Displaying 2,431 To 2,460 Of 3,237 Comments Here is what I “wrote” in reaction to the story (actually what I got from two folks at the Daily Kos for whom I provide attribution). ================================ When it creates a data model that matches past outcomes and then applies it to a single election This predictive model is actually after the fact. The model is brand spanking new. It hasn’t yet “predicted” anything that hasn’t already happened. What they mean is that if you input the variables for the past eight elections, it generates a simulated result consistent with what actually happened. That’s how political scientists often use the term prediction when discussing these models. FWIW, the study is here. [PDF] The authors’ web pages are here (Bickers) and here (Berry). (Judging by his photo, Berry may not even have been born before the 1980 election.) I wonder what their political leanings are? Be very skeptical of any claim that a recent model explains “every election since XXX”. It is easy to construct a model based on prior data that will have no actual predictive power. Also ….since 1980? Seriously? That is only 7 presidential elections. No economics based model can do very much with only 7 data points. NATE SILVER….I’ll take Nate Silver over these guys. He considers economic factors, he considers cultural factors, he considers recent polling, he considers prior polling bias, he is thoughtful about outliers and he predicts the odds that his model derives, not the outcomes, because that’s all he honestly can do. And no, his model won’t “predict” every election back to whenever. Many of the tools he uses (various economic indicators, certain questions asked in polling, how early polling is done, etc) are different or don’t exist yet if you go back before even 2000. He’s still seeing 2/3 chance of Obama victory, but the margin has narrowed since the Ryan announcement. Good as that sounds, that means 1 in 3 elections, right now, Romney wins. If he wins, we likely lose the congress for this cycle and the supreme court for a generation. That’s a hell of a lot of risk on rolling a 1-2 on a 6 sided dice. That’s still enough to make me freaking scared. http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/08/22/1123058/-Science-Daily-Analysis-of-Election-Factors-Points-to-Romney-Win-in-U-S-Election from greblos and mil » Posted By MurphTheSurf3 On August 23, 2012 @ 7:30 pm Ad Lib…have you seen this story? http://www.digitaljournal.com/article/331390 ” + Political science professors Kenneth Bickers of CU-Boulder and Michael Berry say their prediction model is based on economic data from all 50 states and the District of Columbia. State and national unemployment figures, changes in real per capita income are among key components considered in the analysis, although there are many other factors. The model has been accurate since 1980. There are dozens of articles on this and the right wing is crowing. » Posted By MurphTheSurf3 On August 23, 2012 @ 7:09 pm Read the short form by KQ. Then went to the source he provided and read the whole thing. It is excellent. I only wish I had a name to attach to it. It feels real however so I will pass it about. Thank you. » Posted By MurphTheSurf3 On August 22, 2012 @ 3:24 pm Glorious….fantastic….copied…..and archived. Thanks for putting it up for use to tap into. I listened to the rest of the interview- not as feisty but straight talk in a “no crap zone” » Posted By MurphTheSurf3 On August 22, 2012 @ 3:14 pm What I am posting at the three blogs where I write……. TO KNOW RYAN,, KNOW HIS BUDGET With its emphasis on eviscerating social programs that help the poor and downtrodden while preserving current tax rates for the wealthy – all in the name of debt reduction – the budget largely crafted by Rep. Paul Ryan (R., Wis.) sends a message that shouldn’t sit well with anyone who doesn’t like the sound of unfairness. Ryan and his cohort of Ayn Rand worshipers, believers in a religion that says leave it to charities to provide a social safety net, see nothing wrong in asking the poor to tighten their belts even more so the wealthy won’t have to pay anything additional to the tax collector. They are hell-bent on killing the New Deal that Franklin Delano Roosevelt crafted to resurrect the nation from the same favor-the-rich thinking that dominated politics prior to the Great Depression. Maybe it would help to recall what FDR said in dealing with a similarly oriented Republican Party in 1932. He said there “are two ways of viewing the government’s duty in matters affecting economic and social life.” The wrong view, Roosevelt said, “sees to it that a favored few are helped and hopes that some of their propserity will leak through, sift through, to labor, to the farmer, to the small-business man. “That theory belongs to the party of Toryism,” said Roosevelt, “and I hoped that most of the Tories left this country in 1776.” Unfortunately, there are still people who believe in the trickle-down theory that was resurrected by Ronald Reagan. Well, the rich have gotten richer. Where are the jobs? AND LET’S REMEMBER THAT RYAN WANTS TO PRIVATIZE SOCIAL SECURITY- PERSONAL INVESTMENTS IN THE STOCK MARKET…..what could go wrong. AND A VOUCHER SYSTEM FOR MEDICARE that leaves senior to make limited monies work against rising costs. » Posted By MurphTheSurf3 On August 11, 2012 @ 6:26 am Oh…you devilish photoshopper! Michelle joining with Sarah in proclaiming the motto: Don’t retreat, reload. And is that an update Tea Party Gadsen Flag? » Posted By MurphTheSurf3 On July 18, 2012 @ 8:44 pm Thanks for the tips re. images. Kalima was very helpful tonight. She found the image of dad with son at an event. Mitt is a young man in the picture. I am using it for the top of the post page and I found an image for the front page from the George Romney presidential campaign. As to the the U.S.S. Romney….I-C-E-B-E-R-G!!!!!! I think the article I posted tonight fits the events of the last few days rather well although I had worked on it for the better part of the week. Two interesting developments. Someone I know in the Obama fundraising effort told me last week that money was starting to come in from those connected to Wall Street firms. Hedging their bets? Tonight, I got a call from a friend in the Mo. GOP who said there is a lot of shrieking in their ranks: “We warned you. This guy is NOT one of us. He should not be trusted. What is he hiding.” I think Kristol is speaking for folks like that. Get the story out…if it can be survived…ok. If not, then we need to find someone else (no easy task). This might be the miracle we needed. » Posted By MurphTheSurf3 On July 15, 2012 @ 8:59 pm AdLib….hey there….I need a favor….I am looking for an image of George and Mitt Romney together. I have a post ready for the Planet but an image that is not copyrighted is eluding me. You seem very good at finding things like this. If I can’t find an image do you have any other suggestions? BOY HAS THIS BEEN AN INTERESTING NEWS WEEKEND. I think Mitt by be in real trouble. Gillespie is floating the idea of a retroactive resignation (absurd) hoping it will do. GOP surrogates are trying to get people to beleive that 1 tax return and the promise of another is “usual” and telling lots of lies on the way. Every effort to change the subject seems to either fail outright or run out of steam, and then the second round of questions about offshore money hoards…oh my! Kristol called for a release of 10 years of forms on Monday. I wonder if the real GOP masters are running worried and want him to either get out of this or just get out…..awful late, but I think it is a big mess. » Posted By MurphTheSurf3 On July 15, 2012 @ 3:01 pm ROMNEY INTERVIEW WITH with CNN’s Jim Acosta. NOTHING NEW. NO EXPLANATIONS. NO NEWS. He started with: “”There’s nothing wrong with being associated with Bain Capital, of course. But the truth is that I left any role at Bain Capital in February of 1999.” Presented with the strong challenge from the Obama camp, Romney said the are simply “an effort on the part of the president’s campaign to divert attention from the fact that the president has been a failure when it comes to reigniting the American economy.” Romney said “Is this what’s really what’s expected from the campaign of the sitting president of the United States? Is this the level that the Obama campaign is willing to stoop to? Is this up to the standards expected of the presidency of the United States?” he asked. “It’s disgusting, it’s demeaning it’s something which I think the president should take responsibility for and stop.” Obama’s campaign, he said, is “putting out information which is false and deceptive and dishonest” in their advertisements. In the interview, Romney also lent greater clarity to his intentions surrounding release of his tax returns. In January, Romney released his 2010 return and an estimate of his 2011 tax year liability. “And that’s what we’re going to put out,” he said. “people always want to get more