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AdLib On December - 5 - 2011

Unfortunately for Republicans, it’s looking like what will be thrown into the bubbling GOP Presidential caldron in 2012 will be the will be the Aye! of Newt.

We’ve seen unlikely front runners rise and fall in the GOP version of “Who Wants to Be a Non-Romney?!” but for a variety of reasons, it appears that Newt Gingrich has won the final spin of that wheel and however unlikely it may have seemed or may seem now, Newt seems to be in the strongest position to win the GOP nomination…which would simultaneously put the GOP in the worst position to win the presidency (no sad faces now).

Some may argue, “But what about Romney? He has lots of money, organization, the most support from the GOP Elite, none of that which Newt can claim…how can Romney not be most likely to win?” A legit possibility though allow me to present a list of arguments as to why I believe that Newt should beat out Romney for the honor of getting trounced in the General Election by Obama.

1. The GOP game of Musical Chairs is over.

“I have one Trump, who’ll raise me a Bachmann? I have one Bachmann, who’ll say Perry? I have a Perry, Cain? One Cain! Do I hear a Newt? One Newt! Who’ll offer a Santorum? A Paul? I have one Newt, going…a Huntsman anyone? Going…do I hear Romney? Going…gone! The GOP Front Runner goes to Newt!”

The 2012 Iowa GOP Caucuses will be held on January 3rd, one short month from now. There is scant time for Newt to crash and burn and a different non-Romney to take the lead. All the possible non-Romneys who the Tea Party would support have had their turns and failed miserably. With Herman Cain dropping out at the same time that Newt has been given the communal Chuck E. Cheese’s birthday hat, Newt has been uniquely bolstered as front runner by a shrinking of the field and alternatives for anti-Romney voters. Most of Cain’s voters have jumped over to Newt and his lead over Romney is getting bigger.

Also factor into this that the public is growing more distracted with each passing day as their focus turns to the approach of Xmas and the attendant shopping, vacation plans, parties, school performances, dinners, etc. They won’t be paying as much attention to debates and blunders so where Republican voters are by next week would seem to be pretty close to where they will be right after the holidays…which is exactly when the IA Caucus will be held.

2. Newt Has Been Pre-Disastered.

Borrowing this phrase from John Irving, Newt is less likely to be hurt by gaffes or revelations in the eyes of extremist GOP voters because he has been pre-disastered. At the launch of his campaign, Newt was smacked down for being a greedy, racist, Ryan-Budget-heretic, cheating-on-his-wife, two-faced fraud and liar…more of the same won’t be news to those now supporting him. They don’t care, they are comforted by the warm glow of Newt’s hateful words for Obama, the poor, children, the unemployed and the 99% of Americans. Newt lovers hug themselves in delight that they finally have the nasty, vicious surrogate they’ve wanted to verbally assault Obama in speeches and in person. Such ideologues and haters are past the point of being influenced by Newt’s failings or gaffes or they wouldn’t be supporting him now. And his blatant BS about repenting has worked as designed on the rubes, the more he sins, the more he’ll repent and the more the suckers, as Newt plainly sees them, will love him for it.

3. Mitt Romney Didn’t Play to Win, Just to Not Lose.

The cowardly Strategy that Romney has been employing has finally come back to bite him in the polls (a very painful place to be bitten). Romney’s brilliant plan was, “I’m such an unlikeable phony that people see right through so I’ll be as Right Wing generic as possible in debates, stay out of the spotlight whenever possible and let my fellow loonies blow themselves up by letting them and their idiocy get attention. Then, I’ll win, not because I’m liked but because I’m all that’s left!”

This strategy was proving to be a very effective one as long as there was a distraction away from who Romney really is and a variety of opposing candidates splitting the anti-Romney voters and sharing the spotlight. The Achilles Heel of this strategy is, if Romney ever did get in trouble, he had few voters invested in him emotionally who would support him. So, Romney’s blatantly dishonest commercial (intentionally playing Obama’s words out of context) then his disastrous, dishonest and pissy one-on-one interview on Fox, kicked the game board over.

The reason Cain initially survived the sexual harassment stories and Newt has been able to make a comeback is that, however repugnant they may be to reasoning people, core GOP voters connected with them on a personal basis and liked them. Romney’s strategy by its nature, created a huge emotional gap between him and voters so there was no bond there to counterbalance his coming off as a douche.

