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AdLib On January - 11 - 2016


We’re now just three weeks away from the Iowa Caucuses and just over four weeks away from the New Hampshire primary and at this point, the polls show it’s possible for Donald Trump to win at least one of the two if not both. This could propel him to winning the GOP nomination. Many Democrats (and late night comedy show hosts) have been rooting for Trump to win the GOP nomination for President, seeing how his candidacy has been poisoning the GOP brand and tearing the party apart.

But some are now worrying that they should have been more careful about what they wished for. What if Trump becomes the nominee and is one election away from becoming President of the United States?! What if he beats Hillary or Bernie? Has my wish doomed our country? And why didn’t my wish to win the Powerball come true instead, damn it?!

All valid questions and concerns and if one went purely on what one sees in the MSM, one might feel that they had great reason for such worries. But the inevitable failure of a Trump candidacy in a General Election is far more obvious than the news stations that profit from promoting Trump would ever reveal. There is one very important number that makes it impossible for Donald Trump to win the Presidency.

And ironically, it is 47%.

No, it’s not Mitt Romney’s 47% but it’s just as destructive to Trump’s hopes. In fact, the irony is that due to that 47%, Donald Trump has built a wall around the White House that he will pay for…big time…with a massive loss if he’s the GOP nominee.

And what is that 47% that denies the possibility of a President Trump ever occurring?

A percentage of Latino voters. The approximate percentage of Latino votes that a Republican candidate would need in 2016 to win the electoral votes necessary to become President. That’s right, Donald “Mexicans are rapists, drug dealers and criminals” Trump just ain’t looking too favorable to Latinos for some reason.

According to the latest national poll on Trump’s support among Latinos, 67% of Latinos have a very or somewhat negative view of him, only 17% had a somewhat or very positive view of him.

17%. And he would need 47% to win in a General Election. Ain’t gonna happen. Trump needs his Latino-hating GOP base, he can’t pull a 180 degree spin without losing them. So he can’t change his anti-Latino positions.

Here’s a very simple scenario as to how quickly Trump would lose in a General Election.

  1. Whoever the Democratic nominee is can pretty much count on starting with getting around 249 electoral votes from Democratic and Democratic leaning states.
  2. Florida has 29 electoral votes.
  3. Trump would need at least 40% of the Latino vote in FL to win.
  4. 249 + 29 > 270 (electoral votes needed to win the Presidency)
  5. The Democrat wins the Presidency.

And that doesn’t count most other swing states that could push the Dem nominee over the top.

Though national polling of head to head contests with Trump and Hillary or Bernie may show it’s a closer race, Presidential elections are not about national numbers, they are about winning states (and general election polling this far out isn’t very accurate anyway). And in swing states with meaningful percentages of Latino voters, losing hugely in the Latino community likely will mean the difference between losing and winning that states’ electoral votes.

And add to that all of the moderate Republicans who may not vote at all or vote for the Dem if Trump is their party’s choice as well as the majorities of blacks, women, Asians, Muslims, etc. who Trump’s attacked that will be voting against him.

While the MSM will continue ignoring this unavoidable truth to keep alive the ratings bonanza that a possible Trump presidency is bringing them, those who have rooted for Trump to win (and in the process, destroy the GOP) shouldn’t be their own buzzkill. Grab a bag of peanuts and a cotton candy and enjoy the Trump circus, knowing that it will close out of town next year.

Written by AdLib

My motto is, "It is better to have blogged and lost hours of your day, than never to have blogged at all."

15 Responses so far.

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  1. jjgravitas says:

    One more thing, Regardless of who wins the Democratic nomination (Hillary or Bernie), I’d like to see them put their differences aside and run together on the same ticket, as POTUS and VPOTUS. As partners, they could strike a balance that would be very hard to beat. Clinton/Sanders or Sanders/Clinton, I don’t care.