and we’re putting out what is required plus more that is not required. And those are the two years that people are going to have and that’s all that’s necessary for people to understand something about my finances.” In the interview, Romney also lent greater clarity to his intentions surrounding release of his tax returns. In January, Romney released his 2010 return and an estimate of his 2011 tax year liability. “The law requires us to put out a full financial discloser and that I’ve done,” he said, adding that the most recent year will be released “as soon as the accountants have that ready. “And that’s what we’re going to put out,” he said. “people always want to get more and we’re putting out what is required plus more that is not required. And those are the two years that people are going to have and that’s all that’s necessary for people to understand something about my finances.” SO, ZERO, ZILCH, NADA, NOTHING NEW. Romney ducks, covers and moves on. Same old. Same old. » Posted By MurphTheSurf3 On July 13, 2012 @ 3:46 pm Ettelson….blank check…up to 2 billion from one source…imagine when the rest pile on. How much are they willing to invest esp. if the signs are that the bigger the investment the likelier it will work. Can the GOP have 20 Billion invested in their victory? I think so. The top Billion investors could muster that sum with ease. They know that if they win they will get all back in no time and then earn big interest on it. » Posted By MurphTheSurf3 On June 15, 2012 @ 5:07 pm I KNOW I responded to this and it did not publish (probably when i sent it, we got a server burp) Well I recall what I wrote. AdLib you know how much I respect your opinion and value your insights. I accept that your perspective on the election in terms of our experience in previous elections is of value BUT Citizens United created the environment in which we could have a Paradigm Shift and the MegaWealthy have made it happen. And while we are focusing on the Presidential race, the same thing is happening at the state and local level. It is wearing down local campaigns even faster than the nationals. Ettelson says he will give unlimited funds to unseat the Dems. He will. It is a good investment and history shows that those with the most money win 94 percent of the time. » Posted By MurphTheSurf3 On June 15, 2012 @ 4:00 pm Coughlin was an outlier…the fundamentalist, evangelical bent in contemporary Christianity is so widely spread it is hard to combat. You are among the best at identifying the issue and focusing on the danger….well here it is. » Posted By MurphTheSurf3 On June 15, 2012 @ 3:54 pm One of my friends who helped with the writing of the Occupy Futures article belongs to NetRoots and tells me that the pie in the sky idealism that says it is better to stand for one’s principles than to win is debated all of the time but that the zealots there (unlike those in the Tea Party) are not swayed by the argument that one must have power to make change. Ridiculous. When will they wake up, indeed. » Posted By MurphTheSurf3 On June 15, 2012 @ 3:52 pm All of your observations jibe with mine. I especially agree with the need for the President to have a three pronged argument (a diabolical pitchfork). 1) Here is what I have done with the Democrats. 2) Here is what I have not done because of the GOP AND what the GOP is promising to do if they get the power to do it. 3) Here is what I want to do. Two positive prongs and one negative one in the middle. Romney has been allowed to skate by because of the ratings lust you name…and it is going to bite those who have traded truth for a close race in their butts if they get an administration that acts as Romney does on his campaign- ignoring all inquiry which does not suit them. I hope the clan of dumb voters enjoys this summer because for many of them next summer will be far less kind if the GOP takes over. » Posted By MurphTheSurf3 On June 15, 2012 @ 1:01 pm A very good reading of the reality. There have been two similar periods. At the end of the end of the 19th century when unions were born, environmental issues were addressed for the first time, limits on political power by the wealthy were established and reform was in the air. The second time was after the stock market collapse in the waves of the Depression that established a government guaranteed social safety net. We are there again I think but only at the start. » Posted By MurphTheSurf3 On June 15, 2012 @ 12:54 pm Kes….I am not throwing in the towel. I