And last week, that’s exactly how he came off to GOP voters (let alone the rest of the public) which has left a sour taste for many GOP voters now. The shine was stripped off of Romney last week, it’s hard to imagine people flocking to him now after seeing what he’s really like ( I mean, the guy lied to Fox about not being trustworthy! The double negatives of that are mind boggling).

Romney’s poll numbers have been stagnant since he began running for President in 2003. He maxed out back then, bogged down at around 20% nationally for eight years running and of course lost the nomination in 2004 to McCain because of that. And in 2011/2012, his position with GOP voters is just the same…and possibly getting worse. In recent polls, as Newt has risen, Romney has remarkably begun to decline. He may have money, organization and look like a President from Central Casting (or Comedy Central Casting)…but if the GOP core voters just don’t like him and just won’t vote for him, all the money and organization won’t get him elected in the end…as it didn’t in 2008.

4. The Passion Factor

One word that doesn’t come to mind about Romney supporters is “passion”. Have you ever seen an interview with a Romney supporter at one of his rallies? Have any of them come off with the fervor of a Tea Bagger decrying the word “czar”? Or have they come off as button down types that use them fancy words about why Romney should be President?

The hard right Republicans that are supporting Newt are the wild eyed ones. They’re the ones who go mad on the web as trolls, spam their friends to vote for who they support, pour energy into getting people to vote for their candidate and are rabid about getting into the voting booth.

Newt supporters are the aggressive teabaggers. Romney supporters are the country clubbers. Put them in Thunderdome and which team walks out? The Baggers are the majority of primary voters and the energy and power of the current GOP. The elite represent a small minority of GOP voters…as Romney’s current 18%-20% in the polls and 3rd place ranking in the latest IA polls reflect.

The passion aspect is very critical during the primaries, especially when it comes to caucuses. The passionate attend caucuses which is why Ron Paul does exceptionally well in straw polls and caucuses and explains Newt’s big lead in IA this week.

Also, moderate Romney followers will be less loyal. If Romney looks to be taking a beating, they will be more likely to jump ship than be willing to go down with Romney. Whereas if Newt has a setback, I think his rabid supporters will only redouble their support of him.

Still, it is kind of funny that the Baggers started off as anti-government and were so easily corrupted into supporting the candidate who has spent most of his life being around and a part of government.

5. Newt Can Win Three of the First Four Primaries in January and Gain Momentum.

As of now, there are four primaries/caucuses in January: IA, NH, SC and FL. Of these four, Romney only polls with a lead in NH. Gingrich polls with a lead in IA, SC and FL. Considering the rabid right wing electorate in IA, SC and FL, Romney doesn’t seem likely to beat out Newt in any of these. Winning the first three out of four primaries will give Newt’s candidacy enormous momentum and Romney’s sole strength of inevitability will be destroyed. As detailed below with FL, Newt’s leads over Romney right now are huge. If the margin of victory is even somewhat close to current polls, it will be devastating to Romney and rocket fuel to Newt’s numbers in upcoming primaries.

And consider this, what if Romney wins NH but by a small margin. It would be as bad as losing, he would be severely wounded byt that and with Huntsman doing better there and Newt rising, it’s a viable possibility. If Newt wins 3 primaries decisively and Romney wins NH marginally, he could be on the ropes that quickly.

6. Romney Can’t Win The Numbers Game By Losing the South to Gingrich.

This year, instead of what has been a winner-take-all, the GOP primaries will have proportionate winning of delegates in each state. This means that the states with bigger populations that swing with wider margins for a candidate will make the biggest difference.

Now, it is no secret that as a Northeastern Moderate and Mormon who was pro-choice, pro-gay rights and is responsible for the basis of the hated socialist conspiracy, “Obamacare”, Romney is not liked or trusted by the strong RW Evangelical base of the GOP despite his flip-flopping to claim he’s one of them. They know he’s not.

A Romney vs. Newt contest, with Newt being Southern and having a more accepted claim of being far right, would appear to hand Newt the entire South as well as the Bible Belt. And the margins could be huge (the latest Florida Times-Union poll has Newt with 41% in FL and Mitt with only 17%!).

