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funksands On November - 15 - 2011

Walking History

Robert Gates has served 9 different Presidents over the last 45 years.  Join us as we look back on that service and look forward on the challenges that face our nation.

 

Dr. Gates, thanks so much for joining me this evening.  I really appreciate your time.

Gates:  No problem happy to do it.  I live in Seattle area now, so this is really convenient for me.

Terrific.  Before we begin, lets cover some housekeeping?  First of all you and I are not really having dinner.  Second, this paraphrased conversation actually occurred during a keynote speech you gave at a conference recently to about 200 people.   I was at that conference and have turned the questions you were asked and the answers you gave into this format for the purposes of this article.  Did I cover everything?

Gates:  I believe so.  Is this legal?

We’ll find out won’t we?

First of all, you seem to have a very high degree of name recognition and approval among a large part of the electorate.  Would you consider running for office?

Gates:  Two words: Instant. Divorce.  There are a couple of reasons I relocated back to the Pacific Northwest.  First my wife is from this area and we really love it.  Second, it is as far away from DC as I can get without actually leaving the country.

That seems pretty definitive.  You’ve worked for 9 different Presidents over the last 45 years.  The stories you must have…

Gates: Oh for sure, some of them are pretty funny too.  I remember one time at the Vatican, I was there with President Nixon, SState Kissinger and a contingent of other delegates to meet with the Pope.  The Secretary of War at the time was Melvin Laird.  He was a bit of a loose cannon, so once we were in Italy Nixon instructed that he not be notified of the time and location of the meeting with the Pope.   Well the next day rolls around and who should come walking down the hall with a big cigar puffing?  Laird.  Kissenger begs him to at least put his cigar out before going into the audience with the Pope.   Laird complies, and sticks it in his pocket.  During the official visit Kissinger looks over and sees Laird patting himself on the chest, a thin tendril of smoke coming out of his pocket.  Moments later, Laird is frantically patting at his suit, smoke now billowing out.  Some of the rest of the audience, confused and sitting further away think its applause and start clapping.  Not only did our Sec Defense try to immolate himself, but the rest of the delegation was applauding him for it.

That’s pretty funny.  Any other good Kissinger stories?

Gates: Sure, Nixon met with Golda Meir in 1969  in the White House, she was accompanied by her Cambridge educated, very westernized foreign minister.  Nixon cracked: “Ms Meir isn’t it interesting that we both have jews as the heads of our state depts?”  Meir shot back: “Yes, but mine speaks English”.

Boy there aren’t enough good Golda Meir jokes around.  That was excellent.   Any other good ones pop into mind?

Gates:  I remember LBJ asking Bill Moyers to do the blessing at a dinner.  Moyers started and LBJ barked: “Bill I can’t hear you.  Speak up!”  Moyers responded: “Mr. President, I wasn’t speaking to you”.

Tell me about how you view the world today.  Where are the top risks in the world right now?

Gates:  In order, Iran, South Korea, and Pakistan

South Korea?

Gates: Yes, in the past provocation by the North was ignored by the South, they were viewed as the deranged cousin best ignored.  Now a sea change has taken place in the military and civilian leadership of that country.  If N. Korea tries some of the same provocations they’ve tried in the past, I fear S. Korea will retalitate.

Wow, I had no idea.  On that note, what about China?

Gates:  China is complicated.  One of the challenges they have is that the civilian leaders of the country keep control only by ensuring constant growth of the economy.  That has already slowed, and the only tool they really have left is nationalism.  The other challenge is that the People’s Liberation Army and the civilian govt. don’t really communicate much or see eye to eye on certain subjects.  I remember that one of my main goals was to keep both of our countries military leadership in communication with one another.  On one trip to support this effort I flew into Beijing and the military brass decided that day to unveil their new stealth fighter and put it on display for our arrival.   I was mad about that, and confronted Hu Jintao about that at our meeting.  He looked at me puzzled and then started speaking very rapidly to one of his aides.  He had no idea this had happened.  This is one example among many we experienced in our relationship with the Chinese.

