healthcare2The CBO is estimating that 2/3 of the U.S. population will have a Public Option available in their state, according to the Senate bill.

Unless I’m reading this breaking news wrong, this does not mean the Public Option will be available to most people but that 1/3 of the U.S. population will live in states that opt out of offering the Public Option.

The CBO goes on to say that the Public Option’s premium will likely cost more than private insurance plans  so only 3 -4 million Americans are expected to sign up. Still, I would hazard to guess that the benefits provided and size of deductible would be better than the lowest cost, high deductible private plans people could buy.

Could that be true? Would that many states opt out of a public plan even though it’s of no cost to them? Just to serve their insurance industry contributors at the expense of the millions of human beings in their states (not counting Texas, of course)? And will those voters take politicians out of office and replace them with those who will opt in to the Public Option?

Considering how rates keep rising, I would also hazard to guess that as private insurance companies keep squeezing more profits out of premiums and since the Public Option expense won’t include paying billions more in exec salaries, the two’s price points should cross in the near future, where the Public Option costs less, offering lower deductibles while insurance companies keep offering lesser expensive premiums but with $5,000 deductibles.

As long as the Public Option is able to take root, it does seem that with the passing of time, it will become more and more desirable and eventually open up to the majority of Americans.

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nellie
Member

Bernie Sanders is on Ron Reagan saying he thinks the Dems have the votes for cloture. Randi Rhodes earlier predicted the two senators from Maine would join Dems to bring the bill to the floor for a vote. It’s going to be interesting ….

escribacat
Member

I don’t get what the vote this Saturday is for…? Is this “cloture?” Meaning, yes, we’re gonna vote on it?

nellie
Member

yes, this is the vote to shut down any filibuster and move the bill to the floor.

escribacat
Member

Excellent. Thanks. It sounds promising…!

nellie
Member

If my understanding is correct, this is NOT the vote that Lieberman has promised to block. This is the senate bill, and he has said he’s going to vote for cloture on this one.

The bill he threatens to filibuster is the FINAL conference bill, that must go through a vote again in both the House and the Senate. That’s the one where Randi thinks Cantwell and Snowe will join with the Democrats.

What a drama!!

bito
Member

EF, Lieberman on the second vote. that one takes 51, and he can “sit on it and spin.”

bito
Member

My Bad, I think that’s correct.
Still,EF, Lierman.

nellie
Member

I think there is a second opportunity for a filibuster after the bill is conferenced. That’s when Joe is going to strike… Or am I mistaken?

bito
Member

Lamar Alexander (R-TN) is on the tube, right now, saying that the bill is a 2.5 trillion dollar bill. Will anyone ask him “Hey, Lamar, where did you get those numbers? Huh?”

javaz
Member

Hi bitohistory!

You don’t think that Arizona will opt out of the public option?
Isn’t the opt out clause, but under a different name, on our ballot next November?

I do not know what to think, but I do know that there are some reasonable Republicans out there complaining about health care insurance costs.

My dental hygienist is a very young woman and very Republican, and she had a baby two years ago.
Yesterday the health care reform came up and she told me that she’s outraged because her monthly premiums for her, her husband and her baby is $1600.00!
My gosh, that is ridiculous for young, healthy people!
I explained how Reagan was the person that caused this fiasco, and she said that other patients had told her the same thing, but then she said, and bless her heart, that Reagan had people’s best interests at heart, and didn’t understand the ramifications or greed.
Sigh.
The good news though, was that her and my Mormon dentist are disgusted with health care costs and want reform and an affordable option.
That is shocking.

bito
Member

javaz, There are good Republicans all over AZ, Just not in our State Legislature.;-) I am not sure if that opt-out referendum will make it on the ballot. Last I heard they were still collecting signatures. Wish I could remember the name for it so I could do a search on it. I guess I could listen to some local RW radio. Nah!

javaz
Member

This is a great site that explains the Health Care Nullification in Arizona.

http://www.tenthamendmentcenter.com/2009/06/26/arizona-hcr2014-national-health-care-nullification/

bito
Member

You’re good girl! I don’t care what you husband says.:-D
Thanks.

javaz
Member

🙂

KQµårk 死神
Member

I think that’s a conservative estimate no double meaning intended.

