Vox Populi – 04-22-2022

Vox Populi, our weekly live chat about the week’s events begins tonight at 7:00pm PDT. Hope to see you then! AdLib 7 days ago

Hey Murph! AdLib 7 days ago

Helllllllloooooooooo……… MurphTheSurf3 7 days ago

Hi Ad…….. MurphTheSurf3 7 days ago

Hey hey! How’s everything your way? Did you see any of the MTG trial? AdLib 7 days ago

Since it is just you and me right now….I wonder what your thoughts are on “winning” in Eukraine. I have many but you are rather more inventive that I….so… MurphTheSurf3 7 days ago

You mean “madam amnesia’s” wild ride? MurphTheSurf3 7 days ago

Winning in terms of the best possible outcome of this phase? AdLib 7 days ago

I don’t recall. I don’t recall. I don’t recall but I didn’t call Nancy Pelosi a terrorist. Oh yeah, I might have but I don’t recall. AdLib 7 days ago

Ad…not limiting the definition…what does it mean to win is the key to answering the question I think…..so what does winning look like? MurphTheSurf3 7 days ago

Ad……pathetic….but it is a winning strategy I fear. MurphTheSurf3 7 days ago

Honestly, I think this will be a long term ongoing war where Russia will continue razing the country while its military and economy is weakened. I think the breaking point will be when Russian citizens are being crushed by the economy badly enough to push back against Putin enough for things to change. AdLib 7 days ago

Back to Ukraine….it appears the Russians have decided to go after Moldova next which is why they are focusing on a particular slice of Urkraine to create a landbridge joining together a series of Eastern Territories that WERE Soviet Russia and then were lost to Russia itself. He wants them and more back. What this means to me is that even if Eukraine “wins” it may just be a timeout until the next full scale assault. MurphTheSurf3 7 days ago

I would like to think that a popular uprising is possible in Russia but I wonder if that is possible. Putin is waging a successful campaign of indoctrination based on the economic measures as an attack of aggression by nazis and imperialists. MurphTheSurf3 7 days ago

I don’t think MTG wins even if she’s not disqualified from running and even wins re-election. Seeing her on that stand makes me think that the DoJ will be less concerned about prosecuting other Repubs like her and hopefully her too since they show such a lack of credibility when put on trial. Any smart judge would easily recognize her convenient amnesia and assume guilt. Whether this lower rung judge does or not, the higher courts in DoJ prosecutions will. AdLib 7 days ago

What I understand is that a successful coup begins and ends with the military who remain solidly in Putin’s back pocket. MurphTheSurf3 7 days ago

Until her case gets to the Trump judges who overturn any negative ruling (with the Supremes as a backup)? MurphTheSurf3 7 days ago

Consider though that the atrition of equipment, missiles, troops, etc. that is happening to Russia is not necessarily fixable. With supplies from the world being stopped and banned, and their tens of thousands of their troops being killed per month, I think it’s Russia that will be hearing the clock ticking. AdLib 7 days ago

Consider the nations that remain in their trade circuit….some very big players….and providers. MurphTheSurf3 7 days ago

And if Ukraine and Moldova are both fighting Russian troops with NATO military equipment, I don’t see how the Russian military can be spread so widely as their strength declines. They will be at the very least, stalemated while their economy plunges into ruin. It’s unsustainable IMO and even if they create a landbridge, they become even more vulnerable to counter-attacks to destroy their hold on it. AdLib 7 days ago

I see a convenient exit ramp for Putin where he has carved out a new Eastern frontier that IS Russia….and then he says that this was his goal……until he has a new goal (like the rest of Ukraine) MurphTheSurf3 7 days ago

Murph – IMO, it could take years of destruction, both in Ukraine and Russia until the dynamics are there to end the aggressive invasion by Putin. Russia will not be able to withstand a long term economic crushing as will gradually build over time. AdLib 7 days ago

I wonder if there are years to be had……if he gets control of a new eastern frontier and then “negotiates a truce/peace” and declares victory (which it really would be) when does the next phase begin? MurphTheSurf3 7 days ago

There aren’t a huge amount of Trump judges in DC where criminal cases would be tried but yes, the SCOTUS could choose to side with insurrectionists and overthrow the US. But if they do, they become the enemy of the majority in a way that is much more severe and intense than there other ChristoFascist rulings. I mentioned last week, we are in a Civil War right now, just an unconventional one in various states. I think the tables would turn in such a case, where states like CA, NY, etc, that are blue, would simply stop respecting any rulings from the SCOTUS once they’ve crossed that huge line. Then we will be more of what we are now, as FL and TX are, independent governments that just don’t obey federal power. AdLib 7 days ago

Murph – But from what I’ve read, Russia is heavily propping up its economy with funds that are disappearing. Coal purchases are really dropping and oil is being sold at big discounts to India and other greedy leaders but Germany announced today that they will end purchases of Russian oil by the end of the year. Germany is dragging its feet but knowing this and expecting oil purchases to taper off during the year, the real pain of the sanctions will begin being unbearable before long. AdLib 7 days ago

