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MurphTheSurf3 On November - 3 - 2014

GOP crushes Dems

REFLECTIONS AND LEARNINGS FROM A LOCAL CAMPAIGN
with National Implications….

I was at a GOTV MEETING (Get Out the Vote) last night. It was pretty sad. I am working for a very well qualified Democrat in an overwhelmingly GOP District running for a seat in the Missouri State House. I have only been involved in the campaign for two months- called in as part of an effort to promote this individual.

She is a professor in business, a respected business consultant, the CEO of her own farm feed company, a community college administrator, and a long time member of town and county governing boards that are mostly GOP to which she got easily elected.

She is a Blue Dog Democrat, a moderate conservative: pro-life, opposed to non-documented amnesty of any kind, a 2nd amendment advocate, small business advocate and a champion of balanced budgets. She leans right on all of these issues. Where she leans left is in support of public education, the expansion of medicaid, maintaining the levels of public for families with minor children and the disabled, tax reform.

And yet every ad by her opponent paints her as a Lefty,  Lefty, Liberal….pro-choice, for amnesty, anti-gun rights, and an opponent of charter schools (which she is not), single payer socialized medicine (which she is not), and huge giveaways to those who will not work. The ads, and his speeches, do not even try to make a case. They offer no examples. They offer nothing from her words. All they do is throw up DEMOCRAT, THE CHARGES AGAINST HER, HER FACE AND…..

They also paint her as A BFF with Barack and Michelle- it’s like she’s over at the WH every weekend for a BBQ. She has never met either person (and actually worked for the Romney campaign in 2012) and has never spoken either name. The ads take a photo of her and a photo of Obama and put them side to side looking at each other. The text says that Obama has his eye on her as someone he can count on. Clever.

Remember this a Missouri State House race not a Congressional Race.

A lot of money has been spent on the race by the GOP….by our estimates six times the average. Why? There is no way she was ever going to win. Why throw so much money at so small a race.

They are doing it because it is a very effective strategy, especially in midterms. Specifically…

  • They have the money, why not spend it.
  • The halo affect. Money spent attacking an “Obama” candidate hurts all Democrats and her district is close enough to the St. Louis ring suburbs that it might have an effect on those races too.
  • Promotion of all GOP in the quest for a Wave Election so the GOP can claim a Mandate instead of a Close Call.
  • Folks really hate Obama and Democrats and love slapping them down.
  • Dems just are not very good at standing up for what they have done, and what they want to do while slapping down the “do nothing” “have no public plans regarding what they wll do” GOP, lack the money to punch back in the media, and the will to do so.
  • Dems are lazy voters. They lack party discipline. The unions used to bring it but they are a sliver of what they once were. So big money gives the message: “Don’t bother voting.” In fact that has been a very direct GOP media message.
  • Dems are not loyal. Big spending on the other side reinforces why they should be unhappy. “What have the Dems done for you?” By implication, “we” will do better. Far left groups assist in this by their attacks on the Democrats, in the person of the president. Did you see the Hispanic protests and heckler at two Obama events this weekend? Yes, they will be FAR happier with a GOP Senate…yeah, right.
  • Both GOP and Dems are ignorant. They do not, as a body, know how government works. They do not know the candidates, party performance, issues, or strategies. They have impressions from ads, tv talking heads, and their friends. They have vague ideas from the same sources. They have their own internal biases. All of it comes down to a gut reaction which leads them to either vote or not vote, and if they vote, to vote “from the heart.”

The thing is that most of those I have met in her campaign who support her cannot do what I just did. They cannot articulate why she would be a good member of the State Legislature. They cannot explain her positions. They cannot counter the Obama link. She has very little money….about 1/10 of her opponent if you include indirect, not-for-profit, and national support.

What about her opponent? He is lifelong GOP….joined the Tea Party when it became popular and has backed away in the last three years. He used to be pretty moderate (I voted for him) and understand how the State Legislature functions. He was part of a number of compromises that worked very well for the state. I know him. He is a good guy and he used to for medicaid expansion because without it the state gets stuck with huge emergency room and medivac bills, a lot of people who are a lot sicker because they do not get on going care, and an unhealthy work force because in this state you have to be making less that $400 a month and have assets worth less than $2000 to qualify for medicaid now and as a result the working poor (and there are a lot of them) are not insured, not getting care, and the core of our lower class work force.

BUT, now he is opposed to it. Why? “It’s socialize medicine.” “We don’t need it. We are doing just fine.” “The cost is too great.” “We don’t want any more giveraways to takers.”  I suspect, I hope, he does not mean any of it. But it does sell.

P.S. Where does the money come from? Well th Dems money comes from three sources: direct donations to her campaign (50 percent), her own money (25 percent), and state Democratic Party funding (25 percent). She has no national support or outside not for profit group money.