Based on that, here is a grouping of states (thanks and props to Wikipedia) that could reasonably be projected at this point in time for each candidate. This far out from many of these primaries, with so much that could happen along the way, the proposed breakdown below is admittedly speculative. With that said, here we go (states are listed by number of delegates):

STATES FAVORABLE FOR NEWT GINGRICH TO WIN

Date State/Territory Type Delegates
6-Mar-12 Texas primary 155
6-Mar-12 Georgia primary 76
6-Mar-12 Tennessee primary 58
8-May-12 North Carolina primary 55
17-Mar-12 Missouri caucus 52
13-Mar-12 Alabama primary 50
6-Mar-12 Virginia primary 50
31-Jan-12 Florida primary 50
24-Mar-12 Louisiana primary 46
22-May-12 Kentucky primary 45
6-Mar-12 Oklahoma primary 43
13-Mar-12 Mississippi primary 40
10-Mar-12 Kansas caucus 40
3-Apr-12 Maryland primary 37
22-May-12 Arkansas primary 36
15-May-12 Nebraska primary 35
6-Mar-12 Idaho caucus 32
8-May-12 West Virginia primary 31
6–10-Mar-12 Wyoming caucus 29
28-Feb-12 Arizona primary 29
6-Mar-12 North Dakota caucus 28
3-Jan-12 Iowa caucus 28
5-Jun-12 South Dakota primary 28
6-Mar-12 Alaska caucus 27
5-Jun-12 Montana primary 26
21-Jan-12 South Carolina primary 25
5-Jun-12 New Mexico primary 23
TOTAL 1174

(One note about TX, Rick Perry may very well be in the race in March so his presence may carve out many delegates from the total available but it is listed as Newt’s win because he is still likely to receive more delegates than Romney.)

STATES FAVORABLE FOR MITT ROMNEY TO WIN

Date State/Territory Type Delegates
24-Apr-12 New York primary 95
24-Apr-12 Pennsylvania primary 72
12-Jun-12 Ohio primary 66
5-Jun-12 New Jersey primary 50
3-Apr-12 Wisconsin primary 42
6-Mar-12 Massachusetts primary 41
7-Feb-12 Minnesota caucus 40
26-Jun-12 Utah primary 40
28-Feb-12 Michigan primary 30
4-Feb-12 Nevada caucus 28
24-Apr-12 Connecticut primary 28
4–11-Feb-12 Maine caucus 24
3-Apr-12 Washington, D.C. primary 19
24-Apr-12 Rhode Island primary 19
24-Apr-12 Delaware primary 17
6-Mar-12 Vermont primary 17
10-Jan-12 New Hampshire primary 12
TOTAL 640

 

TOSS UPS AND NOT ENOUGH KNOWN TO PROJECT

Date State/Territory Type Delegates
5-Jun-12 California primary 172
20-Mar-12 Illinois primary 69
3-Mar-12 Washington caucus 43
7-Feb-12 Colorado caucus 36
15-May-12 Oregon primary 29
To be announced Puerto Rico caucus 23
13-Mar-12 Hawaii caucus 20
To be announced Guam caucus 9
10-Mar-12 U.S. Virgin Islands caucus 9
To be announced Northern Mariana Islands caucus 9
To be announced American Samoa caucus 9
TOTAL 428

To recap:

Newt is projected in this proposition to win in 27 states with 1174 delegates.

Romney is projected to win in 17 states with 640 delegates.

No call is made on the remaining 11 states and territories with 428 delegates.

Since the GOP Primary is no longer winner-take-all, the math would not seem to provide for Romney to have a real shot at beating Newt through the toss up states. For example, the latest CA poll shows Romney and Gingrich in a virtual tie, 26% for Romney to 23% for Gingrich with Gingrich rising and Romney stagnant (as usual). CA’s primary isn’t until June, by then Bachmann, Perry and Santorum will be out and their voters will go mostly to Newt. Even so, if we were generous and just called it a split between them, that would make CA a wash and leave only 256 delegates remaining available.

With Newt winning a majority of delegates in states with nearly double the amount of delegates than the Romney’s states would have, the remaining unassigned states and territories would seem to have far too few delegates for Romney to overcome Newt’s lead. Another factor will be the margin of the win in each state (and thus a greater difference in delegates) and what’s proposed here is that Mitt’s wins, aside from a few states like MA and MI, may be much closer than Newt’s wins in Southern and very religious, conservative states.

So not only does Newt have a far greater number of delegates in the states he is projected herein to win but having a greater potential to win by big margins could give him an insurmountable advantage.

As mentioned above, many events could unfold in the weeks and months ahead that turn this scenario into an interesting but misguided exercise but if Romney and Gingrich remain in the general vicinity of where they are now, as the two main candidates who will have a showdown and if no massive bombshell intercedes between now and January, I think this scenario could indeed unfold as described.

