Unfortunately for Republicans, it’s looking like what will be thrown into the bubbling GOP Presidential caldron in 2012 will be the will be the Aye! of Newt.

We’ve seen unlikely front runners rise and fall in the GOP version of “Who Wants to Be a Non-Romney?!” but for a variety of reasons, it appears that Newt Gingrich has won the final spin of that wheel and however unlikely it may have seemed or may seem now, Newt seems to be in the strongest position to win the GOP nomination…which would simultaneously put the GOP in the worst position to win the presidency (no sad faces now).

Some may argue, “But what about Romney? He has lots of money, organization, the most support from the GOP Elite, none of that which Newt can claim…how can Romney not be most likely to win?” A legit possibility though allow me to present a list of arguments as to why I believe that Newt should beat out Romney for the honor of getting trounced in the General Election by Obama.

1. The GOP game of Musical Chairs is over.

“I have one Trump, who’ll raise me a Bachmann? I have one Bachmann, who’ll say Perry? I have a Perry, Cain? One Cain! Do I hear a Newt? One Newt! Who’ll offer a Santorum? A Paul? I have one Newt, going…a Huntsman anyone? Going…do I hear Romney? Going…gone! The GOP Front Runner goes to Newt!”

The 2012 Iowa GOP Caucuses will be held on January 3rd, one short month from now. There is scant time for Newt to crash and burn and a different non-Romney to take the lead. All the possible non-Romneys who the Tea Party would support have had their turns and failed miserably. With Herman Cain dropping out at the same time that Newt has been given the communal Chuck E. Cheese’s birthday hat, Newt has been uniquely bolstered as front runner by a shrinking of the field and alternatives for anti-Romney voters. Most of Cain’s voters have jumped over to Newt and his lead over Romney is getting bigger.

Also factor into this that the public is growing more distracted with each passing day as their focus turns to the approach of Xmas and the attendant shopping, vacation plans, parties, school performances, dinners, etc. They won’t be paying as much attention to debates and blunders so where Republican voters are by next week would seem to be pretty close to where they will be right after the holidays…which is exactly when the IA Caucus will be held.

2. Newt Has Been Pre-Disastered.

Borrowing this phrase from John Irving, Newt is less likely to be hurt by gaffes or revelations in the eyes of extremist GOP voters because he has been pre-disastered. At the launch of his campaign, Newt was smacked down for being a greedy, racist, Ryan-Budget-heretic, cheating-on-his-wife, two-faced fraud and liar…more of the same won’t be news to those now supporting him. They don’t care, they are comforted by the warm glow of Newt’s hateful words for Obama, the poor, children, the unemployed and the 99% of Americans. Newt lovers hug themselves in delight that they finally have the nasty, vicious surrogate they’ve wanted to verbally assault Obama in speeches and in person. Such ideologues and haters are past the point of being influenced by Newt’s failings or gaffes or they wouldn’t be supporting him now. And his blatant BS about repenting has worked as designed on the rubes, the more he sins, the more he’ll repent and the more the suckers, as Newt plainly sees them, will love him for it.

3. Mitt Romney Didn’t Play to Win, Just to Not Lose.

The cowardly Strategy that Romney has been employing has finally come back to bite him in the polls (a very painful place to be bitten). Romney’s brilliant plan was, “I’m such an unlikeable phony that people see right through so I’ll be as Right Wing generic as possible in debates, stay out of the spotlight whenever possible and let my fellow loonies blow themselves up by letting them and their idiocy get attention. Then, I’ll win, not because I’m liked but because I’m all that’s left!”

This strategy was proving to be a very effective one as long as there was a distraction away from who Romney really is and a variety of opposing candidates splitting the anti-Romney voters and sharing the spotlight. The Achilles Heel of this strategy is, if Romney ever did get in trouble, he had few voters invested in him emotionally who would support him. So, Romney’s blatantly dishonest commercial (intentionally playing Obama’s words out of context) then his disastrous, dishonest and pissy one-on-one interview on Fox, kicked the game board over.

The reason Cain initially survived the sexual harassment stories and Newt has been able to make a comeback is that, however repugnant they may be to reasoning people, core GOP voters connected with them on a personal basis and liked them. Romney’s strategy by its nature, created a huge emotional gap between him and voters so there was no bond there to counterbalance his coming off as a douche.

And last week, that’s exactly how he came off to GOP voters (let alone the rest of the public) which has left a sour taste for many GOP voters now. The shine was stripped off of Romney last week, it’s hard to imagine people flocking to him now after seeing what he’s really like ( I mean, the guy lied to Fox about not being trustworthy! The double negatives of that are mind boggling).

