after Newt doesn’t mean another segment won’t help finance him.

        And the funny part is, the more the GOP Establishment attacks Newt, the more Baggers will embrace him as an outsider. They will circle the wagons around him, the GOP Establishment that is going after him is obliviously setting him up as the more anti-government, anti-establishment outsider which is exactly what they want.

        The term for this in the military is blowback and that is exactly what Repubs attacking Newt are clueless about.

        I may be wrong about all of this and Romney could still win the nom but I think it’s more reliable to bet on the hatred of the GOP than on their wisdom or vision.

        • MurphTheSurf3 says:

          AdLib….

          More good food for thought.

          Here is how I think of it. In a Venn Diagram, the intersection point is the common ground which the sets share. Some sets share more common ground than others do.

          I suggest that the Rove Camp, The Koch Camp, The Wall Street Camp, have a lot of intersected space focused on common interest in getting the most control of the elements of government as possible.

          The C Street/Dominionists, and the ultra-TPers have little crossover. They are far more interested in political dogma and purity of belief. They might use or be used by another of the sets but that is an incidental relationship.

          The GOP incumbents are drawn from a number of the sets and exist at various points in the intersection.

          Which of the two Venn intersections will dominate and control the primaries and the GE? That is my question.

          • funksands says:

            Murph, what kind of coattails does Romney have?

            • MurphTheSurf3 says:

              It may well be that the kingmakers have decided that the Hippocratic Oath applies here: do no harm. If Romney is the candidate he might win, but he will not damage their chances of taking the Senate and holding the House. That is their bet. Gingrich, they say, will drag down lots of incumbents and new office seekers. And that too is their bet.

              Coattails? None but at least he has a full suit of clothes. Emperor G. has no clothes.

    • funksands says:

      Ad, I’ll take that bet. Newt enjoys thinking out loud too much to last.

      • MurphTheSurf3 says:

        Funk….he might flame out, but I think AdLib provides an accurate snapshot of who controls the primaries….rabid tea partiers.

        If you get a chance to read my long response to AdLib, I would be very interested in your thoughts especially in terms of your bet.

      • foodchain says:

        funk/adlib, well, this will be fun as both positions are true. He can’t stay on track and his history is “pre-digested”. And Callista looks like she could keep a freight train on track, totally steely woman!

        What if moderate GOP or independents-where they can vote- tune out and don’t vote primaries? Look at how many Democrats and independents refused to vote 2010. It’s one more consideration.

        I like the idea of Newt vs Obama but I finally have come to distrust the intelligence of the American people

        • MurphTheSurf3 says:

          Foodchain….I am astounded by the public mind- despite all that has happened, there is a crowd out there who regards everything the GOP does as heroic and everything the Obama Dems do as villainous. The willingness to accept any nonsense, no matter how vile, no matter how obviously deceitful, as long as it supports their world view is what drives this. How does one break through invincible ignorance coupled to invincible arrogance?

          • foodchain says:

            Murph, these folks are a round robin of arrogant ignorance. If the consequence of George couldn’t teach them anything or even have them admit to anything, I see little hope. All we can do is out number them. Frankly, I’d like to quarantine them in AZ and TX

            • MurphTheSurf3 says:

              Now there is a secure border I could support!!!!

              Outnumber them….with you on that.

      • AdLib says:

        You’re on, Funk. I think the only people who will care about that are Dems and Moderates who aren’t voting in the GOP Primary.

        Baggers like people who are loud and mean, what could Newt say that could alienate these people? He knows to just say incendiary things about those things that Baggers hate, I don’t see him upsetting them.

        • funksands says:

          Ad, I’m talking about him saying something very moderate. The rabid base won’t stand for that. One bad slip-up as the frontrunner and his support will begin to melt away.

          • MurphTheSurf3 says:

            Funk….just saw your comment re our house guest during Thanksgiving Week….thank you, friend.

          • AdLib says:

            It’s possible but I’d suggest that having gained the front runner spot for being extremist, if he makes a slip, it would be on the extreme side, not the moderate and it would only help him with the Baggers.

            Don’t see how one moderate comment would make Baggers flock to the far more moderate candidate, Mitt. I mean, if they don’t like moderate, they don’t like it.

            • SueInCa says:

              AL

              I think you are looking at a more careful Newt at this point. Still a megalomaniac but much more careful. The baggers, as you say will love him the more obstinate he becomes. He said yesterday in response to Romney’s attack ads, “I am running against Obama at this time” The baggers will eat that kind of talk up.

            • funksands says:

              Ad, if they are both viewed as moderates, then the baggers stay home. Then Romney wins.

    • I’ve got to go with you on this one AdLib.

      • MurphTheSurf3 says:

        KQ….what’s with the ideograms?

        How do you do it?

        So you think AdLib is spot on in this one? I think you may be underestimating the power of the GOP establishment. I do not think they will hesitate to pull out every bit of dirt they have to sink this guy for fear of his polluting the congressional and state races.

      • AdLib says:

        Whoa, cool name treatment! Am I late in noticing?

        Yep, I detest Newt but if the last year has taught us anything about the GOP base, Baggers that is, they are irrational and are rabidly faithful to the most cruel and hateful politicians.

        On that count, Newt tops Mitt big time.

        I do think that Mitt will now go into a new phony mode, acting the part of the angry, nasty pol but it will be as unconvincing as every other facade he presents.

        • kesmarn says:

          …And as if he’d read your last paragraph, AdLib, right on schedule (according to the AP):

          Republican Mitt Romney opened a broad and newly abrasive assault on rival Newt Gingrich on Thursday, dispatching surrogates and staff to cast him as unworthy of the GOP nomination and unfit to be president.

          • MurphTheSurf3 says:

            Kes….I think the GOP will be bringing out the heavy guns on this very fast. They need Newt kneecapped NOW if they are to stand any chance against Obama.

            The Newt Showcase (heretofore referred to as the Trump/NewsMax debate) now has NO’s from all but TWO, Gingrich and Santorum…I expect Santorum to bow out.

            The message is clear. NEWT IS NOT ONE OF US.

        • MurphTheSurf3 says:

          Re. Mitt….yes…..he is a Hollow Man.


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