Which would provide to Obama, the Democratic Party and 99% of Americans a giant collective sigh of relief and justifiable confidence that they will prevail by substantial margins in 2012.

After all, Obama running against the most obnoxious, vicious, racist, egomaniacal, elitist, child labor loving, Medicare and Social Security hating, adulterous, lobbyist career politician that the GOP could put up…sure works for me.

Written by AdLib

My motto is, "It is better to have blogged and lost hours of your day, than never to have blogged at all."

125 Responses so far.

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  1. agrippa says:

    The GOP will have to nominate someone, and the party is runnong out of people. It looks like it will be a matter of ‘the last one standing’.

  2. bito says:

    Faux news will be all over this with faux outrarge in 5… 4…. 3…2…

    Axelrod also noted that Gingrich has a long record that will be scrubbed and scrutinized.

    “So the question is, can he sustain this over time?,” Axelrod said.

    “I told my colleagues yesterday a bit of homespun wisdom that I got from an alderman in Chicago some years ago when one of his …colleagues wanted to run for higher office and he was really dubious. He said, ‘just remember the higher a monkey climbs on a pole, the more you can see his butt.’ So, you know, the Speaker is very high on the pole right now and we’ll see how people like the view.”

    http://blogs.suntimes.com/sweet/2011/12/axelrod_on_newt_the_higher_a_m.html

  3. foodchain says:

    Nate Silver, “Gingrich’s Unimpeachable Conservative Credential”
    http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

    I can’t believe Newt will advance without a lot of fun provided for the Democrats and I’m looking forward to it but, here’s Nate’s take:

    “I have seen a lot of other commentators bring up versions of this point, but there is a reason why Republicans, especially conservative Republicans, see Newt Gingrich as by far their most qualified nominee and why they have been willing so far to excuse his periodic lapses from conservative orthodoxy.

    The reason is simply that under Mr. Gingrich’s Congressional leadership, the Republican Party finally broke the New Deal coalition that had dominated American politics for more than a half-century, moving policy substantially to the right. That is a pretty impressive credential.

    • bito says:

      food, I can only partially agree with Mr. Silver, Newt was in the right place at the right time and not the leader of the pack. The move to the right began under Reagan, (when Newt was a back-bench-bomb-thower and he moved up due to longevity and the seniority system under effect at that time. It was the the “Raygun Democrats not the Gingrich Democrats. What followed was George Herbert, and the DLCer Bill Clinton. He takes credit for “welfare reform,” but that was a Clinton proposal.
      I agree with Nate because of the perception but not exactly the reality of it.

      • KQuark says:

        I agree with you more than Silver here. Don’t forget Clinton put on the Democratic platform to “reform welfare” with his triangulation. If Obama had betrayed an entitlement program like that he would be killed by the pro left.

        It indeed was Raygun whose presidency was the awful inflection point in our recent history.

      • foodchain says:

        Hi bito. Good news then. More room for attacks. I think many of Newt’s cohorts involved in the Ken Starr/Bill clinton fiasco lost their bids for re-election. Might be fun to revisit Newt’s escapades. Might do some people good. :-)

        • bito says:

          food, I happened to watch an old “Taxi” sitcom on the tube last night and Andy Kaufman (Latka) was on it, it got me to thinking about Andy and how he went off the deep end because of his believing in the characters he was playing were real. Will Newt get to that point at sometime, or has he already? 😆
          Newt may very well win the primary, but he does have some very dark and heavy baggage in his past and having them brought out again in the general bodes well for the Dems, IMHO

  4. SallyT says:

    AdLib, just for you. After seeing the polls today, you may say to me “I told”. However, you can not say “you so” just, yet. I have to hold out still a little longer. But, when you deserve something, you deserve something, so, I give you that so far. :)

    • AdLib says:

      Heh! Very kind of you but it’s early yet, nearly a month until the IA caucus so I’ll wait to see what those results are before saying either “I told you so” or the more sophisticated, “Told ya.”

  5. KQuark says:

    The most conservative parts of the base are having big problems with the two chooses it faces.

    (From Erick Erickson founder of RedState) I feel guilty for feeling this way, but I just don’t know that I can support [Gingrich] in the primary. Over Romney? Sure. Newt won’t be nearly as devastating down ballot as Romney if things go wrong for the GOP. But over Bachmann, Huntsman, and Perry in alphabetical order? I hope for a Perry rebound. He’s on his first wife still and has the most consistent record of conservative policies. And we hate the same people and institutions.