Your scenario is what I call “the end of the union”……how does it every come back together? I would suggest that the next steps would be states working for financial independence from DC (and end to national taxation?) MurphTheSurf3 7 days ago

You mean by creating the land bridge and alleged control of Eastern Ukraine, Putin may declare victory and dial back the attacks? I could see that happening but no way would Europe and NATO let sanctions fall away until Putin is replaced with someone less maniacal. Russia will suffer for a decade or more IMO. AdLib 7 days ago

Ad…that economic news is something I am aware of but I suspect that you have more of a knowledge base so I accept what you say as true…..so when it really bears down on Russians as a whole, Putin declares victory with the Expansion of New Russia at its Eastern borders with (wink, wink) promises that this ends his aggression…until next time. MurphTheSurf3 7 days ago

I wonder if Europe/NATO would press economic sanctions once hostilities ended…..they have home populations too who will tire. MurphTheSurf3 7 days ago

Yes, the end of the Union, it is underway. That is what the GOP has been creating since Trump. The new disenfranchising districting against Dems and POC, the changing of state laws to allow Repubs to overthrow popular votes despite their voter suppression, the fascist ruling by dictators like Abbot and DeSantis. Right now the Right has kicked the table over that democracy sat on, it’s only Dems holding the US together right now, along with judges, and if the SCOTUS throws in with overthrowing democracy, Dems will have no choice but to take their states their own way when the alternative is kneel to ChristoFascist dictatorship. Ain’t gonna happen, no matter what the RW nutjobs think. AdLib 7 days ago

So we agree….the end of America……. MurphTheSurf3 7 days ago

Will there be economic rivalries among those states? Will the U.S. Military cease to exist? Will there be new associations of states (confederacies, dare I say)? Few are speaking of these awful possibiities. MurphTheSurf3 7 days ago

Murph – I think that scenario you describe is very possible and as you say, the world will not see it as the end of Putin’s invasions so it won’t help Putin as he may hope it will. NATO countries and the rest of the Western world will never go back to business as usual with Russia as long as Putin is there. He is a documented war criminal, no Western leader can justify dropping sanctions and becoming “closer” with this deranged murderer. AdLib 7 days ago

Now link our two discussions together…..is Nato able to do as you suggest if the U.S. is a fractured mess and no longer the formidable military power that it currently is? MurphTheSurf3 7 days ago

Murph – Very possible the end of the Union in real terms if Dems don’t prevail in this year’s election with 2 more Senate seats and holding The House. What’s the alternative when democracy has been crushed in the nation as a whole, when Repubs do exactly what they wail about (as they always project), when they end democracy with bogus elections. What will Blie states do with a clearly illegitimate government trying to oppress them into a tyranny? Resist. AdLib 7 days ago

And that resistance will begin under a Democratic President who will then be blamed for not holding the country together. MurphTheSurf3 7 days ago

Who knows what will happen but I would always suggest the more banal route as we’ve seen be the case with Repub’s pursuit of tyranny. I think the US military will continue, I don’t think a bogus President and Congress can use military force to make CA bow to their social issue Nazism. And I can see states using economic tools to prevent the Feds from exercising power over them. If states halt sending tax money to the Feds, no military force can fix that. AdLib 7 days ago

well….I am thoroughly depressed. MurphTheSurf3 7 days ago

What you describe may be a best-case scenario. MurphTheSurf3 7 days ago

Again, I don’t think the division in the nation will weaken the US military which the president may be CIC of but who are trained not to allow any political order that violates the law or Constitution to be obeyed. AdLib 7 days ago

A stupid, selfish, naive electorate on both sides has put us here. MurphTheSurf3 7 days ago

I continue to point to 16,000 voters in three states gave the election to Trump by not voting…..most person of color who were misled by their own leaders to put pressure on Dems who they said “were taking their votes for granted.” And yes, that is just one of the many scenarios that could have changed the results… MurphTheSurf3 7 days ago

I hope your vision of the military holding to constitutional principles is one that can hold. I have my doubts given how many in the military think. MurphTheSurf3 7 days ago

No, I don’t see Biden being blamed for the tearing apart of the Union anymore than Lincoln was to blame for the start of the Civil War. These are forces in motion, I do feel there is too much timidity on the part of Dems in power right now for fear of endangering re-election. Which is asinine because allowing Repubs to rig elections and get away with sedition is empowering them to do more. Desantis should be slapped down hard for violating Constitutional rights as should Abbot! But what are Feds and Dems doing to enforce the boundaries of democracy? Not enough, fascism is the fashion for Repubs and what price do they pay? AdLib 7 days ago