I know the right wing will try to fight healthcare in their states for some sick political points. I really don’t see where they get that number the only big state I think that will dare opt out is TX.

I would not be surprised if the estimate was just based on how many states are dominated by Republican governors and legislators now. But as we saw with the stimulus even the Republican state legislators don’t like to refuse public money or programs.

AlphaBitch
Member
AlphaBitch

Texas opting out may well mean Texas could turn blue. It has a high number of uninsured (yes, they are legal), and a high ccst to provide medical care to the uninsured. It could mean people getting more involved. Or not. Such a stubborn state – long ago, a friend compared Texas to Afghanistan (having stayed in both places long enough to be familiar with them). We seem to rank high in goof-balls and uneducated! I mean, it’s where Glen Beck bumped uglies with Ted Nugent. It was also the home of Miss Ann (Richards) and Mollie Ivins. A land of contrasts and big hair..

Pepe Lepew
Member

Yeah, but that’s assuming a majority of Texans will vote their interests.
I have no doubt there are some very good people in Texas, but you need a majority voting for their interests.

bito
Member

The CBO was really vague on how they came up with that 1/3-2/3 thing. Looks like it’s a best guess thing.

bito
Member

Think this is going to be easy from now on?
From my mail box this morning:

Breaking news: Since the historic health care vote, outside Republican special interest groups have spent nearly $2.4 million directly attacking Democrats who voted “yes” on health care.

They have made it clear – they will say or do whatever it takes no matter the cost.

I won’t let their special interest friends stop us from creating the change our country needs. This year already, opponents of health care reform led by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce have spent $60 MILLION on attack ads.

bito
Member

First take. Works for me. I even will take the opt out portion. Can you imagine the reaction in a “purple state” if they opt-out?
Can you see the “red states” outside looking in? I belive that this will cause a change in the long run. Short run, it may not be the best for the country but it may be the only “sausage” that could be made with the given ingredients that were on hand.

It is afoot in the door for universal HC

1912-2009, now that didn’t take too long, did it?

KQµårk 死神
Member

You can’t deny the competitive advantage in states that will have the public option either especially for small businesses and attracting employees.

Think about it out out states will have higher insurance where less businesses will offer healthcare insurance. That’s a recipe for economic disaster in those states.

bito
Member

Good point, KQ. There does seem that there will some effect on commerce in the opt-out states. AZ is trying to opt-out even before it is enacted. According to what I could understand (from the bill) it can’t be done. ???

KevenSeven
Member

The opt out is a clever ploy to defuse reaction to the bill. But every compromise stinks to a greater or lesser extent.

Let various states opt out. Those will be red states and those people already hate me for not being a real American, so bugger them.

KQµårk 死神
Member

Hey now I’m in the red state of GA. 😉

Fuck it though I will move like millions of other Americans to a state just to get socialized medicine.

bito
Member

As opposed to “false American” 😛

nellie
Member

I believe states can opt out only after the program has been in effect for 2 years. That makes it harder, once people get accustomed to the program. This is only what I’ve heard in summaries, however. I haven’t read the bill yet, so I can’t say for sure.

bito
Member

Nellie, I did a search on the bill using the words “opt out” and I don’t see a date certain?
FWIW

nellie
Member

That’s good to know. I’m going to try to read the bill. I’ll keep an eye out for details.

escribacat
Member

I thought the point of the public option was to provide a lower cost premium, which would create more competition in the insurance exchange. I don’t get it.

KQµårk 死神
Member

Adlib is right about his points and the public option will have more people with preexisting conditions so average costs will be higher.

But the important thing is to compare apples to apples for people with preexisting conditions or who are older the public option will most like be cheaper than private insurance while private insurance will probably try to cherry pick what they can and offer low cost programs to younger healthier people like AdLib said. This is what will skew the costs.

I see allot of incomplete information about the public option having higher premiums not explaining why the average would be higher.

bito
Member

AdLib, from where did you get this summary of the CBO report? I would like to take a look at it.