    We have the same general world view. But if Perry is not ready, I have to say I may have to seriously reconsider saying I’d never, ever, never vote for Jon Huntsman. He is more consistently conservative than either Newt or Romney, more pro-life than either, and a far more competent executive than either. He and Perry also are very real and sincere family men. Jon Huntsman clearly adores his family and I have concluded, despite my own misgivings about him, that he would govern more consistently to the right of Mitt Romney than even his campaign team would have us believe.

    I’ll support the nominee. Any of the Republicans will be better than Obama, regardless of the number of wives. I’m just not yet at a position where I think I can look myself in the mirror and be comfortable knowing I voted for a guy on his third wife who cheated on the first two. Honestly, it is more the cheating than the number of marriages. And even after moving his letter from the Baptist to the Catholic church, it seems he may have settled down on the marital front, but he’s still cheating on conservatives.

    http://andrewsullivan.thedailybeast.com/2011/12/the-agony-of-erick-erickson.html

    • escribacat says:

      At least the guy is honest about being a hater.

      • AdLib says:

        Yep, you gotta give him that. And as for Huntsman, no way. The Baggers would never back him and he’s not a brawler, that’s who the core wants which is another reason why Romney too is severely damaged.

        Romney has started spouting hateful BS about Obama but there’s no genuine nature to anything he does, it all comes off as phony.

        Romney could still win the nom, Newt could tank and Romney wins by default but it will hugely discourage the base no matter who he picks as a running mate (Chris Christie possibly but he really would need a Southerner).

  6. funksands says:

    UPDATED: Newt Gingrich misses Missouri primary filing deadline

    Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1111/68980.html#ixzz1fm78X3vh

    This is what not having a staff or a real campaign results in….

    • bito says:

      funk, I had read about this and tweeted it when it first broke, but this update has me confused.

      UPDATE – More from Juana Summers: Gingrich spokesman RC Hammond said the campaign had intentionally decided not to file paperwork to compete in Missouri’s primary.

      “There was a large filing fee to file for the Missouri primary. One of the reasons was, oh gee, let’s not spend any money to not get any delegates. We decided to save the cash,” he said.

      Hammond said Gingrich would be “ready to compete” in Missouri’s March caucuses.

      Asked why Gingrich was the only major Republican candidate to opt out of the Missouri’s non-binding primary he said: “Their lawyers bill them by the hour.”

      Missouri has a non-binding primary and a caucus? Is the caucus binding on the delegate selection?

      • AdLib says:

        How futile is that system? Missouri citizens vote in a meaningless primary and then the delegates are chosen by a caucus?

        I can’t say I blame Newt for conserving his Tiffany payments and not paying to participate in a meaningless primary.

        • bito says:

          AdLib, I have no idea how it works, but if it does work the way they suggest, you’re right, why even compete in the primary? (actually, I think the Gingrich campaign flat out screwed up and this was a spin.)

          • AdLib says:

            Heh! I was mistaken about Rick Perry doing what Newt is doing (when Perry first got in the race) so I’ve only got a .500 batting average so far.

            I have thought that only a RW radical could win with the Baggers controlling the primaries. Now, with the IA Caucus only a month away, Newt looks to be the one.

            Still…ya never know!

          • AdLib says:

            Absolutely, this is spin on a scre up. But, if it doesn’t hurt his pickup of delegates in Missouri, he’s very lucky.

            • bito says:

              Ya know, AdLib, I have been really trying to mount an argument against your analysis on Newt and his winning premise, but with KQ’s posting the Gallup and other polls, those “pesky facts” keep getting in my way. 😉

              Maybe next time! I quit, mercy rule! 😆

      • kesmarn says:

        New campaign motto? “$500,000 for Tiffany’s, but not a penny for filing fees!!” (It even rhymes.)

  7. AdLib says:

    According to today’s ABC News/Washington Post poll, Newt’s on the rise in IA with a huge and growing lead and the same is true nationally:

    Newt Gingrich has leapt to a sizable lead in preferences for the Iowa Republican caucuses, drawing on a rally from conservatives, positive views of his political experience and a sense he best represents “core Republican values” to push Mitt Romney into a trailing tie with Ron Paul.