Romney’s poll numbers have been stagnant since he began running for President in 2003. He maxed out back then, bogged down at around 20% nationally for eight years running and of course lost the nomination in 2004 to McCain because of that. And in 2011/2012, his position with GOP voters is just the same…and possibly getting worse. In recent polls, as Newt has risen, Romney has remarkably begun to decline. He may have money, organization and look like a President from Central Casting (or Comedy Central Casting)…but if the GOP core voters just don’t like him and just won’t vote for him, all the money and organization won’t get him elected in the end…as it didn’t in 2008.

4. The Passion Factor

One word that doesn’t come to mind about Romney supporters is “passion”. Have you ever seen an interview with a Romney supporter at one of his rallies? Have any of them come off with the fervor of a Tea Bagger decrying the word “czar”? Or have they come off as button down types that use them fancy words about why Romney should be President?

The hard right Republicans that are supporting Newt are the wild eyed ones. They’re the ones who go mad on the web as trolls, spam their friends to vote for who they support, pour energy into getting people to vote for their candidate and are rabid about getting into the voting booth.

Newt supporters are the aggressive teabaggers. Romney supporters are the country clubbers. Put them in Thunderdome and which team walks out? The Baggers are the majority of primary voters and the energy and power of the current GOP. The elite represent a small minority of GOP voters…as Romney’s current 18%-20% in the polls and 3rd place ranking in the latest IA polls reflect.

The passion aspect is very critical during the primaries, especially when it comes to caucuses. The passionate attend caucuses which is why Ron Paul does exceptionally well in straw polls and caucuses and explains Newt’s big lead in IA this week.

Also, moderate Romney followers will be less loyal. If Romney looks to be taking a beating, they will be more likely to jump ship than be willing to go down with Romney. Whereas if Newt has a setback, I think his rabid supporters will only redouble their support of him.

Still, it is kind of funny that the Baggers started off as anti-government and were so easily corrupted into supporting the candidate who has spent most of his life being around and a part of government.

5. Newt Can Win Three of the First Four Primaries in January and Gain Momentum.

As of now, there are four primaries/caucuses in January: IA, NH, SC and FL. Of these four, Romney only polls with a lead in NH. Gingrich polls with a lead in IA, SC and FL. Considering the rabid right wing electorate in IA, SC and FL, Romney doesn’t seem likely to beat out Newt in any of these. Winning the first three out of four primaries will give Newt’s candidacy enormous momentum and Romney’s sole strength of inevitability will be destroyed. As detailed below with FL, Newt’s leads over Romney right now are huge. If the margin of victory is even somewhat close to current polls, it will be devastating to Romney and rocket fuel to Newt’s numbers in upcoming primaries.

And consider this, what if Romney wins NH but by a small margin. It would be as bad as losing, he would be severely wounded byt that and with Huntsman doing better there and Newt rising, it’s a viable possibility. If Newt wins 3 primaries decisively and Romney wins NH marginally, he could be on the ropes that quickly.

6. Romney Can’t Win The Numbers Game By Losing the South to Gingrich.

This year, instead of what has been a winner-take-all, the GOP primaries will have proportionate winning of delegates in each state. This means that the states with bigger populations that swing with wider margins for a candidate will make the biggest difference.

Now, it is no secret that as a Northeastern Moderate and Mormon who was pro-choice, pro-gay rights and is responsible for the basis of the hated socialist conspiracy, “Obamacare”, Romney is not liked or trusted by the strong RW Evangelical base of the GOP despite his flip-flopping to claim he’s one of them. They know he’s not.

A Romney vs. Newt contest, with Newt being Southern and having a more accepted claim of being far right, would appear to hand Newt the entire South as well as the Bible Belt. And the margins could be huge (the latest Florida Times-Union poll has Newt with 41% in FL and Mitt with only 17%!).