Had the Civil War gone differently…..Lincoln would have borne the stigma of the divider of the nation…..and your portrait of Democratic timidity feeds into my fears. MurphTheSurf3 7 days ago

As with the First Civil War, there can be an end to it down the line, as things really go off the rails and the usually distracted American majority gets pissed off enough to force change and end oppression and tyranny. The US is not a country where I think tyranny can continue unchallenged as in places like Russia that have been trained to accept it. AdLib 7 days ago

The dumbing down of America has left power in fewer and fewer hands….given the events of the last four years I do not have the confidence in the everyday citizen that you do. MurphTheSurf3 7 days ago

The First Civil War reestablished the union by way of occupation of the Confederacy and that occupation was brought to an end in a political deal that overturned the reconstruction leaving it to be dealt with a hundred years later. MurphTheSurf3 7 days ago

True, 16k votes put Trump in and put Biden in. A narrow margin in states that have too many unprincipled voters. We can’t change that but as I say, when suffering under a divided US becomes too fucked up for enough people, there can and I think will be a huge push to change things and I think it could happen then. And I do have a great deal of faith in our military, yes I know there are MAGAs and pro-fascists in it but they are a minority and would be overwhelmed by those who feel a sense of duty and loyalty to our democracy. That’s who most of them are, to one degree or another. AdLib 7 days ago

Does a MAGA President, and likely a more competent scoundrel than Trump was/is, let the military mind set remain as it is or does he/she reshape the military as dictators have done globally through the ages? MurphTheSurf3 7 days ago

I still don’t think Lincoln would haver been seen as the cause of division if the Civil War ended with a Confederate win. We’ve seen struggles in other countries and when a leader is trying their best to unite the country and their adversaries are trying to divide it, the majority wouldn’t blame the uniter for the dividers. AdLib 7 days ago

I do not have a great deal of respect for the intelligence of the majority of Americans but I have seen the example in history and other countries that when a population is overly oppressed by a tyrannical minority, they eventually push back and take back power. This is why the British Empire no longer exists. AdLib 7 days ago

The South would have blamed him (and indeed did in the first months of the secession- “we have been forced to do this because of an imperial president”…..and in the North his reputation would be so fractured by the loss that the image we have of Abe would never even get a chance to take hold…..he was never particularly popular. MurphTheSurf3 7 days ago

There is a growing sense that autocracy is making a push for dominance…. MurphTheSurf3 7 days ago

Murph – Yes, it continues to be one of the worst failures of this country that after the end of the Civil War, Reconstruction’s abandonment ended up throwing away our unity for the rest of our history. The Civil War ended being a hot war but it wasn’t snuffed out as it needed to be, for selfish political reasons. AdLib 7 days ago

And sadly that is the full legacy of the Civil War……and thus I frame the future as I do. MurphTheSurf3 7 days ago

Well….this was disheartening but interesting. I need to get about my business which beings in the early AM but I am glad to have been here tonight. You widened my perspective (but, sadly, making me sadder as I see the results as more awful that I did when this discussion began). MurphTheSurf3 7 days ago

Well…obviously in The South we STILL have racists who fly Confederate flags and deny the fact that slavery and racism was the cause of The South. To the propagandized masses at a current moment, the opposing party’s president will never be seen as a uniter. Repubs diss Lincoln today. But the majority revere him and see him as the uniter he was. You can’t educate the cultists, they don’t learn and that’s why they’re so easily brainwashed by thinking only with their emotions of fear and hate. AdLib 7 days ago

Please don’t feel sad, be a resister who is fired up by fighting the Good Fight and knowing that history is on our side but we have to be wise and see what’s coming. AdLib 7 days ago

Always remember this quote: ““When I despair, I remember that all through history the way of truth and love have always won. There have been tyrants and murderers, and for a time, they can seem invincible, but in the end, they always fall. Think of it–always.” ~ Mahatma Gandhi AdLib 7 days ago

My experience of the general republic is one that points to ignorance as a dominating force. Lincoln? As legend/myth he is regarded positively by many but that too can be undone….resisting as an option…pretty sure I do not have the years left or the energy available to be of much use in such a case. MurphTheSurf3 7 days ago

And how did Gahdhi’s life and legacy end up? Pakistan and India at each others throats ever since the Raj ended and both are economic/social basket cases. MurphTheSurf3 7 days ago

I look at the majority of people in this country from more of a behavioral standpoint. People are lazy when it comes to social responsibility but they are reactive, poke them with a stick enough times and they will get angry. They will, however, take a lot of poking if they can distract themselves. AdLib 7 days ago

I appreciate your positivity and perhaps that is nurtured in your environment in the same way as my negativity is nurtured in my environment. To be frank the power of ignorance has been shown to be far greater than I considered it to be in the time of COVID. MurphTheSurf3 7 days ago

Well…we shall see….take care. See you next week. MurphTheSurf3 7 days ago

Okay, see you next week! AdLib 7 days ago