will continue to write, to work for campaigns, to donate…but in 2010 I say very little of what I thought of our chances in the midterm…things are much worse now. This time I think we need to go in swinging with everything we’ve got representing the best of progressive thought knowing that if the GOP triumphs we are going to have become the savage opposition as they have been. Their policies will bring pain…we need to be in a position where we can name the pain and lay claim to the argument: We warned you in 2010 and 2012 when is the electorate going to learn? » Posted By MurphTheSurf3 On June 15, 2012 @ 12:51 pm Sue…terrific response. I agree with you….some folks are shocked that I would raise the subject, some know the truth down deep but dare not say its name, some are deniers (either on the left or right). What is needed is enlightenment, awakening, a “come to Jesus” moment, and the usually comes when the truth slaps you in the face, hard. Of note while I got a lot of blowback at the two sites where I posted the original, NONE of it was substantive. Folks from the right just said I was chewing sour grapes. Folks from the left said I did not have enough trust in the American people (or to ignore the polling). No one, not one actually took my arguments apart. The most substantive comments have been here at the Planet. Yes, there are a number of people like you and I who see beyond ourselves and our immediate circles, but there are not enough of us. I do not accept the polling or the pundits as objective, but they point to trends. I assume that ALL Pacs and ALL Corporate Giving is about self aggrandizement and an investment in future wealth and/or power/ Thank you for your thoughtful response. » Posted By MurphTheSurf3 On June 15, 2012 @ 12:46 pm I posted this earlier today at another site…got some support and a lot of flack for it. Your thoughts are welcome. I EXPECT ROMNEY TO WIN Why? Because I can read the polls. Because I can see states that were leaning Obama slipping into the tossup category. Because I am convinced that far too many of our fellow citizens are woefully uninformed or misinformed. They do not know how the government works and therefore that the failure to have jobs action, or debt action, or tax action in the form of bills is the responsibility of the House, first, and the Senate, second. One is controlled by the GOP. The other has the GOP with enough votes to block everything. They do not know how the economy works. They do not know that we are still in the BUSH ECONOMY because economies are huge ships at sea and it takes them a long, long time to slow down, to get up speed, or to change direction. They do not know that the persons with the most power in the economy are those with the most money, those who control the money. Those folks are siting on two to three trillion dollars they will not move into the economy. Big Money makes money if it decides to take action. Big money hires, builds, invests, studies OR NOT. The Big Money has decide to support the GOP because they can buy them lock, stock and barrel. The GOP will make laws that will make them a lot richer. So…most people will only pay attention at the end of the race. They will be swayed by tons of propaganda, heavily favoring the GOP because they have the most money. They will be swayed by simple arguments and the most zealous, sadly in many cases, the most hateful, will provide a lot of grassroots energy. SO like in 2010 they will vote GOP because they expect the folks who got us into this mess and are promising much more of the same…..will get us out of it. They won’t but by then it will be too late. AND, YOU KNOW, I SHOULD BE HAPPY. I am retired, The Stock Market will Soar because that is where rich people put their investments and they will want them to pay off. My investments will do well. My pension will pay up. My medicare and social security will be ok- the GOP does not want my generation angry. Later in the day we learned that two of the billionaires have given the GOP a blank check AND the GOP in the Senate have announced they will be blocking every Obama court nominee. The Coup continues. » Posted By MurphTheSurf3 On June 14, 2012 @ 7:51 pm There was a time that would have looked at this as the crazy who stand on the fringe….now I look up and they are right in the center of things….so frightening. » Posted By MurphTheSurf3 On June 7, 2012 @ 3:33 pm This is the Koch agenda. Billionaires investing in the complete control of the government…that is what