Is conflict inevitable with the Chinese as they grow in influence and we pull back?

Gates: Not at all.  China does not want to be our enemy, nor should we want them to be.  However, if we treat them like one, they will respond in kind.

You did mention Iran as your top concern…

Gates:  Yes, Iran is a real puzzle.  I do believe that Iran possessing a nuclear weapon in the already destabilized Middle East would be a disaster.  They would not be subject to the NNPT, and other countries in the Middle East would quickly follow.  Isreal’s response is an unknown to me.

What do you mean by that?

Gates: My impression of the Isrealis is that they have always been much more tactical than strategic in how they handle crises in foreign affairs.  They are more likely to react, than to examine the issue from a long-term perspective.  I have no idea how they would react to Iran possessing a nuclear weapon.  I don’t think the Isrealis know how they would react.

Is bombing Iran an option?

Gates:  I certainly hope not.  Iran has sequestered their nuclear program in the middle of urban areas and deep underground in many many different locations.  Even the most precise bombing campaign would never take it all out.  At that point, the general population would forget all about their differences with the mullahs and would be unified against the rest of the world.

So….what are our other options?

Gates: There aren’t any good ones.

What about Russia, how important have they been to dealing with Iran?

Gates:  They have been very good partners lately.  Back in the 80’s and 90’s they never really seemed to understand how big a problem Iran could be for them.  They do now.  Russia has been very helpful in the UN lately and recently cancelled, with a significant financial penalty, a big shipment of weaponry for Iran.

What do you think of Putin?

Gates:  He and I have known each other for some time.  I was at a conference in Europe several years ago, and he was giving a speech about how the US was the cause of all the world’s problems etc etc etc.  After the speech I spoke to him briefly: “You know you and I are old cold-warriors going way back.  The difference now?  I went to re-education camp, and you never did”.  His recent announcement that he was going to run for another series of terms was disappointing but not surprising.  I felt that we could really work with Medveded, and I was hopeful that he’d stay on, but that obviously is not going to happen.

Let’s change gears.  What are some of the biggest differences between working for Presidents Bush and Obama?

Gates:  Well first of all let me say that each President I have worked for has been radically different.  Each has their own strengths and characteristics.  As far as the difference between the Bush and Obama administrations?  Honestly for me, it wasn’t all that different.  There is a tremendous amount of continuity in the Defense Dept. Things happen a certain way whoever the President is, and that is the case here.  As far as the men themselves are concerned, Bush was much more instinctual, while Obama is a lot more analytical.  He really likes to examine every problem from the top, bottom, left, and right before making a decision.  That’s the biggest difference in my opinion.

What were you doing on 9-11?

Gates: I was on a plane.  I was not in government at the time, and was flying to Chicago.  The captain came on the telecom and told us that the WTC had been attacked and that we were being told to land immediately.   We landed in Kansas City and I watched the events unfold on tv from a Kansas City hotel room.  I was there for 3 days.   After, I talked to my wife about feeling the need to serve a bit more, the events on 9-11 really compelled me to do so.  So I took the job of President of Texas A&M University.

How about domestically, any comments on our problems at home?

Gates: First of all, our problems are not going to be easy to solve.  The American people have consistently said that they want a government that they are not willing to pay for, and we have politicians that are only too willing to accomodate those wishes. What I can tell you is that anyone that says we can overcome these difficult challenges without revenues, cuts, and investments is simply not credible.

It is my firm belief that we won the Cold War because we had cohesive long-term vision of how to deal with and defeat the Soviet Union, regardless of who the President was.  Ultimately that is what won the day.  We face problems domestically that are equal in scale if not larger than the challenge of the Cold War.  We need a long-term, multi-administration, multi-Congress plan, approach and execution to solve them.  That is why I am so pessimistic about them being solved.