  2. jjgravitas says:

    Never say never. I was certain that there was no way George W. could win against Gore in 2000, but by hook or by crook, he did. And I had no idea that there would be such a huge landslide vote for republicans in the last midterm election, but that happened too. And yes, I voted both times so I have every right to complain. So no matter who the current Democrat is running against, there is no room for complacency, or for not voting on the assumption that someone else will take care of it for you. That’s how we get screwed, friends. Don’t forget that the republican states have been fighting to destroy voters’ rights in the name of imaginary “voter fraud”, which will place limits on minorities, the elderly, and on youth.
    Hate to be a buzzkill, but those are the facts. Great article, Adlib.

  3. escribacat says:

    I’ve been thinking about this more — and more pessimistically. If I had to make a bet today, I’d bet that our next president will be Hillary. But I think there are several scenarios that could spell big trouble for the democrats and possibly hand the White House to Trump or worse, Cruz. Some events that could dismantle that guaranteed 249 EC votes:

    — Hillary wins the nomination. Bernie runs as independent, splitting the dem vote.
    — Hillary wins the nomination. Bernie supporters stay home, refusing to vote for Hillary.
    — Hillary wins the nomination. Too much dirt comes out about emails or Bill or whatever.
    — Bernie wins the nomination. He’s too far left (the scary “socialist”) for middle of the road Americans.
    — Big terrorist attack or other exogenous shock. Frightened Americans vote for the saber-rattler (eg Trump) who will “protect” them.

    • monicaangela says:

      I don’t believe Bernie would ever run as an independent, but then what do I know, I also don’t believe Hillary will win the primary. :)

  4. monicaangela says:

    I believe it all depends upon tricks played by those who operate the voting machines and voter turnout. Many Latinos who are eligible to vote do not turn out to the polls on election day, same with Blacks, Asians, Muslims, and many whites that could help prevent a Trump election. Given the aforementioned, I’d say Trump still has as good a chance as any other candidate. I guess it depends on how vigilant the electorate is, and how motivated the voters are. If we are depending on Wasserman Schultz to help bring out the democratic vote, I’d say Trump has a very good chance of winning the general so we had better hope he doesn’t win the nomination in the primary. :)

  5. gyp46 says:

    Another fine post, I also have been pointing out on a few right leaning sites that the ‘Hair’ has no ‘Air’ in his sails, numbers do not lie no matter how much trash talk his supporters throw at the wall. BUT!!! and this is a big ‘BUT’, it is the Senate that is the true goal this time around, I do not want to detract from the importance of the White House but we need to take back the Senate also. Turn out by liberals has been dismal the last two bi elections and that has contributed mightily to our problems, every democrat and thinking person in this country needs to get registered and vote, the other options, i.e., a republican controlled government is unthinkable!!

  6. Nirek says:

    Ad, that number 47% is the good luck number for us and the bad luck number for the teapotty!

    I don’t usually buy powerball tickets, but with the jackpot so high I bought 3 last time and will probably buy 4 today. I will make sure to make 47 the powerball on one and that 47 is one of the numbers on each ticket.

    I am more concerned with Bernie winning. I don’t care for Hillary, she changes too much for me.

    Bernie has resisted saying anything bad about her even though she has made comments about Bernie.

    Excellent post, AdLib, my friend!

  7. escribacat says:

    Being a natural born worrier, I’ll keep chanting that magic number to myself.

    • AdLib says:

      Escrib, as I mentioned, it is a sign of sanity and reason to be concerned that the worst could happen but the purpose of my post was to illustrate how the numbers and reality dispute the dishonest proposition with which the MSM is blanketing the country.

      There is no path for Trump in a General Election. None. Even with a record white turnout (which wouldn’t happen because Trump is despised by half the GOP), he still would need Latino votes in a number so high, he could never reach them. There is nothing that Hillary or Bernie could say to make half of Latino voters prefer the guy who calls them rapists and criminals and wants to deport 11 million of their fellow Latinos with a storm trooper force,

      I do want Trump to win the nom because it will bring about the massive crushing of the GOP in November and unlike in 2010, it will be a long time before they can pull themselves back together to be a viable alternative to Dems.