    Given these views, 33 percent of likely Republican caucus-goers currently favor Gingrich for the GOP nomination, with 18 percent apiece for Romney and Paul. Rick Perry garners 11 percent support; Michele Bachmann, 8; Rick Santorum, 7; and Jon Huntsman, 2 percent.

    This poll, produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates, suggests that Gingrich holds the advantage to some extent because he lacks the negatives that are pulling back his top two rivals — for Romney, his record on health care and weak ratings on standing up for his beliefs; for Paul, his isolationist views and doubts about his electability.

    45 percent also see Romney’s legacy of mandatory health care in Massachusetts as a major reason to oppose him for the nomination, and 46 percent say the same about Paul’s opposition to U.S. military interventions overseas.

    Gingrich, by contrast, has no negative approaching that magnitude among likely caucus-goers in this survey — neither his views on immigration nor his marital history, seen as major shortcomings by just 15 and 16 percent, respectively.

    On personal attributes, Gingrich and Paul alike lead Romney by 2-1 margins as the candidate who’s most likely to “stand up for what he or she believes” — suggesting resonance in the charges that Romney’s been inconsistent on the issues. Both similarly lead Romney on empathy, as the candidate who “best understands the problems of people like you.” Indeed, on these attributes Romney is numerically in fourth place, also behind Bachmann (albeit not by a statistically significant margin).

    Gingrich, meanwhile, walks away with views that he’s got the best experience to be president: 43 percent say so, followed by a vastly lower 16 percent for Romney, 13 percent for Paul. And 29 percent pick Gingrich as having the best chance to defeat Obama. Twenty-four percent give Romney the best shot; Paul lags badly here, with just 8 percent.

    http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2011/12/iowan-conservatives-rally-to-gingrich-citing-experience-core-gop-values/

    • bito says:

      Interesting AdLib and it was good to see the poll was done with “likely caucus goers. This is most interesting point to me.

      45 percent also see Romney’s legacy of mandatory health care in Massachusetts as a major reason to oppose him for the nomination,

      How is it that the “likely caucus goers” don’t know that Gingrich was is still basically for the same thing?
      From this morning:

      Glenn Beck Confronts Gingrich With His 2011 Quote Supporting The Individual Mandate

      GINGRICH: All of a sudden responsibility to help pay for healthcare. And I think that there are ways to do it that make most libertarians relatively happy. I’ve said consistently we ought to have some requirement to either have health insurance or you post a bond or in some way you indicate you are going to be held accountable.

      VOICE: That is the individual mandate, is it not?

      GINGRICH: It’s a variation on it.

      Is it his calling it “a variation” give him a pass, or as you pointed out “2. Newt Has Been Pre-Disastered,” surely it can’t be “Anybody but Romney” could it? 😉

      http://thinkprogress.org/?s=Newt+Gingrich%2C+Individual+Mandate&x=0&y=0

      • AdLib says:

        It seems like voters, especially Repubs, only think in simple categorizations.

        Mitt is “The Businessman”, “The Flip Flopper” and “Romneycare” (among a few other simplistic definitions of him).

        Newt is “The Big Ideas Guy”, “The Doer” and “The Pit Bull”.

        Though the rest of us can process the variety of information about Newt, I don’t think the issue of health care sticks to him in the mind of Repubs. He didn’t get a law passed on it so it can just be dismissed as “he mispoke”.

        But I do think that Repubs think in simple labels so they will oppose Romney on Romneycare because he’s labeled with it but Newt isn’t so they just don’t pay attention to it.

  8. Nirek says:

    How can the republicans claim to be the “family values ” party when they have candidates like Newt ? Remember he was having an affair while bad mouthing Clinton and trying to impeach him for the same kind of thing. I for one do not trust him.

    • kesmarn says:

      They’re so good at double standards, aren’t they, Nirek?

      I’ve noticed that it’s perfectly okay for the Koch brothers or Rupert Murdoch to be rich, but it’s wrong for George Soros. In their bizarro world… And there are so many other examples.

      • audadvnc says:

        Repugs would support Satan Himself if he could beat Obama.

        • KQuark says:

          I think they already did since Newt would nominate Josh Bolton as SOS who would facilitate the end of days.

          • audadvnc says:

            Ding!!! I was working in a Mpls hotel during the 2008 RNC. As I stepped out of my office, I was nearly run over by Newt as he waddled by, intent on communing with his Blackberry between closed door meetings.