Citizens United has given us and this legislative package tells us how certain the GOP is that most people will not pay attention. I have archived your excellent summary. » Posted By MurphTheSurf3 On June 7, 2012 @ 3:30 pm I am going to search this person out. » Posted By MurphTheSurf3 On June 7, 2012 @ 3:26 pm I do know a cool minister…a Baptist. So it is not him. I wonder if I can locate him? I will check into it. » Posted By MurphTheSurf3 On June 7, 2012 @ 3:25 pm Kes….I saved it to my archive. I watched it and I agree. It is powerful. I plan to pass it on. Thanks. » Posted By MurphTheSurf3 On June 7, 2012 @ 3:24 pm Wisconsin will be sorry, but I fear they will not know why. Stupidity reigns supreme tonight. As you know, I have been predicting this for days but I gave some more cash to Barret and gave a lot of time on the phone in getting out the vote. I felt good for all of those willing to lay it on the line for the recall….and that enthused me. But Well Financed Propaganda is Catnip for the Stupid. » Posted By MurphTheSurf3 On June 5, 2012 @ 8:07 pm Indeed. Not that I did not expect it and even predict it. The polling said it all. People are every bit as stupid as I have been saying here for days. Propaganda….it gives folks the evidence that fits their self delusion. » Posted By MurphTheSurf3 On June 5, 2012 @ 8:03 pm People are every bit as stupid as I have been saying here for days. » Posted By MurphTheSurf3 On June 5, 2012 @ 8:01 pm Hope Walker has a Nice Thank You Card to Send to Justices Roberts, Scalia, Thomas, Alito, and Kennedy Citizens United gave him his margin of victory. $45 million spent by the Walker campaign and its allied forces $9 million spent by the Barret campaign and its allied forces 5 times the money….for what I suspect will be a few percent points victory. **************** SITTING HER WITH A SOUTHERN COMFORT MANHATTAN…. THINKING ABOUT MANY HOURS ON THE PHONE IN THE PAST FEW DAYS AS PART OF THE GET OUT THE VOTE EFFORT….WORTH DOING DESPITE THE LOSS IF IT TEACHES MANY AN IMPORTANT LESSON… MONEY COUNTS » Posted By MurphTheSurf3 On June 5, 2012 @ 7:24 pm Thanks. Just finished my last shift. I actually ended up doing a whole bunch of speed calls in the last hour. I did not get a single person who had not voted. So the turnout should be big. » Posted By MurphTheSurf3 On June 5, 2012 @ 5:47 pm JUST GOT OFF THE PHONE MAKING GET OUT THE VOTE CALLS TO WISCONSIN 4th time in three days Talked to lots of people. ONE SIMPLE QUESTION. HAVE YOU GOTTEN OUT TO VOTE TODAY? IF YOU WANT TO DO THE SAME GO TO IMPRESSIVE….Democracy in action one person at a time. You can hear the pride in their voices. You can hear the determination. IF THIS IS OUR SPIRIT THEN WE CAN BEAT THOSE » Posted By MurphTheSurf3 On June 5, 2012 @ 3:38 pm LINK for Barrett Walker Debate from last night » Posted By MurphTheSurf3 On May 25, 2012 @ 9:52 pmComments Posted By MurphTheSurf3
WHEN IS A PREDICTIVE MODEL NOT REALLY PREDICTING?
Boulder – Mitt Romney will become the next U.S. president as Mr. Obama’s campaign drowns in a current of high unemployment, according to a highly credible analysis by the University of Colorado.
A shrinking middle class frustrated by the slowest economic recovery since World War II will help elect Mr. Romney, according to the state-by-state CU study that has correctly forecast every presidential election every since 1980. The CU analysis accurately predicted Ronald Regan’s victory over Jimmy Carter and picked every president since that 1980 contest based on Electoral College results.”
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“The law requires us to put out a full financial discloser and that I’ve done,” he said, adding that the most recent year will be released “as soon as the accountants have that ready.
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I EXPECT THE CONGRESS TO GO GOP
I EXPECT MORE STATE GOVERNMENTS TO BECOME REPUBLICAN
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MONEY COUNTS A LOT
MONEY COUNTS A LOT IN CREATING A PROPAGANDA JUGGERNAUT
PROPAGANDA JUGGERNAUTS WIN ELECTIONS
2 hours at a time
It is a reminder, a pat on the back and a statement of solidarity.
http://democracyforamerica.com/
WHO ARE SEEKING TO BUY OUR DEMOCRACY
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If anyone is still here….this is the link to the Walker/Barrett debate tonight http://www.c-span.org/Events/Wisconsin-Governors-Recall-Election-Debate/10737430973-1/
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