      Repubs will be in a long term civil war with themselves if Trump wins the nom and is destroyed in the GE. The establishment GOP will try to lock out the Tea Party from power while the TP will blame them for not supporting Trump enough and causing him to lose. Will the TP revolt and leave the GOP, reducing it to a much smaller minority party? Or will they redouble their efforts to take full control of it?

      The GOP soap opera following the election will be so entertaining.

      All that said, we will still need to GOTV and work as hard as if it was a neck and neck race…just so we can make the inevitable victory for Dems over hateful Repubs the sweetest it can be.

  8. Kalima says:

    A very astute article, AdLib. One that brings an abundance of hope that Trump will crash even if he wins the nomination. It will be like Cecil B. Demille’s “The Greatest Show on Earth” without the wonderful cast and award. Just a handful of sad clowns and deflated elephant balloons.

    Have to laugh whenever this egotist gets an honest if unfavorable review. He slams back by calling the reporter or newspaper rubbish and liars. Amazingly those who remember him as anything but a great guy or good leader, are lying too. Shades of Kim Jung Un who is now ranting that the countries saying the H-bomb test was more than likely a fake, are declaring war while pointing his pudgy finger in the direction of S. Korea.

    Interesting and well researched article from WaPo, and I think the only one lying here is the subject of this article. He claims time at this military academy is proof that he can lead the country. He was sent there at 17 by his parents to learn some discipline as he was out of control. Problem is, he still is out of control and orbiting towards a black hole.


    50 years later, disagreements over young Trump’s military academy record


    • AdLib says:

      Kalima, folks should have confidence in the numbers and ignore the MSM hype. Everything that pours out from the MSM is just snake oil, it’s a fraud, they built up Trump because he’s a cash cow for their channels but the reality is in the numbers.

      Even in polls of Repubs, Trump has enormous negatives. I’d say from the numbers that half of the GOP doesn’t want to support him. I’ve heard of Repubs saying they’ll vote Hillary before they’ll vote Trump. And the reverse isn’t true, Dems aren’t looking at Trump as a better alternative.

      If Trump loses IA, he will go mental. He isn’t emotionally prepared for losing so publicly. If he loses the GOP nom, he will be devastated..if he gets the nom, he will be destroyed when he loses to Hillary or Bernie.

      That’s what’s called a win-win!

  9. pinkpantheroz says:

    Ad, I presume there will be a Vox Pop this week during the GOP circu…er debate. Hope so. In the meantime, why, oh why is the MSM not calling this clown for what he is? They must have shares in the Snake Oil Distillery. And since when did any so-called real political party decide that a media organization could choose which candidates may speak at debates? I, for one, can’t wait for the ArmaGOPon in November, when not only do the GOP fail to gain the Presidency, but they get slaughtered in the General Election as well. GOTV!!!!

    • AdLib says:

      PPO, yep, there will be a Live Chat tomorrow night for Pres. Obama’s final State of the Union speech and on Thursday for the GOP debate. Busy week here at The Planet!

      It is a bit stunning to witness but since the MSM is all owned by greedy corporations, they are intentionally and dishonestly inflating the possibility of Trump winning in a GE because it makes their ratings and profits increase. They are all betraying the public for money, including every single broadcaster that parrots that BS.

      It was a long shot anyway for the GOP to win a Presidential due to the continued growth of minority populations and the farther extremes and racism that have taken over the GOP. No matter who the candidate is, they would still need to win around 47% of the Latino vote. Jeb may have had a better chance at that before he veered towards racism but he’d still lose. America looks like the Dem Party, not the mostly old white GOP and with each year, the Dems grow a bigger advantage.

      Hence the necessity of Repubs to pass voter suppression laws and go nuts on gerrymandering. They can win on a level playing field and they know it.

      I do predict an historic crash and burn by the GOP this November, especially if Trump or Cruz is their nom. I do think we will get The Senate back, poor Mitch the Tortise will be crying in his shell. And that will work very well if SCOTUS judges need replacing as is very likely.

      We will turn the corner on these hateful Repubs and this election will be a big step forward on that.

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