Based on that, here is a grouping of states (thanks and props to Wikipedia) that could reasonably be projected at this point in time for each candidate. This far out from many of these primaries, with so much that could happen along the way, the proposed breakdown below is admittedly speculative. With that said, here we go (states are listed by number of delegates):

STATES FAVORABLE FOR NEWT GINGRICH TO WIN

Date State/Territory Type Delegates
6-Mar-12 Texas primary 155
6-Mar-12 Georgia primary 76
6-Mar-12 Tennessee primary 58
8-May-12 North Carolina primary 55
17-Mar-12 Missouri caucus 52
13-Mar-12 Alabama primary 50
6-Mar-12 Virginia primary 50
31-Jan-12 Florida primary 50
24-Mar-12 Louisiana primary 46
22-May-12 Kentucky primary 45
6-Mar-12 Oklahoma primary 43
13-Mar-12 Mississippi primary 40
10-Mar-12 Kansas caucus 40
3-Apr-12 Maryland primary 37
22-May-12 Arkansas primary 36
15-May-12 Nebraska primary 35
6-Mar-12 Idaho caucus 32
8-May-12 West Virginia primary 31
6–10-Mar-12 Wyoming caucus 29
28-Feb-12 Arizona primary 29
6-Mar-12 North Dakota caucus 28
3-Jan-12 Iowa caucus 28
5-Jun-12 South Dakota primary 28
6-Mar-12 Alaska caucus 27
5-Jun-12 Montana primary 26
21-Jan-12 South Carolina primary 25
5-Jun-12 New Mexico primary 23
TOTAL 1174

(One note about TX, Rick Perry may very well be in the race in March so his presence may carve out many delegates from the total available but it is listed as Newt’s win because he is still likely to receive more delegates than Romney.)

STATES FAVORABLE FOR MITT ROMNEY TO WIN

Date State/Territory Type Delegates
24-Apr-12 New York primary 95
24-Apr-12 Pennsylvania primary 72
12-Jun-12 Ohio primary 66
5-Jun-12 New Jersey primary 50
3-Apr-12 Wisconsin primary 42
6-Mar-12 Massachusetts primary 41
7-Feb-12 Minnesota caucus 40
26-Jun-12 Utah primary 40
28-Feb-12 Michigan primary 30
4-Feb-12 Nevada caucus 28
24-Apr-12 Connecticut primary 28
4–11-Feb-12 Maine caucus 24
3-Apr-12 Washington, D.C. primary 19
24-Apr-12 Rhode Island primary 19
24-Apr-12 Delaware primary 17
6-Mar-12 Vermont primary 17
10-Jan-12 New Hampshire primary 12
TOTAL 640

 

TOSS UPS AND NOT ENOUGH KNOWN TO PROJECT

Date State/Territory Type Delegates
5-Jun-12 California primary 172
20-Mar-12 Illinois primary 69
3-Mar-12 Washington caucus 43
7-Feb-12 Colorado caucus 36
15-May-12 Oregon primary 29
To be announced Puerto Rico caucus 23
13-Mar-12 Hawaii caucus 20
To be announced Guam caucus 9
10-Mar-12 U.S. Virgin Islands caucus 9
To be announced Northern Mariana Islands caucus 9
To be announced American Samoa caucus 9
TOTAL 428

To recap:

Newt is projected in this proposition to win in 27 states with 1174 delegates.

Romney is projected to win in 17 states with 640 delegates.

No call is made on the remaining 11 states and territories with 428 delegates.

Since the GOP Primary is no longer winner-take-all, the math would not seem to provide for Romney to have a real shot at beating Newt through the toss up states. For example, the latest CA poll shows Romney and Gingrich in a virtual tie, 26% for Romney to 23% for Gingrich with Gingrich rising and Romney stagnant (as usual). CA’s primary isn’t until June, by then Bachmann, Perry and Santorum will be out and their voters will go mostly to Newt. Even so, if we were generous and just called it a split between them, that would make CA a wash and leave only 256 delegates remaining available.

With Newt winning a majority of delegates in states with nearly double the amount of delegates than the Romney’s states would have, the remaining unassigned states and territories would seem to have far too few delegates for Romney to overcome Newt’s lead. Another factor will be the margin of the win in each state (and thus a greater difference in delegates) and what’s proposed here is that Mitt’s wins, aside from a few states like MA and MI, may be much closer than Newt’s wins in Southern and very religious, conservative states.

So not only does Newt have a far greater number of delegates in the states he is projected herein to win but having a greater potential to win by big margins could give him an insurmountable advantage.

As mentioned above, many events could unfold in the weeks and months ahead that turn this scenario into an interesting but misguided exercise but if Romney and Gingrich remain in the general vicinity of where they are now, as the two main candidates who will have a showdown and if no massive bombshell intercedes between now and January, I think this scenario could indeed unfold as described.

Which would provide to Obama, the Democratic Party and 99% of Americans a giant collective sigh of relief and justifiable confidence that they will prevail by substantial margins in 2012.

After all, Obama running against the most obnoxious, vicious, racist, egomaniacal, elitist, child labor loving, Medicare and Social Security hating, adulterous, lobbyist career politician that the GOP could put up…sure works for me.