That’s encouraging.  Last question: How do the deals get done between actors internationally?  

Gates:  Two things really drive international diplomacy.  First is interests, that one is self-evident.  The other is personal relationships.  You would be very surprised to know how much gets done because of how you get along with someone.  I’ve known some of the actors on the international stage for 30-40 years.   That’s extremely important when it comes to getting things accomplished.

Do you have a recent example?

Gates:  Sure, during the Tahrir Square demonstrations I was  on the phone every other day with Defense Minister Tantawi, whom I’ve known for 30 years, begging him not to send tanks into Tahrir Square.  I’d like to think that had something to do with the relatively peaceful end to a very charged situation.   If there is anything I worry about now that I’ve retired, it is the loss of these personal relationships to the administration and the country.

Thank you Dr. Gates for your time, it was fascinating spending it with you.

Categories: History, News & Politics

Written by funksands

There are known knowns; there are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns; that is to say there are things that, we now know we don't know. But there are also unknown unknowns – there are things we do not know we don't know. Additionally there is bacon.

20 Responses so far.

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  1. escribacat says:

    Very interesting “interview,” Funk. It almost makes you think we have at least a section of our government that isn’t deadlocked and polarized by political b.s. I love that story about Melvin Laird. I remember hearing his name way back when…Gates really has been around a lot longer than I realized.

  2. Emerald1943 says:

    Hi Funk!

    Well done! Very entertaining, but more than that, very informative.

    I have a question about his inclusion of South Korea though. IMO, that’s not where the problem lies. South Korea is not the one who threatens it neighbors, firing missiles over their heads. That being said, if that is Mr. Gates’ opinion, oh well…

    Gates is a very interesting man and one that I would love to sit and talk with. I also liked his analysis of PBO’s style.

    I loved your piece! Very nice! :-)

    • funksands says:

      Em, thank you. Like with Kalima below, I feel that I wasn’t quite fair in how I portrayed Gates’ comment on S. Korea. I shortened it quite a bit. He certainly wasn’t calling S.Korea itself a threat, he was simply saying that the sea change in the civilian and military leadership in S. Korea makes their reactions to crazy N. Korea very unpredictable.

  3. Khirad says:

    Second, it is as far away from DC as I can get without actually leaving the country.

    And I always loved that it felt just like that.

    Nothing on his “deep admiration” for Bibi Netanyahu?

    I’ve always enjoyed his candor on how things get done. I especially love the Pakistan-US relationship when he stated the obvious: countries, even allies, lie to each other.

    Duh.

    • funksands says:

      Khirad, nothing on his man-crush for bibi :-) It was interesting to hear him describe how Israel itself may have no idea of how it is going to respond to a nuclear Iran. That was a little chilling.

      • Khirad says:

        I agree with Gates there. I think a lot of it is posturing. I’m well aware they’ve taken out nuclear sites in Iraq and Syria, but from I’ve read from different voices in Israel, Mossad, the IDF and all the advisers and officers within those are not all agreed on what to do either. If you read between the lines you might say they were bluffing. Then again, maybe that’s what they want you to think. But I don’t think it’s a bluff that they are in a very tight bind over their options in such a case.

        I think Bob is just playing hard to get with Bibi.

  4. SallyT says:

    Funk, what can I say…..Where there you go.

    Very nice article with your usual pizzazz!

  5. kesmarn says:

    Funk, I just have to give you 10 stars for this one. This is a terrific article — written with style, flair and humor — and yet really substantive and informative, too.

    I feel that it may have not gotten quite all the attention it very much deserves because it’s been such a busy day and the OWS situation kinda buried it. I really hope — no, I urge — everyone to read this.

    It’s really just wonderful. 😀

    • funksands says:

      Kes, thank you very much. I really appreciate it. I was pleasantly struck by how much of an effect this little gnome of a man had on me during the hour he spoke. I really began to get a small glimpse of why he remained gainfully employed by 9 administrations.