His money (about 10 times as much as hers) comes from direct donations to his campaign (25 percent), his own money (5 percent),State GOP Party funding (25 percent) and not for profit group money (40 percent) and national GOP Party funding (5 percent)

Written by MurphTheSurf3

Proud to be an Independent Progressive. I am a progressive- a one time Eisenhower Republican who is now a Democrat. I live in a very RED STATE and am a community activist with a very BLUE AGENDA. Historian, and "Gentleman Farmer."

8 Responses so far.

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  1. naxos says:

    A thought occured to me as I was reading your piece, about the state getting hit with “huge ER and Medivac bills.”

    Is this true? Do hospitals send states ER bills for uninsured patients who come in the door?

    BTW: Hospital ERs are staffed with doctors and equipment. Patient care “costs” the ER only what they paid for the medications and the electricity to keep the lights on. They bill is not based on service but rather on what they can collect for it. Because the doctors, nurses, and equipment are there regardless. If no one comes into the ER, the equipment sits idle and the staff gets paid anyway.

    When we read about “the high cost of care” in the ER, the stats are based on what the hospital might bill AT FULL RATE.

  2. RSGmusic says:

    Hi Murph again. Your correct again.

    I missed badly on the senators.

    way to GO republican voters

    LMAO Way to go Republicans voters??? GOP billionaires spend approximately 1.5 billion dollars to gain nothing?
    point one The GOP can not get by a filibuster..
    point two. The GOP can get by a VETO.
    If they change the rules to 50 They lose filibuster power in 2016 because they have to defend 26 seat and on 10 for the dems. They could lose 10 seats in 2016. THen have no filibuster power. Nothing get done again for 2 more yrs.

    ———
    ACA will they repeal their own republican plan?? The gop low income families need it the most!!
    SO if the state decides not to use it they LOSE Billions in State funding and have to raise state taxes so republicans will have to pay more money to get less h/care.

    The GOP will have to take h/care away from 3 million republicans total 10 million because of an avg of 3+ for a family and republicans in college will have to pay more for h/care for they have NO Plan call it the mystery plan .
    Results, Republicans pay higher state and lose income??
    Way to go Republicans voters?

    —--
    The GOP in each red state will lower taxes on the rich. regular republicans pay more state taxes and lose income again to balance the state budget or create MORE DEBT. They are all already broke and losing credit ratings creating even more debt for interest going up. They can raise taxes but they will not republicans will have to pay higher taxes any way
    Way to go Republicans voters?

    All republicans on min wages will not get a raise and lose income?
    Way to go Republicans voters? mayors in towns could raise the minimum wages and create MORE JOBS will they?

    All republicans voters will lose unemployment extension making them lose more INCOME.
    The bill causes ZERO debt.
    Way to go Republicans voters?

    State employees will be cut by 1/2 and republicans will lose 200,000 republicans jobs.
    LOWERING income again. The red states get less revenue creating more debt. They are already broke.

    The law will make republicans LGBT community be able to be fired for being LGBT LOSING JOBS and LOWING INCOME AGAIN! Losing more state and federal taxes MORE DEBT.
    Hispanics voters you now have little chance for getting for your fellow Hispanics to get citizenship??
    Way to go Republicans voters?.

    IF the rich and rich corps pay get tax reductions. Guess what, republicans in the two lower income ranges get to pay MORE FEDERAL taxes or CREATE MORE DEBT? The republicans all ready pay 2 to 3 times higher already.
    Way to go Republicans voters?

    The Keystone pipe line might get completed maybe creating 1000 part time jobs. Mostly Canadian not americans. Creating MORE hazardous waste will the republicans will have to pay more for Gas products LOSING MORE INCOME.
    Way to go Republicans voters?
    ———
    OR
    OBAMA can use executive powers and vetoes to SAVE all those republicans and every body else HIGHER taxes both state and federal and GET MORE INCOME!!

    Good thing the president is a DEMOCRAT.

    ———-

    THE WAR ON REPUBLICAN WOMEN CONTINUES.
    ALL red states and the nation.
    PRO life bills will cause MORE DEBT by the billions so you will have to pay MORE FEDERAL AND STATE OR create MORE DEBT?

    You could just drop Pro life and the red states spend NO money and nationally NO Money?
    Republican Women are Now less safe a long with all other women in the red states.
    PRO life = 2 lives lost, both republican children and mother.
    Pro choice = one republican life lost. Republican women you will lose all YOUR MONEY. Which is better for republican Women?

    Of course you can be pro life any way because Pro life is a choice is an option under Pro CHOICE.

    Again if you drop pro life bills YOU CREATE NO DEBT and DO NOT HAVE SPEND ANY MONEY Saving Billions.
    WAY TO GO REPUBLICAN VOTERS CREATE more DEBT YOUR RED STATES are already BROKE any way?

  3. kesmarn says:

    Murph, after the fact it looks as though you nailed it. I think one of your paragraphs really summed it up:

    Both GOP and Dems are ignorant. They do not, as a body, know how government works. They do not know the candidates, party performance, issues, or strategies. They have impressions from ads, tv talking heads, and their friends. They have vague ideas from the same sources. They have their own internal biases. All of it comes down to a gut reaction which leads them to either vote or not vote, and if they vote, to vote “from the heart.”