            Today at my hotel, we had a wild turkey camp out in our courtyard for a couple hours. He was more entertaining than any newts…

    • AdLib says:

      The GOP is like a hollow egg that has had its moral center sucked out. They may paint “Family Values” or “Fiscal Responsibility” on it but all it is, is superficial coloring of an empty shell.

  9. jjgravitas says:

    I really hope this election won’t be as nasty and mean spirited as I fear it will be. With the rich remorseless fat-cat mad-tea-party republicans on one side and the 99% occupy movement democrats on the other side, it could get rough. It may need to.

    • AdLib says:

      jjgravitas, I’m already resigned to the prospect of this being the most vicious election in our lives. This is the first Presidential election after Citizen’s United so corporate money will be drowning the airwaves.

      And this is the Baggers’ first Presidential election as an entity (though they used to be the “Moral Majority”).

      Add to that the prospect of Newt as the nominee and the table is set for the worst spectacle that we and the world have witnessed in an election of this magnitude.

      There is a silver lining to this though, the majority of Americans disdain hateful campaigns. Negative campaigning has been proven to work but typically, only in the short term. After an extended period, the public turns on the one launching the hostility and I’ll bet that will be the case in 2012.

      As for the face offs with OWS, I do think we’ll see increasing police brutality, violence and intolerance against them for the very fact that they represent a threat to the status quo.

      2012 may be 1967 all over, at least in terms of turmoil but the majority of Americans have been and will continue to be turned off by the negativity so in the end, I think it will be a cause for the defeat of those who perpetrate it.

  10. KQuark says:

    Well AdLib I was wrong and you were right about the teabaggers loving Newt.

    ” alt=”poll” />

    It looks like a big factor here is older voters like Newt and baggers were an even older demographic than I thought.

    ” width=”500″ height=”400″ alt=”poll” />

    Overall poll

    ” width=”500″ height=”430″ alt=”poll” />

    • AdLib says:

      Enlightening polls, KQ! It does seem to confirm that in general, the most motivated Repub voters are favoring Newt though they have proven undependable and fickle so far.

      I don’t think Newt had any idea he’d actually have a shot at winning the nom. He is probably on the verge of a nervous breakdown right now, imagining that all of his egotistical dreams could come true.

      I’ll bet it forces a number of mistakes…like the toadying to Trump but my thought is that as long as he wins or beats Romney in IA, Baggers will become so excited at the concept that he can win that they’ll overlook anything to get him elected.

      Really hoping Newt wins IA and that Romney doesn’t win big in NH. That could mean the beginning of the end for Romney and a poison pill in Newt on his way to win the nom.

      • KQuark says:

        The thing with Newt is he can make mistakes because he knows how to wiggle out of them effectively. He already made a mistake sounding too humane with undocumented aliens in a debate. Unless something huge new comes out his baggage almost helps him in a weird way with the GOP. You gotta remember the GOP invented group think and if he can just last through Iowa it’s gonna be tough to bring him down.

  11. SallyT says:

    AdLib, I luv ya but I haven’t moved from where I was Friday. Don’t think so…….

    • AdLib says:

      Totally cool but I would be interested to know what it is that convinces you of Romney’s inevitability.

      • SallyT says:

        I do hope, AdLib, that you are right and it will be Newt. But, I just think there is so much on this guy and some has been suppressed. However, with him being in the front now it will all come out again and refresh minds. I also have a feeling, and it is just me, that there is something out there on Newt that hasn’t totally been revealed but will be. He is the last one they can raise to the top and have tumbled down. No way they will go for Huntsman because he is another Mormon. It just leave Romney. But, I will take your “told you so” and really not be sad to hear it. 😉

        • AdLib says:

          Got it! However, couldn’t there be more to come out about Romney? It has just come out that he spent $100k in state funds to buy up all his admin’s computers and replace them, so he could hide all the emails. What if some of those emails surfaced?

          Also, Romney has been hiding what a jerk he is by avoiding interviews, he can’t do that forever. What will people think of him when he exposes who he really is through interviews like the Fox interview last week.

          They’re both seriously flawed, where the GOP seems to be at now is, whose flaws offend Baggers and whose don’t.

          On that count, they both have issues but Romney has less RW cred to insulate him.

          Romney could indeed win the nom and if he does, I will welcome your “told ya so” as well. In any case, Obama will sweep up the floor with whichever one it is.

  12. funksands says:

    I guess the question comes down to whether or not we can trust Newt as President. I can’t be the first here to wonder what happens when a younger, prettier, thinner country comes along and catches his eye?