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agrippa
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agrippa

The GOP will have to nominate someone, and the party is runnong out of people. It looks like it will be a matter of ‘the last one standing’.

bito
Member

Faux news will be all over this with faux outrarge in 5… 4…. 3…2…

Axelrod also noted that Gingrich has a long record that will be scrubbed and scrutinized.

“So the question is, can he sustain this over time?,” Axelrod said.

“I told my colleagues yesterday a bit of homespun wisdom that I got from an alderman in Chicago some years ago when one of his …colleagues wanted to run for higher office and he was really dubious. He said, ‘just remember the higher a monkey climbs on a pole, the more you can see his butt.’ So, you know, the Speaker is very high on the pole right now and we’ll see how people like the view.”

http://blogs.suntimes.com/sweet/2011/12/axelrod_on_newt_the_higher_a_m.html

foodchain
Member
foodchain

Nate Silver, “Gingrich’s Unimpeachable Conservative Credential”
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

I can’t believe Newt will advance without a lot of fun provided for the Democrats and I’m looking forward to it but, here’s Nate’s take:

“I have seen a lot of other commentators bring up versions of this point, but there is a reason why Republicans, especially conservative Republicans, see Newt Gingrich as by far their most qualified nominee and why they have been willing so far to excuse his periodic lapses from conservative orthodoxy.

The reason is simply that under Mr. Gingrich’s Congressional leadership, the Republican Party finally broke the New Deal coalition that had dominated American politics for more than a half-century, moving policy substantially to the right. That is a pretty impressive credential.

bito
Member

food, I can only partially agree with Mr. Silver, Newt was in the right place at the right time and not the leader of the pack. The move to the right began under Reagan, (when Newt was a back-bench-bomb-thower and he moved up due to longevity and the seniority system under effect at that time. It was the the “Raygun Democrats not the Gingrich Democrats. What followed was George Herbert, and the DLCer Bill Clinton. He takes credit for “welfare reform,” but that was a Clinton proposal.
I agree with Nate because of the perception but not exactly the reality of it.

KQµårk 死神
Member

I agree with you more than Silver here. Don’t forget Clinton put on the Democratic platform to “reform welfare” with his triangulation. If Obama had betrayed an entitlement program like that he would be killed by the pro left.

It indeed was Raygun whose presidency was the awful inflection point in our recent history.

foodchain
Member
foodchain

Hi bito. Good news then. More room for attacks. I think many of Newt’s cohorts involved in the Ken Starr/Bill clinton fiasco lost their bids for re-election. Might be fun to revisit Newt’s escapades. Might do some people good. 🙂

bito
Member

food, I happened to watch an old “Taxi” sitcom on the tube last night and Andy Kaufman (Latka) was on it, it got me to thinking about Andy and how he went off the deep end because of his believing in the characters he was playing were real. Will Newt get to that point at sometime, or has he already? 😆
Newt may very well win the primary, but he does have some very dark and heavy baggage in his past and having them brought out again in the general bodes well for the Dems, IMHO

PatsyT
Member
SallyT
Member

Patsy, thanks for posting. Was great!

SallyT
Member

AdLib, just for you. After seeing the polls today, you may say to me “I told”. However, you can not say “you so” just, yet. I have to hold out still a little longer. But, when you deserve something, you deserve something, so, I give you that so far. 🙂

KQµårk 死神
Member

The most conservative parts of the base are having big problems with the two chooses it faces.

(From Erick Erickson founder of RedState) I feel guilty for feeling this way, but I just don’t know that I can support [Gingrich] in the primary. Over Romney? Sure. Newt won’t be nearly as devastating down ballot as Romney if things go wrong for the GOP. But over Bachmann, Huntsman, and Perry in alphabetical order? I hope for a Perry rebound. He’s on his first wife still and has the most consistent record of conservative policies. And we hate the same people and institutions.

We have the same general world view. But if Perry is not ready, I have to say I may have to seriously reconsider saying I’d never, ever, never vote for Jon Huntsman. He is more consistently conservative than either Newt or Romney, more pro-life than either, and a far more competent executive than either. He and Perry also are very real and sincere family men. Jon Huntsman clearly adores his family and I have concluded, despite my own misgivings about him, that he would govern more consistently to the right of Mitt Romney than even his campaign team would have us believe.