    I’d further add that they most certainly do not know history. I’m perpetually astonished that the very party that gave us Watergate, Iran-Contra, the phony Clinton impeachment, the trumped up/costly war in Iraq and a major financial crash is so currently beloved by so many.

    It’s as though none of that ever happened.

    Here in Ohio, the fact that the President saved the auto industry while GOP Gov. Kasich turned down millions in federal dollars for education and a high speed rail project is totally forgotten. Instead, the myth of the Kasich-induced “Ohio Miracle” prevails. Because that’s what all the Koch-bought ads on television call it.

    Voters seem to operate in a totally emotion-based mode — with the primary emotions being fear and anger. And there are plenty of operators who are more than willing to exploit that to their own advantage. The GOP sought to portray the Democratic Party as effeminate, lazy, out of touch with reality, impotent and corrupt — with some degree of success to judge by yesterday’s election results.

    Frankly, I don’t have the slightest notion of how that gets fixed. I know the analogy has been used before but it’s like a battered spouse situation. Amnesia about past abuse. A fondness for the abuser. And the eternal conviction that “everything is just about to change for the better.”

    Good luck with that, America.

    • funksands says:

      Kes, I find it interesting that a flotilla of left-leaning policy passed in state initiatives last night, while Democratic candidates got beat.

      Maybe it’s time they embraced some positive populism rather than being afraid of looking extreme. I think candidates that embraced that this year did pretty darn well.

      • kesmarn says:

        funk, that certainly worked for liberal Marcy Kaptur yesterday. For over 30 years she has stayed true to her own principles. What a concept. And people respect her for it.

    • Nirek says:

      Kes, you nailed it. Short memories about the party of no and all the bad things we have endured like the War in Iraq and the other things you mentioned. We Americans never seem to learn from history. Look at Vietnam. We sure never learned from the 50000+ lives lost there.

      Don’t get me started though. I could ramble on about all the mistakes America has made a second time or even more.

      • kesmarn says:

        Nirek,I’ve often said that it’s really too bad that history is taught so poorly. (Often by the football coach in recent memory.) People end up feel that it’s boring and irrelevant.

        Then later we find out that living it all over again is anything but boring. Anything but irrelevant.

  4. RSGmusic says:

    HI Murph

    Is their any reason the GOP official could lose? probably not.

    http://kbia.org/post/what-does-medicaid-have-do-missouris-credit-rating
    From the article )))) In the statement, Moody’s pointed out that it wasn’t so much the health of the state they’re worried about—it’s the federal government. While Moody’s hasn’t officially downgraded the federal government’s credit rating the way competitor Standard and Poor’s has, they worry about states’ exposure to “potential federal cuts.” As a result they’ve changed their outlook on Missouri’s rating from “stable” to “negative.” That’s not the same as a downgraded rating, but it’s not good.

    “They said the Triple-A rating holds,” said MU Professor of Economics Joseph Haslag. “But if they look forward, they’re seeing things that raise concerns to them about the future path.”

    It’s likely that thing of concern is Nixon’s attempt to expand the state’s Medicaid program.

    It is really bad for Missouri to turn down ACA and have to pay more state taxes to have NO plan. That might not be the case after looking at links on h/care.. More republicans would benefit form ACA and a medicaid expansion.

    ———-

    Editorial: Missouri must put higher education back within reach
    STLtoday.com‎ -- 21 hours ago
    That leaves Missouri with a less-educated workforce and makes the state a less attractive …
    Missouri State alum makes name in horror TV/film world
    Springfield News-Leader‎ -- 1 day ago
    4 state amendments put to voters on Tuesday ballot
    Monett Times‎ -- 2 days ago
    More news for Missouri education.

    Of course none of these issues came up correct.

    ranking of h/care 39th!
    http://www.americashealthrankings.org/mo
    It still seems to be ok for the populous of the state.

    Murph their is no cure for the lack of knowledge on the GOP/CONSERVATIVES and blue dog democrats. this is hard to take i know.

    It is sad that the state went from Truman to GOP in all theses yrs.

    Taxing the rich less always leads to not enough revenue and great debt at some time. Missouri will be one of the last places to fall.

    It is really Sad that to many of the citizens of the state can live with the GOP awful social issues.

    All though right conservative Christians do not practice what Jesus and god practiced or stood for!

    Sayings of ( the child of nature )

    ” On the earth there is peace for all that live on it.
    Why humanity does not live it, is all a function of right conservative religious beliefs. For their is no cure for religion and all need to be the only one.”

    This i wish for you and yours
    sayings from the ( child of nature )
    “see thru eyes of mother nature and time will pass, seasons will come
    and go. For the count of the seasons is tale of your life and in that tale protect mother nature”.


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