    How embarrassing for us if he divorces America and starts shacking up with Moldava?

  13. bito says:

    Taking all your excellent analysis in mind AdLib, do you think Newt can go a whole month without saying something really outrageously dumb that would end his run? A month seems a long time for him to me.

    The “X-Factor?”

    • AdLib says:

      I don’t know that I would take that bet but I will say that the public won’t be paying much attention to what Newt says for the next month, with Xmas less than 3 weeks away and the IA primary right after New Year’s.

      Here’s my thinking on Newt, are Repubs flocking to him or away from Romney?

      I’d bet on the latter. So if it’s the case that people are supporting Newt because they absolutely do not want to support Romney…Newt has a License to Gaffe. There are no alternatives left so I think they will stick with him.

      And Mitt has really damaged his brand after last week so he’s not the most attractive alternative to Newt.

      • funksands says:

        Ad, that is something I would concur with. His reputation as an asshole precedes him. Nearly any vile, nasty flatulence that slithers from his piehole will simply be explained away by CNN (the best name in news) as “Newt being Newt”.

      • bito says:

        AdLib, “Newt has a License to Gaffe” ? Does he? He has up until now, but he has never been the front runner and he may looked at a little closer at the actual caucus goers in Iowa, they are the rabid. They may be thinking about X-mas and New Years, but they are “engaged!” with the caucus. Gingrich may be leading in the polls (and are they on actual caucus goers?) but his organization is very weak in IA and that is what it takes for a caucus (I have been to them in two states, nothing like IA’s but involved, I was among the rabid 😉 ).
        As the primary “season” goes on the leader of the week will have to start to look at the general and become more cautious (while still generating big bucks), and working on their organization, so I don’t see it quite so “straight-lined” as you do. Newt is and always been a backbench bomb thrower, can he tone it down after the first 5-10-15 primaries as a front runner and still win the primary in the end? I don’t know. The “big Mo” has crashed as often as not.

        Another “micro poll” from 3 R Veterans-- one absolutely PBO, one probably and one will vote GOP. All think Newt is full of “his hat.”

        How will Newt do in the general? Think Progress has 57 pages of links to articles, with more links, on him. http://thinkprogress.org/?s=Newt+Gingrich

        • AdLib says:

          In the General, Newt would be crushed by Obama because the rest of America does care about the background of who they vote in as President.

          That’s why I’m delighted that Newt may win the nom.

          Your points are well taken about the IA polls and whether they’re reflective of who will turn out for the caucus.

          Here’s some background on the latest poll from PPP:

          Newt Gingrich has taken the lead in PPP’s newest poll of Iowa Republican caucus voters with 27% to 18% for Ron Paul, 16% for Mitt Romney, 13% for Michele Bachmann, 9% for Rick Perry, 6% for Rick Santorum, 4% for Jon Huntsman, and 1% for Gary Johnson.

          Gingrich has gained 19 points since PPP’s last poll of the race in early October. Also showing momentum are Paul whose support is up 8% and Bachmann whose support is up 5%. Romney has dropped 6 points since then with the other candidates mostly standing in place.

          Gingrich’s rise to the top is being fueled by strong support from seniors and the Tea Party. With voters over 65 he’s at 37% leading Romney’s 18% and Paul’s 11% by 19 and 26 points respectively. With Tea Party voters Gingrich is at 35% with Bachmann actually coming in at second with 23%, Paul in third at 14%, and Romney all the way back at just 4%.

          http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2011/12/newt-up-in-iowa.html

          I do think that the rabid nature of the Tea Party will make up for Newt’s lack of organization in IA though I do think he has to pull together a semblance of organization quickly or risk losing some of these supporters.

          Would his supporters be likely to jump ship to Romney if Newt has a big gaffe in the next several weeks? Maybe but what I’ve seen of the TP are people who will look a fact right in the face and dispute it if it conflicts with their agenda.

          That being the case, I think many will turn off the reasoning center of their brains (if they have any) and just chant “Newt” to drown out any criticism or attacks that come his way.

          I must say though, I am giddy about watching the Trump moderated debate which Newt will be co-starring in. It will be the most absurd parody of Presidential politics we’ve ever seen. Have to live blog that one!

          • Emerald1943 says:

            Adlib, I was going to ask for a live blog if possible. This one is a “must watch” for sure! Anyone want to bet that the birther issue raises its ugly head??? You know Trump will not miss an opportunity to pontificate!


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