I’ll support the nominee. Any of the Republicans will be better than Obama, regardless of the number of wives. I’m just not yet at a position where I think I can look myself in the mirror and be comfortable knowing I voted for a guy on his third wife who cheated on the first two. Honestly, it is more the cheating than the number of marriages. And even after moving his letter from the Baptist to the Catholic church, it seems he may have settled down on the marital front, but he’s still cheating on conservatives.

http://andrewsullivan.thedailybeast.com/2011/12/the-agony-of-erick-erickson.html

escribacat
Member

At least the guy is honest about being a hater.

funksands
Member

UPDATED: Newt Gingrich misses Missouri primary filing deadline

Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1111/68980.html#ixzz1fm78X3vh

This is what not having a staff or a real campaign results in….

bito
Member

funk, I had read about this and tweeted it when it first broke, but this update has me confused.

UPDATE – More from Juana Summers: Gingrich spokesman RC Hammond said the campaign had intentionally decided not to file paperwork to compete in Missouri’s primary.

“There was a large filing fee to file for the Missouri primary. One of the reasons was, oh gee, let’s not spend any money to not get any delegates. We decided to save the cash,” he said.

Hammond said Gingrich would be “ready to compete” in Missouri’s March caucuses.

Asked why Gingrich was the only major Republican candidate to opt out of the Missouri’s non-binding primary he said: “Their lawyers bill them by the hour.”

Missouri has a non-binding primary and a caucus? Is the caucus binding on the delegate selection?

kesmarn
Admin

New campaign motto? “$500,000 for Tiffany’s, but not a penny for filing fees!!” (It even rhymes.)

bito
Member

😆

Nirek
Member

How can the republicans claim to be the “family values ” party when they have candidates like Newt ? Remember he was having an affair while bad mouthing Clinton and trying to impeach him for the same kind of thing. I for one do not trust him.

kesmarn
Admin

They’re so good at double standards, aren’t they, Nirek?

I’ve noticed that it’s perfectly okay for the Koch brothers or Rupert Murdoch to be rich, but it’s wrong for George Soros. In their bizarro world… And there are so many other examples.

audadvnc
Member
audadvnc

Repugs would support Satan Himself if he could beat Obama.

KQµårk 死神
Member

I think they already did since Newt would nominate Josh Bolton as SOS who would facilitate the end of days.

audadvnc
Member
audadvnc

Ding!!! I was working in a Mpls hotel during the 2008 RNC. As I stepped out of my office, I was nearly run over by Newt as he waddled by, intent on communing with his Blackberry between closed door meetings.

Today at my hotel, we had a wild turkey camp out in our courtyard for a couple hours. He was more entertaining than any newts…

jjgravitas
Member
jjgravitas

I really hope this election won’t be as nasty and mean spirited as I fear it will be. With the rich remorseless fat-cat mad-tea-party republicans on one side and the 99% occupy movement democrats on the other side, it could get rough. It may need to.

KQµårk 死神
Member

Well AdLib I was wrong and you were right about the teabaggers loving Newt.

poll

It looks like a big factor here is older voters like Newt and baggers were an even older demographic than I thought.

poll

Overall poll

poll

SallyT
Member

AdLib, I luv ya but I haven’t moved from where I was Friday. Don’t think so…….

funksands
Member

I guess the question comes down to whether or not we can trust Newt as President. I can’t be the first here to wonder what happens when a younger, prettier, thinner country comes along and catches his eye?

How embarrassing for us if he divorces America and starts shacking up with Moldava?

Khirad
Member

He does like talking about Chile, and she’s quite slim. And boy is she stacked!

funksands
Member

Khirad, who could resist her? She’s got HUGE….tracts of land

Khirad
Member

He wants to hike up all over those hills and valleys, and those peaks? Oh my! He’ll have found his solo maté.

SallyT
Member

But, she is Chile and may well be a cold bitch. And Chile, so good at dinner parties but a real gas when to bed. I think Newt is fond of hot air but I believe he likes his own.

kesmarn
Admin

😆 funk, you are priceless.

bito
Member

Taking all your excellent analysis in mind AdLib, do you think Newt can go a whole month without saying something really outrageously dumb that would end his run? A month seems a long time for him to me.

The “X-Factor?”

ADONAI
Member

I think it’s still too early to call but you make a compelling case.

I just think back to Giuliani. How he was the front runner at about the same point in the 2007-2008 campaign. 77% of Republicans polled said they would vote for him. He only trailed Clinton nationally and not by much.

But, as you said, Newt’s failings are well known and Rudy’s were less so. The constant string of attacks put him out of it and he failed miserably in Iowa and New Hampshire.

I would just be surprised if Newt won.