      We’ve all seen him speak publicly and he has a reputation for candidness. But to hear him speak so freely about his experiences, how he felt, his frustrations, was really enjoyable.

  6. MurphTheSurf3 says:

    Hey funk…..what was the conference? Was there a formal address with a Q and A to follow or does this represent the whole?

    Here is what I found most interesting:

    A) Bush instinctual (goes with his gut) and Obama analytical (uses his head). I know which one I prefer.

    B) Most dangerous. Iran- obvious for obvious reasons. S. Korea -- really intriguing. Did he suggest that the South is more militaristic, more jingoistic? We know the North is much, much weaker and cannot count on China. Pakistan- I can think of several reasons Nuclear, Unstable, Military vs. Fundamentalists, India Rivalry.

    C) What drives International Diplomacy? Interests and Relationships. Same thing for our government. When there is no sense of shared interests and developing relationship- no progress. No Movement.

    D) His insight re. the DOD operating independently of administration change…. a bit assuring in that we are not a banana republic and there are systems and rules that transcend regime change; and a bit worrisome in that it seems to confirm how deeply institutionalized the military industrial complex is.

    Nice job. Funk. Good stuff to think about.

    • funksands says:

      Murph, he gave a brief talk and then followed up with Q&A from the audience. I was pleased that the Q&A was allowed to go on as long as it did.

      Yeah, S. Korea really surprised me as well, the broad inference I got from his statement supports your suggestion.

      My reaction to his comment re: the continuity of the Defense Dept. was exactly the same as yours.

      Glad you enjoyed it!

      • Kalima says:

        I would have to disagree with his choice of S. Korea, and when the North shoot on the population of your islands what are you supposed to do, when it only took the kidnapping of a few soldiers from Israel to start a full scale war with Lebanon, sounds like cherry picking and double standards to me. At the moment with everything that is being said by Israel, I would put them on the list for threatening to attack Iran, which might have us all in the middle of another world war.

        The real nutcase sits in N. Korea, with most of his warheads on missiles pointed at Tokyo. I suppose if you don’t live in the region, it’s easy not to perceive the threat this country poses to all of us living in Asia. After failed missile launches that either fell into the Sea of Japan, or flew over Japan to land in the Pacific, I know who I and the rest of this part of the world would name as an immediate threat, and it’s not the S. Koreans.

        • funksands says:

          Kalima your comment is totally accurate and fair. To his credit, his comment on S.Korea was longer and had a lot more context. The point he was making was not that N. Korea wasn’t nuts, but that S. Korea is no longer the same political actor it was for the last 40 years. This has added an element of unpredictability to an already unpredictable situation.

          • Kalima says:

            The point I was making was that any country has a right to protect their citizens if they are coming under attack. S. Korea warned the North and returned some fire, Israel started a full scale offensive that killed many innocent women, children and citizens, but that of course is not mentioned because the U.S. blindly supports them and their wrong doing. A convenient omission I would say, and unfortunately, something that pisses me off.

            Again, S. Korea should never be on that list, you can have open dialogue with this country, they don’t deserve to be on anyone’s list along with Iran and Pakistan.

            Oh, I forgot to say that I thoroughly enjoyed your post, it was refreshing, especially the way you presented it. Well done. :)

  7. SueInCa says:

    Funk You know I ave always been on the fence with Gates. He always seemed to be reasonable and honest but I have been known to make errors in people judgment before. From reading this I believe he would be fascinating to sit and talk to about all his exploits. He has some pretty deep thoughts about people and countries around the world. There is definitely nothing shallow about Gates.

    • funksands says:

      Sue, he was pretty self-critical about who he was 30 years ago and who he is now. He described himself as a true-blue cold-warrior that believed with every fiber of his being in the essential evil of the Soviets. Gorbachev even joked about Gates “hopefully someday being out of job” as US and USSR relations improved. But he certainly seemed very genuine and thoughtful in the brief period of time I got to hear him speak.


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